Institutional Dynamics Impact the Response of Urban Socio-Hydrologic Systems to Supply Challenges

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 23, 2023

Designing urban water systems to respond the accelerating and unpredictable changes of Anthropocene will require not only built infrastructure operating rules, but also governance arrangements responsible for investing in them. Yet, inclusion this political-economic feedback dynamic models socio-hydrology has significantly lagged behind operational concerns. We address gap through a dynamical application Coupled Infrastructure Systems (CIS) Framework, which provides conceptual building blocks analyzing social-ecological various classes flows material information among In model, involves three decisions - investment, rate-setting, short-term demand curtailment each decision is constrained by institutional friction, aggregation transaction costs associated with taking action. apply model cities Phoenix Metropolitan Area compare how friction interacts city’s resource portfolio financial position determine its sensitivity reductions Colorado River availability. find that slowing effect on investment rate-setting can increase supply, it promote objectives compete over-response (e.g., rate burden). The dependent initial capacity CIS flexibility within institutions, highlighting need consider together when evaluating systems.

Language: Английский

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Resilient water infrastructure partnerships in institutionally complex systems face challenging supply and financial risk tradeoffs

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 19, 2023

As regions around the world invest billions in new infrastructure to overcome increasing water scarcity, better guidance is needed facilitate cooperative planning and investment institutionally complex interconnected supply systems. This work combines detailed resource system ensemble modeling with multiobjective intelligent search explore highly uncertain partnership design tradeoffs context of ongoing canal rehabilitation groundwater banking California. We highlight that severe can emerge between conflicting goals related deliveries, size, underlying financial risks associated investments. demonstrate how hydroclimatic variability institutional complexity create significant uncertainty realized benefits potential for strong heterogeneity partners’ threaten viability. Importantly, partnerships discovered by our framework are found deliver substantially higher a fraction risk compared status quo processes. has important implications globally efforts use investments enhance resilience stability systems confronting competition scarce resources.

Language: Английский

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Representing Farmer Irrigated Crop Area Adaptation in a Large-Scale Hydrological Model

Published: July 20, 2023

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation croplands, which accounts the lion’s share human consumption, is critical in understanding these trajectories. Despite irrigation’s defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories land use that underlie demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks form instigation subsequent adaptation to via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying model Continental United States explore emerge from interplay between hydrologic-driven surface availability, reservoir management, adaptation. extended modeling framework conduct hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences a run without incorporation agents. These comparative simulations reveal accounting changes substantially alters modeled outcomes, U.S.-wide annual reduced by as much 42 percent when non-adaptive versions forced U.S. climatology 1950–2009.

Language: Английский

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Uncovering the dynamics of multi-sector impacts of hydrological extremes: a methods overview

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 23, 2023

Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound cascading impacts due to interdependencies between coupled natural social systems. However, current decision-making processes typically only consider one impact disaster event at time, ignoring causal chains, feedback loops, conditional dependencies impacts. Analyses capturing these patterns across space time are thus needed better inform effective adaptation planning. This perspective paper aims bridge this critical gap by presenting methods for assessing the dynamics multi-sector (CCI) hydrological extremes. We discuss existing challenges, good practices, potential ways forward. Rather than pursuing single methodological approach, we advocate pluralism. see complementary roles analyses building on quantitative (e.g. data-mining, systems modeling) qualitative mental models, storylines). believe data-driven knowledge-driven provided here serve useful starting point understanding both high-frequency CCI low-likelihood but high-impact CCI. With perspective, hope foster research improve development strategies reducing risk

Language: Английский

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Comment on egusphere-2023-1604

Published: Aug. 10, 2023

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation croplands, which accounts the lion’s share human consumption, is critical in understanding these trajectories. Despite irrigation’s defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories land use that underlie demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks form instigation subsequent adaptation to via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying model Continental United States explore emerge from interplay between hydrologic-driven surface availability, reservoir management, adaptation. extended modeling framework conduct hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences a run without incorporation agents. These comparative simulations reveal accounting changes substantially alters modeled outcomes, U.S.-wide annual reduced by as much 42 percent when non-adaptive versions forced U.S. climatology 1950–2009.

Language: Английский

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