Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models

˜The œcryosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 18(6), P. 2739 - 2763

Published: June 18, 2024

Abstract. We examine the past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice properties six climate models participating High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) Coupled Phase 6 (CMIP6). Within HighResMIP, each of experiments is run using a reference resolution configuration (consistent with typical CMIP6 runs) higher-resolution configurations. The role horizontal grid both atmosphere model component ocean reproducing future cover analysed. outputs from coupled historical (hist-1950) (highres-future) runs are used to describe multi-model, multi-resolution representation evaluate systematic differences (if any) that enhancement causes. Our results indicate there not strong relationship between ocean/atmosphere grids; impact depends rather on characteristic examined used. However, refinement has more prominent effect compared atmospheric one, eddy-permitting configurations generally providing realistic representations area edges. All project substantial shrinking: loses nearly 95 % volume 1950 2050. selection based performance potentially improves accuracy projections predicts will turn ice-free as early 2047. Along overall loss, spatial structure total its partition classes noticed: marginal zone (MIZ) dominate by 2050, suggesting shift new regime much closer current Antarctic conditions. MIZ-dominated might drive development modification physics parameterizations generation general circulation (GCMs).

Language: Английский

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Multi-Aspect Assessment of CMIP6 Models for Arctic Sea Ice Simulation

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 34(4), P. 1515 - 1529

Published: Dec. 1, 2020

Abstract This paper evaluates the ability of 35 models from phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate Arctic sea ice by comparing simulated results with observation aspects spatial patterns and temporal variation. The simulation each model is also quantified Taylor score e these two aspects. Results show that biases between observed concentration (SIC) are mainly located in East Greenland, Barents, Bering Seas Sea Okhotsk. largest difference SIC occurs September. Since beginning twenty-first century, most summer has decreased. We find Ice Simulator (SIS) component CMIP6 a consistent larger positive Greenland Barents Seas. In addition, for models, higher resolution is, better match winter is. Furthermore, this makes detailed assessment variation extent (SIE) regard climatological average, seasonal SIE, multiyear linear trend, detrended standard deviation SIE. sensitivity September SIE given change surface air temperature over 1979–2014 been investigated. Most smaller loss per degree warming than (1.37 × 10 km 2 K −1 ).

Language: Английский

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Stronger Variability in the Arctic Ocean Induced by Sea Ice Decline in a Warming Climate: Freshwater Storage, Dynamic Sea Level and Surface Circulation

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 126(3)

Published: Feb. 14, 2021

Abstract Arctic liquid freshwater content (FWC) influences both regional and large‐scale ocean dynamics climate. In this study the responses of FWC, sea surface height (SSH) circulation to different atmospheric modes impact ice decline on these are investigated by using wind perturbation simulations. The intensified through its resulting enhancement in stress, indicating stronger decadal variability SSH a warming Oscillation (AO) Beaufort High (BH) forcing can significantly change total FWC. Compared condition 1980s, amplitudes same AO much larger under 2010s for FWC (by up 50%) velocity (doubled some places). Sea intensifies BH Canada Basin with similar strength. Dipole Anomaly (DA) causes opposite changes between Eurasian Amerasian sectors cold decade, changing thermodynamics being nonnegligible compared that stress. makes response DA less regular spatially. This indicates an increasing vulnerability Ocean winds world, which implies extreme marine events may occur more often future.

Language: Английский

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Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Abstract In this study we assessed the representation of sea surface salinity (SSS) and liquid freshwater content (LFWC) Arctic Ocean in historical simulation 31 CMIP6 models with comparison to 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, investigated projected changes solid budget scenarios two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5). No significant improvement was found SSS LFWC from CMIP5 CMIP6, given large model spreads both CMIP phases. The overestimation continues be a common bias CMIP6. simulation, multi‐model mean river runoff, net precipitation, Bering Strait Barents Sea Opening (BSO) transports are 2,928 ± 1,068, 1,839 3,424, 2,538 1,009, −636 553 km 3 /year, respectively. last decade 21st century, MMM projects these terms rise 4,346 1,484 /year (3,678 1,255 /year), 3,866 2,935 (3,145 2,651 2,631 1,119 (2,649 1,141 /year) 1,033 1,496 (449 1,222 under SSP5‐8.5 (SSP2‐4.5). ice is expected continue declining future, meltwater flux likely decrease about zero mid‐21st century SSP2‐4.5 scenarios. Liquid exiting Fram Davis straits will higher export remain larger. hold total 160,300 62,330 (141,590 50,310 ) (SSP2‐4.5) by 2100, 60% (40%) more than its climatology.

Language: Английский

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Assessment of Antarctic sea ice area and concentration in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 models

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 43(3), P. 1314 - 1332

Published: Nov. 9, 2022

Abstract Sea ice is an important and complex component of the Earth system considered a sensitive indicator climate change. The seasonal sea cycle regulates exchange heat salinity, altering energy balance between high low latitudes as well ocean atmospheric circulation. accurate representation Antarctic has been hot topic in modelling community lacks conclusive answers. In this paper, we evaluated ability 11 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ( CMIP5) 6 CMIP6) to simulate Antarctica terms area SIA ) concentration SIC ), improvements most recent models' version, submitted CMIP6 . results indicated that all are able accurately capture , with minimum (maximum) occurring February (September). Weddell Sea, Amundsen Bellingshausen Ross simulated revealed large systematic bias when compared observations. September, was found nearby Southern Ocean's northern limit Polar Front. Several exhibited slight on estimate over previous version CMIP5 ). All significant loss coming years response CO 2 forcing. Despite advancements representation, our findings show still unable represent regional changes

Language: Английский

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