Information-Theoretic Scores for Bayesian Model Selection and Similarity Analysis: Concept and Application to a Groundwater Problem DOI Creative Commons
Maria Fernanda Morales Oreamuno, Sergey Oladyshkin, Wolfgang Nowak

et al.

Published: Sept. 28, 2022

Bayesian model selection (BMS) and justifiability analysis (BMJ) provide a statistically rigorous framework to compare competing conceptual models through the use of evidence (BME).However, BME-based has two main limitations: (1) it's powerless when comparing with different data set sizes and/or types and(2) doesn't allow judge model's performance based on its posterior predictive capabilities.Thus, traditional approaches ignore useful or due issue disregards updating because (2).To address these limitations, we advocate include additional information-theoretic scores into BMS BMJ analysis: expected log-predictive density (ELPD), relative entropy (RE) information (IE).Exploring connection between inference theory, explicitly link BME ELPD together RE IE indicate flow in analysis.We show how compute interpret alongside BME, apply it similarity framework.We test methodology controlled 2D groundwater setup considering five accompanied sets.The results complement by providing more complete picture concerning process.Additionally, present both can be used objectively that feature sets.Overall, introduced helps avoid any potential loss leads an informed decision for similarity.

Language: Английский

Predicting trichloroethene attenuation in aquifers with reduced iron minerals under oxygen perturbation: From kinetic model to reactive transport model DOI
Xueji You, Chaomeng Dai, Jixiang Li

et al.

Journal of Hazardous Materials, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 137376 - 137376

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Formulation and probabilistic assessment of reversible biodegradation pathway of Diclofenac in groundwater DOI
Laura Ceresa, Alberto Guadagnini, Giovanni Porta

et al.

Water Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 204, P. 117466 - 117466

Published: July 31, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

18
Modelling biogeochemical reactions triggered by graphene's addition in a fertilized calcareous sandy soil DOI Creative Commons
Luigi Alessandrino, Nicolò Colombani, Micòl Mastrocicco

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 898, P. 165558 - 165558

Published: July 15, 2023

Graphene production has dramatically increased in the last years and new ways to recycle this engineered material need be investigated. To purpose, a reactive model network was developed using PHREEQC-3 code quantify relevant biogeochemical reactions induced by graphene scraps' incorporation calcareous sandy soil. The numerical calibrated versus complete dataset of column experiments water saturated conditions two different fertilizers, synthetic NPK fertilizer fertigation produced wastewater treatment plant. Column consisted 50 cm columns filled with mixture scraps (0.015 % dry weight) soil first 10 cm, while remaining 40 had only performance tested classical statistical indices (R2, Modelling Efficiency, Index Agreement), resulting satisfactory. Besides, simple sensitivity analysis via perturbation parameters showed low degree uncertainty. main outcome study quantification denitrification rate triggered into Moreover, substantially CEC DOC sorption capacity, demonstrating good adsorption capacity for ammonium organic compounds, thus decreasing nutrients leaching that represents major concern related agricultural practice. Indeed, CSG_NPK (2.50e-02 mol/L) respect CS_NPK (1.75e-02 it 150 CSG_FW comparison CS_FW 1.00e-02 (mol/L). pH fluctuations were most likely due precipitation Ca5(PO4)3OH, indeed consumption H+ ions could have lowering during experiment. These results future applications as improver or suitable enhance bioremediation order include circular economy loop.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Surrogate-based Bayesian comparison of computationally expensive models: application to microbially induced calcite precipitation DOI Creative Commons
Stefania Scheurer, Aline Schäfer Rodrigues Silva, Farid Mohammadi

et al.

