Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 235, P. 104241 - 104241

Published: Nov. 8, 2022

Language: Английский

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The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

iScience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(8), P. 104720 - 104720

Published: July 4, 2022

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of increasing complexity disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability suggest methodological approaches to assess include dynamics in our risk assessments, learning from compound multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, socio-ecological research communities. We argue for changed perspective, starting with circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. identify three types vulnerability: (1) underlying vulnerability, (2) changes during long-lasting disasters, (3) compounding societal shocks. conclude there is great potential capture using qualitative model-based methods, both reproducing historic projecting future provide examples narratives, agent-based models, system dynamics.

Language: Английский

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Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: April 14, 2023

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising different variables across space time, here we illustrate that robust analyses events - such as frequency uncertainty analysis under present-day future conditions, attribution to change, exploration low-probability-high-impact require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required is much larger than needed for univariate extremes. We demonstrate Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations multiple models, provide hundreds thousands years crucial advancing our assessments constructing model projections. Combining SMILEs an improved physical understanding will ultimately practitioners stakeholders best available information risks.

Language: Английский

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Recent Advances and New Frontiers in Riverine and Coastal Flood Modeling

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 61(2)

Published: May 27, 2023

Abstract Over the past decades, scientific community has made significant efforts to simulate flooding conditions using a variety of complex physically based models. Despite all advances, these models still fall short in accuracy and reliability are often considered computationally intensive be fully operational. This could attributed insufficient comprehension causative mechanisms flood processes, assumptions model development inadequate consideration uncertainties. We suggest adopting an approach that accounts for influence human activities, soil saturation, snow topography, river morphology, land‐use type enhance our understanding generating mechanisms. also recommend transition innovative earth system modeling frameworks where interaction among components simultaneously modeled. Additionally, more nonselective rigorous studies should conducted provide detailed comparison physical simplified methods inundation mapping. Linking process‐based with data‐driven/statistical offers opportunities yet explored conveyed researchers emergency managers. The main contribution this paper is notify scientists practitioners latest developments characterization modeling, identify challenges associated uncertainties risks coupled hydrologic hydrodynamic forecasting mapping, potential use state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation machine learning tackle complexities involved transitioning such operation.

Language: Английский

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A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(5), P. 333 - 350

Published: April 18, 2023

Language: Английский

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Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(2), P. 541 - 564

Published: Feb. 7, 2025

Abstract. Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, storm surges. Many these do not occur as single but rather show multivariate character, known compound events. We investigate the interactions between weather events, their characteristics, changes in intensity frequency, well uncertainties past, present, future. also explore impacts on various socio-economic sectors Germany central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus 2018, year marked by an exceptional sequence across large parts Europe, resulting severe human lives, ecosystems, infrastructure. provide new insights into drivers spatially temporally such heat drought, heavy precipitation combined winds, adverse effects ecosystems society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. examine interannual influence droughts surface water impact scarcity heatwaves agriculture forests. assess projected at different current future global temperature levels, demonstrating need for improved quantification to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps directions, stressing importance defining composite primarily terms prior statistical characterisation.

Language: Английский

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Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(2), P. 747 - 816

Published: Feb. 20, 2025

Abstract. Compound flooding, where the combination or successive occurrence of two more flood drivers leads to a greater impact, can exacerbate adverse consequences particularly in coastal–estuarine regions. This paper reviews practices and trends compound research synthesizes regional global findings. A systematic review is employed construct literature database 279 studies relevant flooding context. explores types events their mechanistic processes, it terminology throughout literature. Considered are six (fluvial, pluvial, coastal, groundwater, damming/dam failure, tsunami) five precursor environmental conditions (soil moisture, snow, temp/heat, fire, drought). Furthermore, this summarizes methodology study application trends, as well considers influences climate change urban environments. Finally, highlights knowledge gaps discusses implications on future practices. Our recommendations for (1) adopt consistent approaches, (2) expand geographic coverage research, (3) pursue inter-comparison projects, (4) develop modelling frameworks that better couple dynamic Earth systems, (5) design coastal infrastructure with compounding mind.

Language: Английский

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Drought–heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1517(1), P. 44 - 62

Published: Sept. 2, 2022

Abstract Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought‐heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental socioeconomic sectors. These threats are particular importance low‐income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress understanding CDHW patterns Brazil while providing insights about impacts on fire occurrence public health. Evidence mounting that heatwaves becoming increasingly linked droughts northeastern southeastern Brazil, Amazonia, Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build better physical mechanisms behind events, such as soil moisture–atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at synergy between events high activity country over last decades, most example being catastrophic 2020 fires Moreover, we show HWs were responsible for increasing mortality preterm births during record‐breaking Brazil. work paves way more in‐depth their impacts, crucial enhance adaptive capacity different Brazilian

Language: Английский

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Compound events and associated impacts in China

iScience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(8), P. 104689 - 104689

Published: June 30, 2022

Owing to amplified impacts on human society and ecosystems, compound events (or extremes) have attracted ample attention in recent decades. China is particularly vulnerable due the fast warming rate, dense populations, fragile ecological environment. Recent studies demonstrated tangible effects of climate change with mounting economy, agriculture, public health, infrastructure China, posing unprecedented threats that are increasingly difficult manage. Here, I synthesize progress associated China. Several lines evidence indicate an increase frequency intensity multiple types across Future directions studying suggested, including investigating extremes from a perspective, modeling Anthropocene, quantitative evaluations risks, holistic adaptation measures events.

Language: Английский

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High Sensitivity of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events to Global Warming in the Future

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(11)

Published: Oct. 27, 2022

Abstract Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have received considerable attention in recent years due to their devastating effects on human society ecosystem. In this study, we systematically investigated the changes of CDHW multi‐spatiotemporal scales for historical period (1951–2014) four future scenarios (2020–2100) (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5) over global land by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The responses maximum air temperature climatic water balance variable are also examined. results show that multi‐model ensembles project a significant increasing trend characteristics almost all lands under SSP5‐8.5, especially across northern North‐America, Caribbean, Mediterranean Russian‐Arctic, there is stronger trend. A significantly risk will occur most medium long term without aggressive adaptation mitigation strategies. path analysis suggest dominant factor influencing events. Additionally, higher sensitivity warming future. Particularly, each 1°C increases duration 3 days period, but about 10 period. Overall, study improves our understanding projection impacts climate drivers various scenarios, which could provide supports assessment, strategies change.

Language: Английский

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