Phylodynamic
models
can
be
used
to
estimate
diversification
trajectories
from
time-calibrated
phylogenies.
Here
we
apply
two
such
phylogenies
of
non-avian
dinosaurs,
a
clade
whose
evolutionary
history
has
been
widely
debated.
Although
some
authors
have
suggested
that
the
experienced
decline
in
diversity,
potentially
starting
millions
years
before
end-Cretaceous
mass
extinction,
others
group
remained
highly
diverse
right
up
until
Cretaceous-Paleogene
(K-Pg)
boundary.
Our
results
show
model
assumptions,
likely
with
respect
incomplete
sampling,
large
impact
on
whether
dinosaurs
appear
long-term
or
not.
The
are
also
sensitive
topology
and
branch
lengths
phylogeny
used.
Developing
comprehensive
sampling
bias,
building
larger
more
accurate
phylogenies,
necessary
steps
for
us
determine
dinosaur
diversity
was
not
extinction.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
380(1919)
Published: Feb. 13, 2025
The
effect
of
traits
on
diversification
rates
is
a
major
topic
study
in
the
fields
evolutionary
biology
and
palaeontology.
Many
researchers
investigating
these
macroevolutionary
questions
currently
make
use
extensive
suite
state-dependent
speciation
extinction
(SSE)
models.
These
models
were
developed
for,
are
almost
exclusively
used
with,
phylogenetic
trees
extant
species.
However,
analyses
considering
only
taxa
limited
their
power
to
estimate
rates.
Furthermore,
SSE
can
erroneously
detect
associations
between
neutral
when
true
associated
trait
not
observed.
In
this
study,
we
examined
impact
including
fossil
data
accuracy
parameter
estimates
under
binary-state
(BiSSE)
model.
This
was
achieved
by
combining
with
fossilized
birth–death
process.
We
show
that
inclusion
fossils
improves
extinction-rate
for
applying
BiSSE
model
Bayesian
inference
framework,
no
negative
speciation-rate
state
transition-rate
compared
from
taxa.
even
addition
data,
continued
incorrectly
identify
correlations
traits.
article
part
theme
issue
‘“A
mathematical
theory
evolution”:
dating
back
100
years’.
Royal Society Open Science,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
11(8)
Published: Aug. 1, 2024
Phylogenetic
models
are
commonly
used
in
palaeobiology
to
study
the
patterns
and
processes
of
organismal
evolution.
In
human
sciences,
phylogenetic
methods
have
been
deployed
for
reconstructing
ancestor-descendant
relationships
using
linguistic
material
culture
data.
Within
evolutionary
archaeology
specifically,
analyses
based
on
maximum
parsimony
discrete
traits
dominate,
which
sets
limitations
downstream
role
cultural
phylogenies,
once
derived,
can
play
more
elaborate
analytical
pipelines.
Recent
methodological
advances
Bayesian
phylogenetics,
however,
now
allow
us
infer
dynamics
continuous
characters.
Capitalizing
these
developments,
we
here
present
an
exploratory
analysis
macroevolution
projectile
point
shape
evolution
European
Final
Palaeolithic
earliest
Mesolithic
(approx.
15
000-11
000
BP)
a
phylodynamic
approach
fossilized
birth-death
process
model.
This
model-based
leaps
far
beyond
application
parsimony,
that
it
not
only
produces
tree,
but
also
divergence
times,
diversification
rates
while
incorporating
uncertainties.
allows
compare
pronounced
climatic
changes
occurred
during
our
time
frame.
While
common
language,
extension
arguably
represents
major
breakthrough.
Biology Letters,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
20(12)
Published: Dec. 1, 2024
Much
of
our
view
on
Mesozoic
dinosaur
diversity
is
obscured
by
biases
in
the
fossil
record.
In
particular,
spatiotemporal
sampling
heterogeneity
affects
identification
timing
and
geographical
location
radiations,
recognition
latitudinal
gradient,
as
well
interpretation
purported
extinctions,
faunal
turnovers
their
drivers,
including
Early
Jurassic
Jenkyns
Event
across
Jurassic/Cretaceous
boundary.
The
current
distribution
means
it
impossible
to
robustly
determine
whether
these
'events'
were
globally
synchronous
geologically
instantaneous
or
spatiotemporally
staggered.
Accounting
for
also
paramount
reconciling
notable
differences
results
based
sampling-standardized
species
richness
versus
reconstructions
diversification
rates,
particularly
with
regards
lead-up
Cretaceous/Paleogene
mass
extinction.
Incorporation
a
greater
proportion
stratigraphically
well-resolved
dinosaurs
into
analyses
imperative
must
include
substantial
radiation
birds.
Given
relative
rarity
temporally
successive,
well-sampled
spatial
windows,
remains
possible
that
rate
showed
little
change
after
clade's
initial
until
However,
better
understanding
underlying
sampling,
combined
holistic
approach
reconstructing
diversification,
an
important
step
testing
this
hypothesis.
Phylodynamic
models
can
be
used
to
estimate
diversification
trajectories
from
time-calibrated
phylogenies.
Here
we
apply
two
such
phylogenies
of
non-avian
dinosaurs,
a
clade
whose
evolutionary
history
has
been
widely
debated.
