Rising rainfall intensity induces spatially divergent hydrological changes within a large river basin

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 27, 2024

Abstract Droughts or floods are usually attributed to precipitation deficits surpluses, both of which may become more frequent and severe under continued global warming. Concurring large-scale droughts in the Southwest flooding Southeast China recent decades have attracted considerable attention, but their causes interrelations not well understood. Here, we examine spatiotemporal changes hydrometeorological variables investigate mechanism underlying contrasting soil dryness/wetness patterns over a 54-year period (1965–2018) across representative mega-watershed South China—the West River Basin. We demonstrate that increasing rainfall intensity leads drying upstream with decreases water storage, yield, baseflow, versus increases therein downstream. Our study highlights simultaneous occurrence increased drought risks due interactions between intensification topography river basin, implying increasingly vulnerable food security climate change.

Language: Английский

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Modeling glacio-hydrological processes in the Himalayas: A review and future perspectives

Geography and sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(2), P. 179 - 192

Published: Jan. 13, 2024

The Himalayas and their surrounding areas boast vast glaciers rivaling those in polar regions, supplying vital meltwater to the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra rivers, supporting over a billion downstream inhabitants for drinking, power, agriculture. With changing runoff patterns due accelerated glacial melt, understanding projecting glacio-hydrological processes these basins is imperative. This review assesses evolution, applications, key challenges diverse glacio-hydrology models across Himalayas, varying complexities like ablation algorithms, glacier dynamics, ice avalanches, permafrost. Previous findings indicate higher melt contributions annual Indus compared Ganges Brahmaputra, with anticipated peak melting latter basins—having less cover—before mid-21st century, contrasting delayed expected basin its larger area. Different modeling studies still have large uncertainties simulated components Himalayan basins; projections of future time vary at different Himalaya sub-basins under CMIP scenarios. We also find that lack reliable meteorological forcing data (particularly precipitation errors) major source uncertainty basins. Furthermore, permafrost degradation compounds challenges, complicating assessments freshwater availability. Urgent measures include establishing comprehensive situ observations, innovating remote-sensing technologies (especially monitoring), advancing integrate glacier, snow, processes. These endeavors are crucial informed policymaking sustainable resource management this pivotal, glacier-dependent ecosystem.

Language: Английский

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Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(3), P. 669 - 689

Published: Feb. 15, 2024

Abstract. The major rivers on the Tibetan Plateau supply important freshwater resources to riparian regions but have been undergoing significant climate change in recent decades. Understanding sensitivities of hydrological processes is for water resource management, large divergences exist previous studies because uncertainties models and projection data. Meanwhile, spatial pattern local was poorly explored despite strong heterogeneity Plateau. This study adopted perturbation method analyze a typical mountainous basin (Yarlung Tsangpo River, YTR) change. We utilized tracer-aided model Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed-Tracer-aided version (THREW-T) simulate cryospheric YTR basin. Multiple datasets internal stations were used validate provide confidence baseline simulation sensitivity analysis. Results indicated that (1) THREW-T performed well simulating streamflow, snow cover area (SCA), glacier mass balance (GMB) stream isotope, ensuring good representation key reasonable estimation runoff components. acceptably streamflow at eight located mainstream two tributaries, indicating reflected by model. (2) Increasing temperature led decreasing annual runoff, smaller inter-annual variation, more even intra-annual distribution an earlier maximum runoff. It also influenced regime increasing contributions rainfall melt overland subsurface snowmelt precipitation had opposite effect temperature. (3) response varied significantly, with changing rate −18.6 % 54.3 5∘ warming. ratio (GAR) dominant factor both perturbed precipitation. Some non-monotonic perturbation, which represented most dynamic within basin, as they kept shifting between energy- water-limited stages. GAR mean (MAP) linear relation formed boundary different trends GAR–MAP plot.

Language: Английский

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Isotope data-constrained hydrological model improves soil moisture simulation and runoff source apportionment

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 633, P. 131006 - 131006

Published: March 7, 2024

Multiple-objective calibration helps constrain the parameter uncertainties and improve performances of hydrological models. Previous studies have indicated that toward soil moisture data could streamflow simulation, but its influence on runoff source apportionment quantification still needs to be analyzed. Meanwhile, although isotope has proved representation internal processes, value simulation state variables such as yet examined. This study utilized tracer-aided model THREW-T (Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed – Tracer-aided version) in two mountainous basins Tibetan Plateau (The Upper Brahmaputra Yangtze basins) evaluate calibration. The result shows that: (1) produced good streamflow, snow cover area, moisture, stream water simultaneously areas. Calibration caused slight (∼0.03) statistically significant (p < 0.01) decrease Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient compared baseline variant only streamflow. (2) brought no improvement for validation period stations both basins, improving simulation. However, improved simulations moisture's spatiotemporal variation. (3) Different variants resulted different estimations apportionment, independent evidence results obtained by were most reasonable. Calibrations underestimated overestimated contributions from subsurface runoff, respectively. Isotope was sensitive objective significantly reduced uncertainty. Our found a lower than we believe full potential not due current limitations measurement methods, development relevant technologies will make more valuable

