HOTSSea v1: a NEMO-based physical Hindcast of the Salish Sea (1980–2018) supporting ecosystem model development DOI Creative Commons
Greig Oldford, Tereza Jarníková, Villy Christensen

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(2), P. 211 - 237

Published: Jan. 20, 2025

Abstract. Decadal-scale oceanographic, environmental, and ecological changes have been reported in the Salish Sea, an ecologically productive inland sea northeast Pacific that supports economies cultures of millions people. However, there are substantial data gaps related to physical water properties make it difficult evaluate trends pathways effects between ocean productivity marine ecosystems. With aim addressing these gaps, we present Hindcast Sea (HOTSSea) v1, a 3D oceanographic model developed using Nucleus for European Modelling Ocean (NEMO) engine, with temporal coverage from 1980–2018. We used experimental approach incrementally assess sensitivity atmospheric reanalysis products boundary forcings horizontal discretisation grid (∼ 1.5 km). Biases inherited were quantified, simple temperature bias correction factor applied at one was found substantially improve skill. Evaluation salinity indicates performance is best Strait Georgia. Relatively large biases occur near-surface waters, especially subdomains topography narrower than grid's resolution. demonstrated simulates anomalies secular warming trend over entire column general agreement observations. HOTSSea v1 provided first look spatially temporally heterogenous throughout northern central part domain where observations sparse. Overall, despite relatively coarse discretisation, performs well representing spatial–temporal scales needed support research decadal-scale climate on ecosystems, fish, fisheries. conclude by underscoring need further extend hindcast capture regime shift occurred 1970s.

Language: Английский

Urban climate risk assessment under climate and land use changes impact: A multi-dimensional approach DOI
Hao Wu, Yifeng Qin, Dobri Dunchev

et al.

Urban Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61, P. 102379 - 102379

Published: March 17, 2025

Citations

1
Impact of bias correction of regional climate model boundary conditions on the simulation of precipitation extremes DOI
Youngil Kim, Eytan Rocheta, Jason P. Evans

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 55(11-12), P. 3507 - 3526

Published: Sept. 19, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

49
Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review DOI
Leonie Sara Plaga, Valentin Bertsch

Applied Energy, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 331, P. 120384 - 120384

Published: Dec. 7, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

25
Trends, forecasting and adaptation strategies of climate change in the middle and west regions of Iraq DOI Creative Commons

Waqed H. Hassan,

Basim K. Nile,

Zahraa K. Kadhim

et al.

SN Applied Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 5(12)

Published: Nov. 6, 2023

Abstract Climate change has placed considerable pressure on the residential environment, agricultural, and water supplies in different areas of world, especially arid places such as Iraq. Iraq is one five most vulnerable countries world to climate change, where it been encountering extremes heat waves during recent decades resulted drought, desertification, rivers dried up, which led thousands hectares turn dry yellow. This study aims investigate trends middle western regions future expectations. The daily maximum temperature, minimum precipitation are downscaled using Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) employed for three periods: near (2021–2040), medium (2051–2070), far (2081–2100), based two scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) four selected meteorological stations representing area. outcomes calibration validation model supported its skill reliability downscale temperature time series statistical indices (R 2 , RMSE MBE) ranging between (0.894–0.998), (0.1270–1.9274) (− 0.6158 0.0008), respectively. results showed that average annual temperatures will increase at all across periods by 0.94 4.98 °C end twenty-first century. Annual changes tend generally towards area (6.09–14.31%) RCP4.5 (11.25–20.97%) RCP8.5 Compared historical data (1990–2020). These findings can contribute become more acquainted with effects environment encourage managers planners come up plans mitigating adapting these effects. They also serve a guide management agricultural resources region.

Language: Английский

Citations

14
Response of damaging Philippines tropical cyclones to a warming climate using the pseudo global warming approach DOI Creative Commons
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Pier Luigi Vidale, Gerry Bagtasa

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 61(7-8), P. 3499 - 3523

Published: March 23, 2023

Abstract The potential changes in the characteristics and damage of three most damaging tropical cyclone (TC) events (Haiyan 2013, Bopha 2012, Mangkhut 2018) Philippines have been simulated using pseudo global warming (PGW) technique. Simulations were performed Weather Research Forecasting model at 5 km resolution with cumulus parameterization (5 kmCU) 3 without (3 kmNoCU), PGW deltas derived from a selection CMIP6 models. We found that re-forecasting TCs under future leads to more intense TCs, maximum wind 4%, 3%, 14% for kmCU runs, 14%, 12% kmNoCU runs Typhoon Haiyan, Bopha, Mangkhut, respectively. track, translation speed, size are relatively small. TC cases higher impact future, as expressed by index, ranging ~ 1% up 37% SSP5-8.5 scenario. Based on pre-industrial climate change has had, so far, only weak influence intensity not much size. convective show similar sign projected response, but different signals speed