Although
some
authors
have
suggested
that
the
experienced
decline
in
diversity,
potentially
starting
millions
years
before
end-Cretaceous
mass
extinction,
others
group
remained
highly
diverse
right
up
until
Cretaceous-Paleogene
(K-Pg)
boundary.
Our
results
show
model
assumptions,
likely
with
respect
incomplete
sampling,
large
impact
on
whether
dinosaurs
appear
long-term
or
not.
The
are
also
sensitive
topology
and
branch
lengths
phylogeny
used.
Developing
comprehensive
sampling
bias,
building
larger
more
accurate
phylogenies,
necessary
steps
for
us
determine
dinosaur
diversity
was
not
extinction.
Phylodynamic
models
can
be
used
to
estimate
diversification
trajectories
from
time-calibrated
phylogenies.
Here
we
apply
two
such
phylogenies
of
non-avian
dinosaurs,
a
clade
whose
evolutionary
history
has
been
widely
debated.
Although
some
authors
have
suggested
that
the
experienced
decline
in
diversity,
potentially
starting
millions
years
before
end-Cretaceous
mass
extinction,
others
group
remained
highly
diverse
right
up
until
Cretaceous-Paleogene
(K-Pg)
boundary.
Our
results
show
model
assumptions,
likely
with
respect
incomplete
sampling,
large
impact
on
whether
dinosaurs
appear
long-term
or
not.
The
are
also
sensitive
topology
and
branch
lengths
phylogeny
used.
Developing
comprehensive
sampling
bias,
building
larger
more
accurate
phylogenies,
necessary
steps
for
us
determine
dinosaur
diversity
was
not
extinction.
Phylodynamic
models
can
be
used
to
estimate
diversification
trajectories
from
time-calibrated
phylogenies.
Here
we
apply
two
such
phylogenies
of
non-avian
dinosaurs,
a
clade
whose
evolutionary
history
has
been
widely
debated.
Although
some
authors
have
suggested
that
the
experienced
decline
in
diversity,
potentially
starting
millions
years
before
end-Cretaceous
mass
extinction,
others
group
remained
highly
diverse
right
up
until
Cretaceous-Paleogene
(K-Pg)
boundary.
Our
results
show
model
assumptions,
likely
with
respect
incomplete
sampling,
large
impact
on
whether
dinosaurs
appear
long-term
or
not.
The
are
also
sensitive
topology
and
branch
lengths
phylogeny
used.
Developing
comprehensive
sampling
bias,
building
larger
more
accurate
phylogenies,
necessary
steps
for
us
determine
dinosaur
diversity
was
not
extinction.
Phylodynamic
models
can
be
used
to
estimate
diversification
trajectories
from
time-calibrated
phylogenies.
Here
we
apply
two
such
phylogenies
of
non-avian
dinosaurs,
a
clade
whose
evolutionary
history
has
been
widely
debated.
Although
some
authors
have
suggested
that
the
experienced
decline
in
diversity,
potentially
starting
millions
years
before
end-Cretaceous
mass
extinction,
others
group
remained
highly
diverse
right
up
until
Cretaceous-Paleogene
(K-Pg)
boundary.
Our
results
show
model
assumptions,
likely
with
respect
incomplete
sampling,
large
impact
on
whether
dinosaurs
appear
long-term
or
not.
The
are
also
sensitive
topology
and
branch
lengths
phylogeny
used.
Developing
comprehensive
sampling
bias,
building
larger
more
accurate
phylogenies,
necessary
steps
for
us
determine
dinosaur
diversity
was
not
extinction.
Phylodynamic
models
can
be
used
to
estimate
diversification
trajectories
from
time-calibrated
phylogenies.
Here
we
apply
two
such
phylogenies
of
non-avian
dinosaurs,
a
clade
whose
evolutionary
history
has
been
widely
debated.
Although
some
authors
have
suggested
that
the
experienced
decline
in
diversity,
potentially
starting
millions
years
before
end-Cretaceous
mass
extinction,
others
group
remained
highly
diverse
right
up
until
Cretaceous-Paleogene
(K-Pg)
boundary.
Our
results
show
model
assumptions,
likely
with
respect
incomplete
sampling,
large
impact
on
whether
dinosaurs
appear
long-term
or
not.
The
are
also
sensitive
topology
and
branch
lengths
phylogeny
used.
Developing
comprehensive
sampling
bias,
building
larger
more
accurate
phylogenies,
necessary
steps
for
us
determine
dinosaur
diversity
was
not
extinction.
Phylodynamic
models
can
be
used
to
estimate
diversification
trajectories
from
time-calibrated
phylogenies.
Here
we
apply
two
such
phylogenies
of
non-avian
dinosaurs,
a
clade
whose
evolutionary
history
has
been
widely
debated.
Although
some
authors
have
suggested
that
the
experienced
decline
in
diversity,
potentially
starting
millions
years
before
end-Cretaceous
mass
extinction,
others
group
remained
highly
diverse
right
up
until
Cretaceous-Paleogene
(K-Pg)
boundary.
Our
results
show
model
assumptions,
likely
with
respect
incomplete
sampling,
large
impact
on
whether
dinosaurs
appear
long-term
or
not.
The
are
also
sensitive
topology
and
branch
lengths
phylogeny
used.
Developing
comprehensive
sampling
bias,
building
larger
more
accurate
phylogenies,
necessary
steps
for
us
determine
dinosaur
diversity
was
not
extinction.