Language: Английский

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Systematic analyses of the meteorological forcing and process parameterization uncertainties in modeling runoff with Noah-MP for the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132686 - 132686

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Climatic Controls on Hydrological Landslide Triggering in the Northern Himalayas

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Abstract Hydrologically‐induced landslides are ubiquitous natural hazards in the Himalayas, posing severe threat to human life and infrastructure. Yet, landslide assessment Himalayas is extremely challenging partly due complex drastically changing climate conditions. Here we establish a mechanistic hydromechanical modeling framework that incorporates impacts of key water fluxes stocks on triggering risk evolution mountain systems, accounting for potential change conditions period 1991–2100. In drainage basin largest river northern Himalayas– Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB), estimate rainfall, glacier/snow melt permafrost thaw contribute ∼38.4%, 28.8%, 32.8% landslides, respectively, 1991–2019. Future will likely exacerbate primarily increasing whereas contribution decreases owing deglaciation snow cover loss. The total Gross Domestic Productivity projected increase continuously throughout 21st century, while population shows general declining trend. results yield novel insights into climatic controls provide useful guidance disaster management resilience building under future Himalayas.

Language: Английский

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Solid Water Melt Dominates the Increase of Total Groundwater Storage in the Tibetan Plateau

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(18)

Published: Sept. 13, 2022

Abstract Understanding how groundwater storage (GWS) responds to climate change is essential for water resources management and future availability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, dominant factor controlling long‐term GWS changes remains unclear its responses are not well understood. Here we combined multi‐source datasets including in‐situ measurements, satellite observations, global models, reanalysis products reveal that increased at 5.59 ± 1.44 Gt/yr during 2003–2016 while showing spatial heterogeneities with increasing trends northern TP glacial regions declining central southern TP. The accelerated transformation from solid (glaciers, snow, permafrost; −17.72 1.53 Gt/yr) into liquid provide more recharge groundwater, dominating total increase. This study contributes a better understanding of hydrological cycle under provides key information projecting different scenarios

Language: Английский

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Impacts of frozen ground degradation and vegetation greening on upper Brahmaputra runoff during 1981–2019

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 43(8), P. 3768 - 3781

Published: March 2, 2023

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP) contains the largest permafrost region in mid–low latitudes and area of glaciers outside polar regions. In recent decades, this has experienced vegetation greening (e.g., increasing leaf index) due to climate change. As exorheic river on TP, Upper Brahmaputra Basin (UBB) is very sensitive change, experiencing humidifying significant warming. study, we investigated spatiotemporal variability frozen ground over last four decades UBB explored how these changes have impacted runoff using a water‐ energy‐budget distributed hydrological model (WEB‐DHM). We found that almost 50% transformed into seasonally or unfrozen from 1981 2019 with great improvement index (LAI). Based variable‐controlling approach (set air temperature unchanged), revealed degradation caused an average 9.3 billion m 3 water loss per year, accounting for 5.4% total runoff, even if can increase resources at early stage. However, decline by 10.9 (6.4%) annually enhanced evapotranspiration. These findings highlight it critical understand mitigate impacts changing vegetation, when managing availability ecosystem conservation under rapid

Language: Английский

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Increased glacier melt enhances future extreme floods in the southern Tibetan Plateau

Advances in Climate Change Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 431 - 441

Published: Jan. 14, 2024

Mountainous areas are of special hydrological concern because topography and atmospheric conditions can result in large sudden floods, posing serious risks to water-related safety neighbouring countries. The Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) River basin is the largest river on Tibetan Plateau (TP), but how floods will discharge this role glacier melt change throughout 21st-century under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5) remain unclear. Here, we comprehensively address scientific question based a well-validated large-scale glacier-hydrology model. results indicate that extreme was projected increase YZ basin, mainly reflected increased duration (4–10 d per decade) intensity (153–985 m3 s−1 decade). Glacier runoff (2–30 mm 21st-century, there also noticeable decrease or deceleration growth late first half century SSP2-4.5, latter SSP5-8.5. enhance (12%–23%) (15%–21%) both SSPs, which would aggravate impact future socioeconomics basin. This effect gradually overwhelmed by precipitation-induced from outlet. study takes as projection framework example help enrich understanding flood hazards basins affected rainfall- meltwater across TP, policy-makers water managers develop plans.

Language: Английский

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Long-term response of runoff and sediment load to spatiotemporally varied rainfall in the Lhasa River basin, Tibetan Plateau

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 618, P. 129154 - 129154

Published: Jan. 23, 2023

Language: Английский

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