A global transition to flash droughts under climate change

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 380(6641), P. 187 - 191

Published: April 13, 2023

Flash droughts have occurred frequently worldwide, with a rapid onset that challenges drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities. However, there is no consensus on whether flash become the new normal because slow may also increase. In this study, we show intensification rates sped up over subseasonal time scales has been transition toward more 74% of global regions identified by Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change Special Report Extreme Events during past 64 years. The associated amplified anomalies evapotranspiration precipitation deficit caused anthropogenic climate change. future, projected to expand most land areas, larger increases under higher-emission scenarios. These findings underscore urgency for adapting faster-onset in warmer future.

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic drought dominates groundwater depletion in Iran

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: April 28, 2021

Using publicly-available average monthly groundwater level data in 478 sub-basins and 30 basins Iran, we quantify country-wide depletion Iran. Natural anthropogenic elements affecting the dynamics of storage are taken into account quantified during period 2002-2015. We estimate that total Iran to be ~ 74 km3 this with highly localized variable rates change at basin sub-basin scales. The impact Iran's reserves is already manifested by extreme overdrafts 77% land area, a growing soil salinity across entire country, increasing frequency extent subsidence planes. While meteorological/hydrological droughts act as triggers intensify rate storage, basin-scale depletions mainly caused extensive human water withdrawals. warn continuation unsustainable management can lead potentially irreversible impacts on environment, threatening country's water, food, socio-economic security.

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic depletion of Iran’s aquifers

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(25)

Published: June 14, 2021

Significance Iran is facing a state of water bankruptcy that threatens its socioeconomic development and natural environments. Using an exceptionally rich measured groundwater dataset, we illustrate the extent severity Iran’s depletion salinization problems during 2002 to 2015 period, when number extraction points nearly doubled. nonrenewable withdrawal was about 66 million m 3 in 1965, which cumulatively grew approximately 133 × 10 2019. This increase 3.4 times capacity famous Three Gorges Dam China. Groundwater decline due extensive overexploitation rising salinity levels are documented almost all subbasins, pointing dire, worsening security risks across country.

Language: Английский

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Evaluation of the impacts of human activities on propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Weihe River Basin, China

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 819, P. 153030 - 153030

Published: Jan. 14, 2022

Language: Английский

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Application of a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model based on the SPEI for drought forecasting

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 29(3), P. 4128 - 4144

Published: Aug. 17, 2021

Language: Английский

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The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

iScience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(8), P. 104720 - 104720

Published: July 4, 2022

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of increasing complexity disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability suggest methodological approaches to assess include dynamics in our risk assessments, learning from compound multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, socio-ecological research communities. We argue for changed perspective, starting with circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. identify three types vulnerability: (1) underlying vulnerability, (2) changes during long-lasting disasters, (3) compounding societal shocks. conclude there is great potential capture using qualitative model-based methods, both reproducing historic projecting future provide examples narratives, agent-based models, system dynamics.

Language: Английский

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Water scarcity and social conflict

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 113, P. 102633 - 102633

Published: Feb. 19, 2022

Language: Английский

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A decision framework for potential dam site selection using GIS, MIF and TOPSIS in Ulhas river basin, India

Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 423, P. 138890 - 138890

Published: Sept. 14, 2023

Language: Английский

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Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(32)

Published: Aug. 9, 2023

The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that 2022 drought is worst event (30% lower than second worst, with six-century return period), part an increasing trend in severe occurrence. decline summer flows (-4.14 cubic meters per year), which more relevant precipitation decline, attributed to combination changes regime, resulting snow fraction (-0.6% year) snowmelt (-0.18 millimeters day evaporation rate (+0.013 kilometers irrigated areas (100% increment from 1900). Our study presents compelling case where impact change exacerbated by local hydrologic seasonality water use.

Language: Английский

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The patterns, magnitude, and drivers of unprecedented 2022 mega-drought in the Yangtze River Basin, China

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(11), P. 114006 - 114006

Published: Sept. 28, 2023

Abstract The Yangtze River Basin in China was hit by an unprecedented extreme drought 2022. Such a record-breaking event is jointly driven few outlier factors and shows abnormal phenomena. exceptionality of this cannot be fully described any individual indicator. Therefore, we performed comprehensive study to highlight the 2022 drought. We evaluated three characteristics: onset period (the time interval moisture condition from normal extreme), intensity, affected area their compound features. Additionally, historical climatology (1950–2022) four past severe events are used as references. Lastly, investigated driving mechanisms synoptic perspective. Our results indicate ranked most history. recurrence estimated 120–400 years considering combined characteristics. Behind scenes, environment triggered abnormally high temperatures abrupt alteration precipitation, which main driver event. archetype characterized both rapid intensification over space, indicative for monitoring early warning warming climate.

Language: Английский

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