Language: Английский

Citations

13
Hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios in the Bosque watershed, North-Central Texas, USA DOI Creative Commons
Gebrekidan Worku Tefera, Ram L. Ray

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 31(28), P. 40636 - 40654

Published: May 18, 2023

This study evaluates hydrology and hydrological extremes under future climate change scenarios. The scenarios were developed from multiple Global Circulation Models (GCMs), Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, statistical downscaling techniques. To ensure model robustness, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated validated using Differential Split Sample Test (DSST) approach. also at multi-gauges of watershed. Future revealed a reduction in precipitation (in order -9.1% to 4.9%) consistent increase maximum temperature (0.34°C 4.10°C) minimum (-0.15 °C 3.7°C) different simulations. triggered surface runoff streamflow moderate evapotranspiration. projected decrease high flow (Q5) low (Q95). A higher Q5 annual is simulated whereas an RCP8.5 emission scenario. suggests optimal water management structures which can reduce effect flows.

Language: Английский

Citations

12
Urbanization impact on meteorological condition and O3 concentration under past and future climates scenarios over the Greater Bay Area in Southern China DOI
Qun Wang, Yiang Chen, Xingcheng Lu

et al.

Atmospheric Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 331, P. 120585 - 120585

Published: May 18, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Bias Correction and Evaluation of Precipitation Data from the CORDEX Regional Climate Model for Monitoring Climate Change in the Wadi Chemora Basin (Northeastern Algeria) DOI Creative Commons
Samiya Derdour, Abderrahmane Nekkache Ghenim, Abdesselam Megnounif

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(11), P. 1876 - 1876

Published: Nov. 10, 2022

This study aims to provide a brief overview of four regional climate model (RCM) estimations for (Daily, Monthly, Seasonal, and Annual) averaged precipitation over the Wadi Chemora Basin in northeastern Algeria historical period (1970–2005) future forecasts (2006–2100). Data from seven ground stations were compared data RCMs: RCA4 driven by ICHEC-EC-EARTH NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M MENA-CORDEX domain with intermediate resolution (25 km, 0.22°) ALADIN RegCM4 MED-CORDEX high (12 0.11°). In most time steps (Annual, Daily), raw RCMs overestimated precipitation, but their performance improved significantly after applying gamma quantile mapping (GQM) bias correction method. The bias-corrected projections indicate decreases seasonal rainfall near (2010–2039), mid-century (2040–2069), end century (2070–2100) periods. Overall all seasons lead projected decrease annual an average 66% 21st century.

Language: Английский

Citations

18
Climate change impact on water availability in the Himalaya: Insights from Sunkoshi River basin, Nepal DOI Creative Commons
R. Prajapati,

Nurazim Ibrahim,

Bhesh Raj Thapa

et al.

HydroResearch, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6, P. 279 - 292

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Changing streamflow is one of the most visible consequences climate change. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to investigate significant effects change on in a Himalayan River. We incorporated information from several Global Climate Models (GCM), considering two scenarios: SSP 2.45 5.85, which are part Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for future periods 2022–2030 2031–2050. Substantial patterns temperature rainfall changes were identified using ensemble modeling. Under both SSPs results indicated rising trend temperatures January June, decline June September, marginal increase October December. Additionally, annual rainfall, real evapotranspiration, river flow anticipated rise by 17.67–21.79%, up 0.93%, 23–53%, respectively upper region study basin. Conversely, across scenarios, lower depicted have 20.84–36.34%, evapotranspiration 4.35%, 38–65%. These findings will be invaluable design construction climate-resilient water resources related projects regions, such as Nepal.

Language: Английский

Citations

11
Sensitivity of streamflow and nutrient loads to changes in leaf area index and soil organic carbon in a sub-tropical catchment subject to climate change DOI Creative Commons
Chao Deng, Hong Zhang, David P. Hamilton

et al.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 52, P. 101682 - 101682

Published: Feb. 8, 2024

The Upper Nerang River Catchment located in South-East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to test the sensitivity of catchment runoff and water quality changes Leaf Area Index (LAI) (topsoil) Organic Carbon (SOC) associated with climate change. These parameters are normally considered be stationary hydrological models, potentially constraining accuracy these models for simulation under future scenarios. LAI decreased by 0.4% 16.9% SOC 5.9 11.6%, depending on land cover, period, emission scenario. Climate change scenarios showed an increase extreme flows compared a baseline (recent historical) case were characterised reduced return period greater magnitude discharge. Changes have potential mitigate may reduce loads SS, TN TP findings this study indicate that incorporating into is important modelling response Furthermore, could managed impacts streamflow losses from soils receiving waters.

Language: Английский

Citations

4