Anthropogenic Influence on Recent Severe Autumn Fire Weather in the West Coast of the United States

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(4)

Published: Feb. 5, 2022

Abstract Extreme wind‐driven autumn wildfires are hazardous to life and property, due their rapid rate of spread. Recent catastrophic in the western United States co‐occurred with record‐ or near‐record fire weather indices that a byproduct extreme fuel dryness strong offshore dry winds. Here, we use formal, probabilistic, event attribution analysis investigate anthropogenic influence on 2017 2018. We show while present‐day climate change has slightly decreased prevalence downslope winds, it increased likelihood by 40% areas where recent fires have occurred northern California Oregon. The increase was primarily through aridity warmer temperatures during wind events. These findings illustrate is exacerbating extremes contribute high‐impact populated regions US.

Language: Английский

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Extreme fire spread events and area burned under recent and future climate in the western USA

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 31(10), P. 1949 - 1959

Published: April 6, 2022

Abstract Aim Wildfire activity in recent years is notable not only for an expansion of total area burned but also large, single‐day fire spread events that pose challenges to ecological systems and human communities. Our objectives were gain new insight into the relationships between extreme events, annual burned, season climate predict changes under future warming. Location Fire‐prone regions western USA. Time period 2002–2020; a +2°C scenario. Methods We used satellite‐derived dataset daily gridded data assess maximum temperature, moisture deficit, vapour pressure deficit. then developed models 2°C warming Results Extreme >1,100 ha (the top 16%, >1 SD ) accounted 70% cumulative over analysis. The variation was closely tied number mean size distributional skewness towards more large events. For example, we identified 441 2020 together 2.2 million across our study area, contrast average 168 per year 0.5 annually 2002 2019. Fire variables correlated with burned. predicted than double scenario, attendant doubling Conclusions Exceptional seasons like will become likely, wildfire extremes exceed anything yet witnessed. Safeguarding communities supporting resilient ecosystems require lines scientific inquiry, land management approaches accelerated mitigation efforts.

Language: Английский

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Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(6)

Published: June 1, 2022

Abstract Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests interior western United States, temperate rain Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, debates surrounding what drove 2020 fires, management strategies to adapt similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation fires. We evaluate questions regarding Labor Day fires: (1) How do fires compare with historical fires? (2) did roles weather antecedent climate differ geographically from past (1979–2019)? (3) size severity other (1985–2019), how prefire structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these on westside landscapes? (5) can we future? Although 5 were larger than any others burned ~10 times area high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, remarkably consistent Reports early 1900s, along paleo‐ dendro‐ecological records, indicate potentially even wildfires over millennium, many which shared seasonality (late August/early September), conditions, geographic locations. Consistent largest strong east winds anomalously conditions rapid spread wildfire 2020. found minimal difference among stand structural types related Adaptation for could benefit by focusing ignition prevention, suppression, community preparedness, opposed fuel treatments that are unlikely mitigate during extreme weather. While uncertainties remain nature infrequent, forests, particularly under change, adapting their occurrence require different those interior, forests.

Language: Английский

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Smoke from 2020 United States wildfires responsible for substantial solar energy forecast errors

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 034010 - 034010

Published: Feb. 2, 2022

Abstract The 2020 wildfire season (May through December) in the United States was exceptionally active, with National Interagency Fire Center reporting over 10 million acres ( > 40 000 km 2 ) burned. During September events, large concentrations of smoke particulates were emitted into atmosphere. As a result, responsible for ∼10%–30% reduction solar power production during peak hours as recorded by California Independent System Operator (CAISO) sites. In this study, we focus on 9 d period when had profound impact energy production. episodes, hour-ahead forecasts utilized CAISO did not include effects and therefore overestimated expected ∼10%–50%. Here use multiple observational networks numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to show that events significantly detrimental influence due high aerosol loading. We find including contribution biomass burning particles greatly improves day-ahead bias forecast both global horizontal irradiance direct normal nearly ∼50%. Our results suggest more comprehensive treatment aerosols, NWP models may be an important consideration grid balancing, addition resource assessment, reliance increases.

Language: Английский

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Human and infrastructure exposure to large wildfires in the United States

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 1343 - 1351

Published: July 3, 2023

Language: Английский

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The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal

iScience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 26(3), P. 106141 - 106141

Published: Feb. 4, 2023

Portugal is regularly affected by destructive wildfires that have severe social, economic, and ecological impacts. The total burnt area in 2017 (∼540,000 ha) marked the all-time record value since 1980 with a tragic toll of 114 fatalities occurred June October events. local insurance sector declared it was costliest natural disaster payouts exceeding USD295 million. Here, event, responsible for more than 200,000 ha 50 analyzed from compound perspective. A prolonged drought led to preconditioned cumulative hydric stress vegetation 2017. In addition, on 15 2017, two other major drivers played critical role: 1) passage hurricane Ophelia off Coast Portugal, exceptional meteorological conditions 2) human agent, an extremely elevated number negligent ignitions. This disastrous combination anthropogenic uncontrolled observed October.

Language: Английский

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Downslope Wind‐Driven Fires in the Western United States

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(5)

Published: May 1, 2023

Abstract Downslope wind‐driven fires have resulted in many of the wildfire disasters western United States and represent a unique hazard to infrastructure human life. We analyze co‐occurrence wildfires downslope winds across (US) during 1992–2020. accounted for 13.4% 11.9% burned area US yet majority local portions southern California, central Washington, front range Rockies. These were predominantly ignited by humans, occurred closer population centers, outsized impacts on lives infrastructure. Since 1999, 60.1% structures 52.4% lost US. under anomalously dry fuels exhibited seasonality distinct from other fires—occurring primarily spring fall. Over 1992–2020, we document 25% increase annual number 140% their respective area, which partially reflects trends toward drier fuels. results advance our understanding importance driving disastrous that threaten populated regions adjacent mountain ranges The characteristics require increased fire prevention adaptation strategies minimize losses incorporation changing human‐ignitions, fuel availability dryness, wind occurrence elucidate future risk.

Language: Английский

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Simulated Future Shifts in Wildfire Regimes in Moist Forests of Pacific Northwest, USA

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Abstract Fire is an integral natural disturbance in the moist temperate forests of Pacific Northwest United States, but future changes remain uncertain. regimes this climatically and biophysically diverse region are complex, typically climate limited. One challenge for interpreting potential conveying projection uncertainty. Using projections Energy Release Component (ERC) derived from 12 global models (GCM) that vary performance relative to region's contemporary climate, we simulated thousands plausible fire seasons with stochastic spatial spread model FSim mid‐21st century (2035–2064) under RCP8.5 emissions scenario five northwestern pyromes. The magnitude projected burn probability, size, number fires varied among pyromes GCMs. We largest increases probability size cooler wetter northern parts (North Cascades, Olympics & Puget Lowlands) Oregon West more moderate Washington Cascades Coast Range. provide new insights into changing characterized by possibility shifts toward frequent large (especially >40,000 ha), as well seasonality, including burning at beginning fall when extreme synoptic weather events have increase spread. Our work highlights geographic variability change effects some most productive world points a rapid acceleration coming decades.

Language: Английский

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Vulnerability of structures and infrastructure to wildfires: a perspective into assessment and mitigation strategies

Natural Hazards, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 14, 2025

Language: Английский

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Machine Learning Based Risk Analysis and predictive Modeling of Structure Fire related Casualties

Machine Learning with Applications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100645 - 100645

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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