Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(24), P. 3693 - 3693

Published: Dec. 21, 2024

In the context of growing concerns over food security and climate change, research on sustainable agricultural development increasingly emphasizes interconnections within systems. This study developed a regionally integrated optimization prediction model to systematically analyze impacts change systems their feedback mechanisms from water-energy-food-carbon (WEFC) nexus perspective. Applied Pearl River Basin, evaluates future trends in grain yield, water use, energy consumption, carbon emissions under various scenarios throughout this century. The results indicate that rising temperatures significantly reduce crop yields, particularly western basin, increasing environmental footprint per unit produced. However, CO2 fertilization effect substantially offsets these negative impacts. Under SSP585 scenario, concentrations 599.77 ppm 1135.21 by century’s end led shift yield (Z = −7.03) positive 11.01). also reduces water, energy, footprints 12.82%, 10.62%, 10.59%, respectively. These findings highlight critical importance adaptive management strategies, including precision irrigation, optimized fertilizer climate-resilient practices, ensure production. Despite insights, has limitations. Future should incorporate uncertainty analysis, diverse adaptation pathways, advanced technologies such as machine learning remote sensing improve predictive accuracy applicability. offers valuable guidance for mitigating adverse WEFC nexus, supporting practices science-based policy development.

Language: Английский