Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 7(9), P. 627 - 637

Published: Aug. 17, 2014

Language: Английский

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Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK Experiments With CNRM‐CM6‐1

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 11(7), P. 2177 - 2213

Published: June 1, 2019

Abstract This paper describes the main characteristics of CNRM‐CM6‐1, fully coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model sixth generation jointly developed by Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) and Cerfacs for phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The provides a description each component including coupling method new online output software. We emphasize where model's components have been updated with respect to former version, CNRM‐CM5.1. In particular, we highlight major improvements in representation atmospheric land processes. A particular attention has also devoted mass energy conservation simulated climate system limit long‐term drifts. CNRM‐CM6‐1 is then evaluated using CMIP6 historical Diagnostic, Evaluation Characterization Klima (DECK) experiments comparison CMIP5 CNRM‐CM5.1 equivalent experiments. Overall, mean surface biases are similar magnitude but different spatial patterns. Deep ocean generally reduced, whereas sea ice too thin Arctic. Although variability remains roughly consistent CNRM‐CM5.1, its sensitivity rising CO 2 increased: equilibrium 4.9 K, which now close upper bound range estimated from models.

Language: Английский

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Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. 014005 - 014005

Published: Jan. 1, 2015

New metrics and evidence are presented that support a linkage between rapid Arctic warming, relative to Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations favor persistent weather patterns. We find robust relationships among seasonal regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients, zonal upper-level winds, meridional flow direction. These results suggest as the continues warm faster than elsewhere in response rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, frequency extreme events caused by will increase.

Language: Английский

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When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 40(10), P. 2097 - 2101

Published: March 5, 2013

Abstract The observed rapid loss of thick multiyear sea ice over the last 7 years and September 2012 Arctic extent reduction 49% relative to 1979–2000 climatology are inconsistent with projections a nearly ice‐free summer from model estimates 2070 beyond made just few ago. Three recent approaches predictions in scientific literature as follows: (1) extrapolation volume data, (2) assuming several more events such 2007 2012, (3) climate projections. Time horizons for these three roughly 2020 or earlier, 2030 ± 10 years, 2040 later. Loss models based on subset most ensemble members. It is not possible clearly choose one approach another this depends weights given data versus models. Observations citations support conclusion that global results CMIP5 archive too conservative their Recent expert opinion should be considered addition advance very likely timing future first half 21st century, possibility major within decade two.

Language: Английский

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The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: July 23, 2018

Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to rest of globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links weather focused winter, yet recent summers seen strong reductions sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient associated weakening circulation. We review scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses influence changes summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, amplified quasi-stationary waves. show that interactions between teleconnections other remote regional feedback processes could lead more persistent hot-dry extremes mid-latitudes. The exact nature these non-linear is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.

Language: Английский

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Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment

Published: Jan. 1, 2014

Language: Английский

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Patterns and trends of Northern Hemisphere snow mass from 1980 to 2018

Nature, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 581(7808), P. 294 - 298

Published: May 20, 2020

Language: Английский

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Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 5(3), P. 389 - 409

Published: March 11, 2014

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming the has been amplified, as expected from ice‐albedo feedback effects, with rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade (>64°N) compared ∼0.17°C/decade globally during last three decades. This increase surface temperature manifested all components cryosphere. In particular, sea ice extent declining at ∼3.8%/decade, whereas perennial (represented by summer minimum) much greater ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover also −2.12%/decade for period 1967–2012. Greenland sheet losing mass ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence 0.09 mm/year) 1992 2011, but 2002–2011, higher loss ∼215 observed. Also, glaciers worldwide declined 226 1971 2009 and 275 1993 2009. Increases permafrost have measured many parts Northern Hemisphere while thickening active layer that overlies thinning seasonally frozen ground reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis trends clouds, albedo, Oscillation presented. article categorized under: Paleoclimates Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

Language: Английский

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Water and life from snow: A trillion dollar science question

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 53(5), P. 3534 - 3544

Published: April 20, 2017

Abstract Snow provides essential resources/services in the form of water for human use, and climate regulation enhanced cooling Earth. In addition, it supports a thriving winter outdoor recreation industry. To date, financial evaluation importance snow is incomplete hence need accelerated research not as clear could be. With cover changing worldwide several worrisome ways, there pressing to determine global, regional, local rates change, link these analyses that allow rational decision making, risks related those decisions involve trillions dollars.

Language: Английский

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Recent Changes in the ISBA‐CTRIP Land Surface System for Use in the CNRM‐CM6 Climate Model and in Global Off‐Line Hydrological Applications

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 11(5), P. 1207 - 1252

Published: April 1, 2019

In recent years, significant efforts have been made to upgrade physical processes in the ISBA-CTRIP land surface system for use fully coupled climate studies using new CNRM-CM6 model or stand-alone mode global hydrological applications. Here we provide a thorough description of and improved implemented between CMIP5 CMIP6 versions evaluate hydrology thermal behavior at scale. The soil scheme explicitly solves one-dimensional Fourier Darcy laws throughout soil, accounting dependency hydraulic properties on organic carbon content. snowpack is represented multilayer detailed internal-process snow scheme. A two-way dynamic flood added which floodplains interact with through reinfiltration floodwater overlying atmosphere free-water evaporation. Finally, groundwater are via two-dimensional diffusive unconfined aquifer allowing upward capillarity rises into superficial soil. This has evaluated off-line two different atmospheric forcings against large set satellite estimates situ observations. While this study not without weaknesses, its results show real advance modeling aspects version compared previous system. increases our confidence that able represent accurately across globe turn contribute several important scientific societal issues.

Language: Английский

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