Computational Geosciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25(6), P. 1899 - 1917

Published: Aug. 4, 2021

Abstract Geochemical processes in subsurface reservoirs affected by microbial activity change the material properties of porous media. This is a complex biogeochemical process that currently contains strong conceptual uncertainty. means, several modeling approaches describing are plausible and modelers face uncertainty choosing most appropriate one. The considered models differ underlying hypotheses about structure. Once observation data become available, rigorous Bayesian model selection accompanied justifiability analysis could be employed to choose model, i.e. one describes physical best light available data. However, computationally very demanding because it conceptualizes different phases, biomass dynamics, geochemistry, precipitation dissolution Therefore, framework cannot based directly on full computational as this would require too many expensive evaluations. To circumvent problem, we suggest perform both after constructing surrogates for competing models. Here, will use arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion. Considering surrogate representations only approximations analyzed original models, account approximation error introducing novel correction factors resulting weights. Thereby, extend assess similarities We demonstrate method representative scenario microbially induced calcite medium. Our extension provides suitable approach comparison gives an insight necessary amount reliable performance.

Language: Английский

Citations

8
The Four Ways to Consider Measurement Noise in Bayesian Model Selection—And Which One to Choose DOI Creative Commons
Sebastian Reuschen, Wolfgang Nowak, Anneli Guthke

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(11)

Published: Oct. 23, 2021

Abstract Bayesian model selection (BMS) is a statistically rigorous approach to assess the plausibility of competing models. It naturally accounts for uncertainties in models and data. In this study, we discuss role measurement noise BMS deeper than past literature. We distinguish between four cases, accounting and/or data: (1) no‐no, (2) no‐yes, (3) yes‐no, (4) yes‐yes. These cases differ mathematically philosophically. Only two out these are logically consistent, they represent potentially conflicting research questions: “Which best modeling pure physics?” (Case 1) “which predicting data‐generating process (i.e., physics plus noise)?” 4). If interested “pure question,” face practical challenges: First, would need noise‐free data, which impossible obtain; second, numerical approximation evidence can be hard when neglecting noise. how address both challenges reveal that fallback easier “data‐generation question” as proxy “physics not appropriate. demonstrate on synthetic scenarios real‐world hydrogeological case study choice has significant impact outcome posterior weights, hence results ranking, selection, averaging, confusion analysis, uncertainty quantification. Reality might force us use different philosophy suggest, provide guidance interpret probabilities under such conditions.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
A Multispecies Reactive Transport Model of Sequential Bioremediation and Pump-and-treat in a Chloroethenes-polluted Aquifer DOI
Giulia Casiraghi, Daniele Pedretti, Giovanni Pietro Beretta

et al.

Water Air & Soil Pollution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 236(1)

Published: Dec. 18, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Managed aquifer recharge with marginal water for irrigation and contaminant attenuation DOI Open Access
Darrell W.S. Tang

