Global Assessment of Compound Climate Extremes and Exposures of Population, Agriculture, and Forest Lands Under Two Climate Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Tayler Schillerberg, Di Tian

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the global occurrence and intensity of heatwaves, extreme precipitation, flash droughts. However, it not well understood how compound heatwave, drought events will likely change, population, agriculture, forest be exposed these under future climate scenarios. This research uses eight CMIP6 models assess current events, as forestry exposures two scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1‐2.6 SSP5‐8.5 for three time periods: early‐, mid‐, late‐ 21st century. extremes are derived droughts using locational‐dependent thresholds. We find that heatwaves result in largest increases exposure populations, lands, late‐century projections sequential Late‐century show hot spots population greater than 50 million person‐events China, India, Europe; agriculture land 90 thousand km 2 ‐events South America, Oceania; 120 Oceania America regions when compared historical period. The findings from this study can potentially useful informing adaptations.

Language: Английский

Spatiotemporal variations in eco-environmental quality and responses to drought and human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China from 1990 to 2022 DOI Creative Commons
Gexia Qin, Ninglian Wang, Yuwei Wu

et al.

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 81, P. 102641 - 102641

Published: May 8, 2024

The middle reaches of the Yellow River basin (MYRB) are among regions most severely affected by soil erosion globally. It has always held a pivotal role in and water conservation ecological restoration efforts China. Nonetheless, face recurrent drought occurrences growing human intervention, there have been notable alterations eco-environmental quality (EEQ) within MYRB. However, influences intervention on EEQ MYRB remain unclear. In this study, remote sensing index (RSEI) was applied to quantify spatiotemporal changes contributions land use type transitions from 1990 2022. results showed that fluctuated significantly exhibited weak overall improvement trend over past 33 years. proportion good excellent grades for improved, while poor fair decreased, especially northern regions. follows phased pattern. During periods 1990–2002 2011–2022, an improving is observed, period 2003–2010 shows no significant change EEQ. Drought had strongest influence 2003 2010, followed 2002, lesser impact 2011 primarily positively influenced spring, autumn winter droughts negatively summer droughts, arid grassland unused areas. improved during initial final phases projects, with drought. increase project implementation less noticeable, period.

Language: Английский

Citations

23
Characteristic changes in compound drought and heatwave events under climate change DOI
Chuan Wang, Zhi Li, Yaning Chen

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 305, P. 107440 - 107440

Published: April 23, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Temporal and spatial changes of extreme precipitation and its related large-scale climate mechanisms in the arid region of Northwest China during 1961–2022 DOI
Qixiang Liang, Yaning Chen, Weili Duan

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 133182 - 133182

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Spatial-temporal evolution and intrinsic drivers of compound drought and heatwave events in Mainland China DOI

Shi Penghui,

Yi Li, Asim Biswas

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 948, P. 174834 - 174834

Published: July 19, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought and Its Driving Factors in the Yellow River Basin Based on a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index DOI Creative Commons
Chong Wei, Danhui Su,

Dongbao Zhao

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 145 - 145

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

As a natural disaster, drought can endanger global ecology, socio-economic systems, and sustainable development. To address sudden droughts in the future, assess disasters, propose mitigation measures, in-depth research on spatiotemporal variations driving factors of meteorological is essential. study Yellow River Basin, we calculated multi-scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), derived from monthly data recorded at weather stations 1968 to 2019. We examined features its using trend-free pre-whitening Mann–Kendall (TFPW-MK) test Sen’s slope estimator, as well frequency analysis, center gravity migration model, standard deviation ellipse geographic detector. Our analysis shows that (1) 2019, Basin exhibited shift aridity increased moisture an annual basis, with smallest SPEI −1.47 2002 indicating moderate drought; SPEI3 showed growing tendency all seasons, particularly winter (0.00388/year), followed by spring (0.00214/year), summer (0.00232/year), fall (0.00196/year). The higher fluctuations compared annual-scale SPEI12; (2) terms spatial variability, there was no significant change conditions any scale, probability event being greater eastern northwestern portions watershed. epicenter migrate southwestward; (3) among seven factors, land use night lighting were dominant affecting conditions, force values 0.75 0.63, respectively.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Increased frequency and severity of global compound dry and heat wave events in a daily scale DOI
Lijun Jiang, Jiahua Zhang, Linyan Bai

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132857 - 132857

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Interannual relationship between moist heat waves in South China and tropical Indian ocean sea surface temperature anomalies and possible mechanisms during boreal summer DOI
Sicheng Wu, Dachao Jin, Xudong Wang

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Emerging trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train in a warming climate DOI Creative Commons
Jee‐Hoon Jeong, Min‐Seok Kim, Jin‐Ho Yoon

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(18)

Published: May 2, 2025

Since the late 20th century, an emerging atmospheric teleconnection pattern, trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train, has intensified remarkably during summer, correlating with a surge in concurrent events from Eastern Europe to East Asia. Tree-ring proxies, spanning three centuries, reveal that recent intensity of this pattern is unprecedented historical records. In contrast, circumglobal teleconnection, which historically dominated continental-scale Eurasian heatwave occurrences, shown no discernible trend amid global warming. Consequently, signifies radical shift climatologies. The mechanism involves Rossby wave propagation linked warming sea surface temperatures Northwestern Atlantic and enhanced Sahel precipitation, both amplified recently by overlapping effects anthropogenic natural variability. Land-atmosphere interactions driven soil moisture deficits further regionally. Climate models predict forcings will continue strengthen throughout century.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change DOI Creative Commons
Fang Pei, Taihua Wang, Dawen Yang

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Jan. 14, 2025

Under climate change, China faces intensifying compound extreme events with serious socio-economic ramifications, yet their future variations remain poorly understood. Here, we estimate historical hotspots and changes of two typical events, i.e., sequential heatwave precipitation (SHP) concurrent drought (CDH) across China, leveraging a bivariate bias correction method to adjust projections from global models. Results show substantial increases in frequency, duration, magnitude for both the durations projected double nationwide. The are more evident under higher emission scenarios, could be largely underestimated if neglecting variable dependence during process. will escalate exposure China's major urban clusters, among which Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao face highest risk. Our findings underscore necessity carbon controls, call adaptive measures mitigate threats induced by rising hazards changing climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Assessing the Deadly Heat Waves Over South Asian Cities: An Insights From UTCI and WBGT Indices DOI Creative Commons
Najeebullah Khan, Sajjad Ahmad, Shamsuddin Shahid

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 3, 2025

ABSTRACT This study analysed South Asia's most devastating heat waves over the past four decades using ERA5 hourly reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Two stress indices, Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), were employed to evaluate characteristics, meteorological variable behaviour diurnal temperature range (DTR) across selected cities. The findings revealed that while both indices effectively captured wave events, WBGT demonstrated superior performance, particularly in assessing nighttime stress, where UTCI often underestimated severity. For instance, during 1995 Bareilly, daytime exceeded extreme threshold of 46.0°C second event but dropped close lower limit 26.0°C at night. In contrast, consistently remained above lowest 25.6°C. Karachi (2015), surpassed level 32.2°C day 25.6°C night consecutive days. Inland marked by air spikes 40°C reduced wind speeds (below 2 m/s), coastal cities like Visakhapatnam experienced prolonged values fluctuating between 38.0°C 46.0°C. DTR analysis further fluctuations exceeding 20°C inland within a 6.6°C range, highlighting its stability better representation persistent stress. Further results higher sensitivity local variables relative humidity speed has made it effective regions with high humidity.

Language: Английский

Citations

0