Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 175 - 312

Published: May 24, 2022

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Language: Английский

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Alternative agriculture land-use transformation pathways by partial-equilibrium agricultural sector model: a mathematical approach

International Journal of Information Technology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Aug. 31, 2024

Language: Английский

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Microbial growth under drought is confined to distinct taxa and modified by potential future climate conditions

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Sept. 22, 2023

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of drought events, affecting soil functions including carbon sequestration nutrient cycling, which are driven by growing microorganisms. Yet we know little about microbial responses to due methodological limitations. Here, estimate growth rates in montane grassland soils exposed ambient conditions, drought, potential future climate conditions (i.e., 6 years elevated temperatures CO2 levels). For this purpose, combined 18O-water vapor equilibration with quantitative stable isotope probing (termed 'vapor-qSIP') measure taxon-specific dry soils. In our experiments, caused >90% bacterial archaeal taxa stop dividing reduced persisting ones. Under accounted for only 4% total community as compared 35% controls. Drought-tolerant communities were dominated specialized members Actinobacteriota, particularly genus Streptomyces. Six pre-exposure (3 °C warming + 300 ppm atmospheric CO2) alleviated effects on growth, through more drought-tolerant across major phyla, accounting 9% community. Our results provide insights into response active microbes today a climate, highlight importance studying combination capture interactive improve predictions soil-climate feedbacks.

Language: Английский

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Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: March 12, 2024

Abstract Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely safeguard most of world’s coral reefs. This prognosis primarily based a small subset available models apply similar ‘excess heat’ threshold methodologies. Our systematic review 79 articles projecting reef responses climate revealed five main methods. ‘Excess constituted one third (32%) all studies but attracted disproportionate share (68%) citations in field. Most methods relied deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding field’s ability estimate uncertainty. To synthesize projections, we aimed identify with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices model outputs and scenarios limited analysis fraction studies. We found substantial discrepancies projected impacts, indicating serving basis for syntheses may project more severe consequences other Drawing insights from fields, propose incorporate uncertainty into modeling approaches multi-model ensemble approach generating projections futures.

Language: Английский

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Trend analysis and change point detection in precipitation time series over the Eastern Province of Rwanda during 1981–2021

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 156(2)

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

This study examines trends and change points in agroclimatic variables at 56 meteorological stations' locations region levels Rwanda's Eastern Province from 1981 to 2021. We used the Mann–Kendall Regional Kendall tests, along with Sen's Slope Sequential Rank Statistic analyse six key agricultural indicators: seasonal rainfall totals, number of rainy days, intensity (light, moderate, heavy), onset cessation dates, season duration. In March May (MAM) season, 39 out stations recorded a decreasing trend, significant observed eight south. Conversely, 17 showed increasing trends, only one north being significant. Regionally, trend was non-significant decrease. September December (SOND) 31 (one significant) experienced trends. Among 25 showing The regional indicates increase. Onset days 41 (12 both MAM SOND SOND. Season duration increased 43 (five 48 (six significant), Heavy indicate significantly MAM. point most occurred between 2000–2020 1980–2000, respectively. These fluctuations have affected practices led crop failures, emphasizing region's need for better climate information services adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Global Water Security 2023 Assessment

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

UNU INWEH's mission is to help resolve pressing water challenges that are of concern the United Nations, its Member States, and their people, through critical analysis synthesis existing bodies scientific discovery; targeted research identifies emerging policy issues; application on-the-ground scalable science-based solu-

Language: Английский

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Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 13, 2023

Abstract The world’s warm deserts are predicted to experience disproportionately large temperature increases due climate change, yet the impacts on global desert biodiversity remain poorly understood. Because species in live close their physiological limits, additional warming may induce local extinctions. Here, we combine change projections with biophysical models and distributions predict of birds globally. Our results show heterogeneous between within deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns do not simply mirror air changes. Climate refugia, defined as areas high avian diversity low impacts, persist varying extents different realms. Only a small proportion (<20%) refugia fall existing protected areas. analysis highlights need increase protection refugial protect from change.

Language: Английский

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ZIF‐8@CsPbBr₃ Nanocrystals Formed by Conversion of Pb to CsPbBr₃ in Bimetallic MOFs for Enhanced Photocatalytic CO₂ Reduction

Small Methods, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 20, 2024

Abstract Perovskite nanocrystals are embedded into metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) to create composites with high light absorption coefficients, tunable electronic properties, specific surface area, and metal atom tunability for enhanced photocatalytic carban dioxide (CO 2 ) reduction. However, existing perovskite‐MOF structures a large particle size achieved based on Pb source adsorption the pores of MOFs, which can significantly break down porous structure, thereby resulting in decreased area impacting CO adsorption. Herein, novel structure synthesis bimetallic Pb‐containing MOFs post‐processing convert CsPbBr 3 (NCs) is proposed. It discovered that additional not introduced by adsorption, but instead engages coordination generates Pb‐N. The produced ZIF‐8@CsPbBr NCs ≈40 nm have an ultra‐high 1325.08 m g −1 , excellent photovoltaic characteristics, beneficial conversion rate 450 mol h more than three times pure perovskites. Additionally, superior reduction capacity sustained after undergoing four cycles. Density Functional Thoery (DFT) simulations used explore 3D charge density at interface better understand electrical structure.

Language: Английский

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A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(11), P. 4533 - 4559

Published: June 5, 2024

Abstract. In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports special reports, as well their respective chapters. Within ambition is to integrate knowledge possible climate futures across Groups scientific research domains based small set “framing pathways” such so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in Fifth IPCC Report (AR5) shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) Sixth (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at Bangkok workshop April 2023 “Use Scenarios AR6 Subsequent Assessments”, intended serve one community contributions highlight needs for next generation framing that being advanced under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate AR7 consideration pathways. Here we suggest several policy objectives should ideally fulfil, including mitigation meeting Paris Agreement objectives, risks associated carbon removal strategies, consequences delay enacting mitigation, guidance adaptation needs, loss damage, achieving wider context societal development goals. Based this context, Earth system models evolve towards emission (REPs) key categories These address most critical plans need be implemented over 10 years. our view, important those relevant long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C delayed (high pathway. Two other category approximately line current (as expressed 2023) near- higher-emission “current policies” 2023). We also argue relevance exploring two “worlds could have been”. One these has high-emission trajectories above what implied policies very-low-emission assume global limiting warming without overshoot had begun 2015. Finally, note timely provision new information inform implementation policy. Under Agreement, second stocktake, occur 2028, subsequent nationally determined (NDCs) up 2040, inputs required 2027. carefully considered timeline modelling activities, CMIP7.

Language: Английский

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Eutrophication of Estuarine and Coastal Marine Environments: An Emerging Climatic-Driven Paradigm Shift

Open Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(04), P. 289 - 324

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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