Published: July 4, 2022

Water resource scarcity, food security, and environmental pollution are three major issues, that threaten the sustainability of natural environment lives livelihoods people around globe, especially marginalized those who live in developing regions. Despite increasing efforts by scientists policymakers to resolve these there is still no end sight, partly because lack conviction, due inability. With currently available technology, it often necessary make sacrifices regarding one issues order effect an improvement another. For example, attempts tackle shortages agricultural production would necessitate use more water resources for irrigation, chemicals soil fertilization, which turn may exacerbate scarcity pollution, resulting net benefit sustainability. It therefore imperative methods such have minimal trade-offs developed.A new method irrigation has potential alleviate above being tested at experimental site Netherlands. This involves a newly developed subsurface drainage system, irrigated with treated wastewater. To justify development this method, Chapter 1 provides some historical context brief technical description along introductory discussion on its risks, benefits, shortcomings, advantages terms crop contamination. Wastewater, including wastewater as treatment technique can fully remove all impurities from without consuming large amounts energy, contains residual biological chemical substances. Some substances known contaminants emerging concern (CECs), toxic or ecotoxic poorly understood science reasons novelty rarity. Hence, irrigating directly onto crops contaminate supply.Treated risks exposure be accomplished through pipes buried phreatic zone, situated distance beneath root zone. Part demand thus fulfilled applying pipes, upon they raise table increase capillary flux towards thereby exposing them CECs transported upwards least biodegraded microorganisms present soil, addition diluted groundwater, adsorbed matrix. Therefore, reaches zone rise should contain much lower concentration than water. On days precipitation fluxes, outside annual season, same used drain portion any remain. Nevertheless, remains risk will exposed CECs, deeper groundwater aquifers, source freshwater, surface aquifer, whereupon pollute aboveground environment. Subsurface falls under umbrella technologies managed aquifer recharge (MAR). An objective thesis evaluate MAR system wider significant quantities.In 2, model constructed validated against data A sensitivity analysis conducted 3, where main conclusion fate contamination primarily dependent biogeochemical behavior hydrogeological conditions subsurface. The only mechanisms removed contaminating either drained away soil. Accordingly, another study recovery efficiency systems general, theoretical perspective, analytical numerical modelling: 4 5 analyzes spatially homogeneous heterogeneous aquifers respectively, while 6 studies in-situ biodegradation subsurface.Altogether, results work presented suggest introduced safe regions similar climactic conditions, long does not excessive concentrations highly mobile persistent CECs. Although contributes little CEC removal site, change different if regional flow velocity slower. Extreme outcomes related spreading environment, might predicted simpler models transport transformation, less likely observed when accounting realistic used, suggesting tail overestimated models. also many cases, but all, improve relative basis volume operational history increases nature dispersion radial advection microbial adaptation, encouraging adaptation. In conclusion, effective safely fulfilling purposes, care taken avoid

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Information‐Theoretic Scores for Bayesian Model Selection and Similarity Analysis: Concept and Application to a Groundwater Problem DOI Creative Commons
Maria Fernanda Morales Oreamuno, Sergey Oladyshkin, Wolfgang Nowak

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 59(7)

Published: July 1, 2023

Abstract Bayesian model selection (BMS) and justifiability analysis (BMJ) provide a statistically rigorous framework for comparing competing models through the use of evidence (BME). However, BME‐based has two main limitations: (a) it does not account model's posterior predictive performance after using data calibration (b) leads to biased results when that different subsets observations calibration. To address these limitations, we propose augmenting BMS BMJ analyses with additional information‐theoretic measures: expected log‐predictive density (ELPD), relative entropy (RE) information (IE). Exploring connection between inference theory, explicitly link BME ELPD together RE IE highlight flow in analyses. We show how compute interpret scores alongside BME, apply controlled 2D groundwater setup featuring five models, one which uses subset Our complement by providing more complete picture concerning updating process. Additionally, demonstrate both can be used objectively compare feature sets Overall, introduced lead better‐informed decision incorporating post‐calibration performance, allowing work considering usefulness

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Information-Theoretic Scores for Bayesian Model Selection and Similarity Analysis: Concept and Application to a Groundwater Problem DOI Creative Commons
Maria Fernanda Morales Oreamuno, Sergey Oladyshkin, Wolfgang Nowak

et al.

Published: Sept. 28, 2022

Bayesian model selection (BMS) and justifiability analysis (BMJ) provide a statistically rigorous framework to compare competing conceptual models through the use of evidence (BME).However, BME-based has two main limitations: (1) it's powerless when comparing with different data set sizes and/or types and(2) doesn't allow judge model's performance based on its posterior predictive capabilities.Thus, traditional approaches ignore useful or due issue disregards updating because (2).To address these limitations, we advocate include additional information-theoretic scores into BMS BMJ analysis: expected log-predictive density (ELPD), relative entropy (RE) information (IE).Exploring connection between inference theory, explicitly link BME ELPD together RE IE indicate flow in analysis.We show how compute interpret alongside BME, apply it similarity framework.We test methodology controlled 2D groundwater setup considering five accompanied sets.The results complement by providing more complete picture concerning process.Additionally, present both can be used objectively that feature sets.Overall, introduced helps avoid any potential loss leads an informed decision for similarity.

Language: Английский

Citations

0