Sea Surface Temperature and Marine Heat Wave Predictions in the South China Sea: A 3D U-Net Deep Learning Model Integrating Multi-Source Data DOI Creative Commons
Bowen Xie, Jifeng Qi, Shuguo Yang

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 86 - 86

Published: Jan. 9, 2024

Accurate sea surface temperature (SST) prediction is vital for disaster prevention, ocean circulation, and climate change. Traditional SST methods, predominantly reliant on time-intensive numerical models, face challenges in terms of speed efficiency. In this study, we developed a novel deep learning approach using 3D U-Net structure with multi-source data to forecast the South China Sea (SCS). SST, height anomaly (SSHA), wind (SSW) were used as input variables. Compared convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) model, model achieved more accurate predictions at all lead times (from 1 30 days) performed better different seasons. Spatially, model’s exhibited low errors (RMSE < 0.5 °C) high correlation (R > 0.9) across most SCS. The spatially averaged time series both predicted by observed 2021, showed remarkable consistency. A noteworthy application research was successful detection marine heat wave (MHW) events SCS 2021. accurately captured occurrence frequency, total duration, average cumulative intensity MHW events, aligning closely data. Sensitive experiments that SSHA SSW have significant impacts which can improve accuracy play roles periods. combination variables, not only rapidly but also presented method forecasting highlighting its potential advantages.

Language: Английский

The seas around China in a warming climate DOI
Fan Wang, Xuegang Li, Xiaohui Tang

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(8), P. 535 - 551

Published: July 18, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

79
Diversity of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea Regulated by ENSO Phase DOI Open Access

Kai Liu,

Kang Xu, Congwen Zhu

et al.

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 35(2), P. 877 - 893

Published: Nov. 12, 2021

Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the South China Sea (SCS) have dramatic impacts on local ecosystems, fisheries, and aquacultures. Our results show that SCS MHWs were strongly regulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with a distinct life cycle during 1982–2018. Based ENSO-associated sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) warming peaks SCS, we can classify into three categories: Niño-P1 first peak of Niño from September to following February, Niño-P2 second June September, La Niña-P1 single Niña February May. The types are all affected lower-level enhanced anticyclone over western North Pacific (WNP), but their physical mechanisms quite different. In Niño-P1, mostly induced net downward shortwave radiation reduced latent heat flux loss southwestern northern respectively. Niño-P2, primarily attributed weaker entrainment cooling caused stronger Ekman downwelling central-northern SCS. However, Niña-P1, mainly contributed due WNP centered east Philippines pentad time scale. spatial distributions phase locking SSTA warming, which provides potential seasonal forecast according ENSO phase.

Language: Английский

Citations

56
Marine heatwave events near Weizhou Island, Beibu Gulf in 2020 and their possible relations to coral bleaching DOI Creative Commons
Yuting Feng, Brandon J. Bethel, Changming Dong

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 823, P. 153414 - 153414

Published: Feb. 5, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

53
Summer marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: Trend, variability and possible causes DOI Creative Commons
Hongjian Tan, Rongshuo Cai, Renguang Wu

et al.

Advances in Climate Change Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(3), P. 323 - 332

Published: April 12, 2022

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been frequently observed worldwide, causing devastating impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems, but the trend of MHWs is still unclear in South China Sea (SCS). Here, long-term inter-annual variability summer SCS MHW events are investigated based high-resolution daily satellite data. The results revealed remarkable increases duration, intensity, coverage, severity during 1982–2019, indicating that become more frequent, intense, extensive, serious. probability ratio four times 2010s 1980s. increasing can be largely attributed to increase mean temperature. linked closely El Niño Southern Oscillation, with more/less occurring following after Niño/La Niña events. A diagnosis synoptic-scale heat budget suggests extreme warming explained by combined effects positive surface flux due enhanced shortwave radiation convergence oceanic advection association an anomalous upper-ocean anticyclone. effect seems predominant over large spatial whereas transport also important some specific regions. large-scale anticyclonic circulation anomalies northwestern Pacific accompanying westward-extending western subtropical high decay summers play essential role building-up persistence warming, which has implications for prediction MHWs.

Language: Английский

Citations

53
The record-breaking 2022 long-lasting marine heatwaves in the East China Sea DOI Creative Commons
Hyoeun Oh, Go‐Eun Kim, Jung‐Eun Chu

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(6), P. 064015 - 064015

Published: May 4, 2023

Abstract In 2022, record-breaking long-lasting marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the East China Sea (ECS), which persisted for 62 d during boreal summer. This exceeded average MHWs duration of 10 by a factor 6. addition, 2022 was also recorded as year many extreme events throughout Asia, such summer floods and Pakistan, droughts heat Europe, raising question whether they were caused ‘triple-dip’ La Niña, has since September 2020. Here we examine key local remote processes that led to ECS using mixed-layer budget analysis. During onset MHWs, salinity-stratified shallow due large river discharge from Yangtze–Huaihe River June created favorable conditions warm ocean temperature ECS. Simultaneously, an anomalous anticyclone maintained stationary Rossby wave, is generated vorticity forcings mid-latitudes thermal forcing settled corresponding region until Typhoon Hinnamnor began dissipate wave early September. study improves our understanding physical mechanism flood-related have increased with recent climate change.

Language: Английский

Citations

25
A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate DOI Creative Commons
Antonietta Capotondi, Regina R. Rodrigues, Alex Sen Gupta

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Nov. 20, 2024

Abstract Marine heatwaves have profoundly impacted marine ecosystems over large areas of the world oceans, calling for improved understanding their dynamics and predictability. Here, we critically review recent substantial advances in this active area research, including exploration three-dimensional structure evolution these extremes, drivers, connection with other extremes ocean land, future projections, assessment predictability current prediction skill. To make progress on predicting projecting impacts, a more complete mechanistic full depth at relevant spatial temporal scales is needed, together models that can realistically capture leading mechanisms those scales. Sustained observing systems, as well measuring platforms be rapidly deployed, are essential to achieve comprehensive event characterizations while also chronicling evolving nature impacts our changing climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Forecasting Summer Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea Using Explainable Machine Learning Models DOI
Chris Mi,

An Yi,

Jingyuan Xue

et al.

Deep Sea Research Part I Oceanographic Research Papers, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 104457 - 104457

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Contrasting Impacts of Two Types of El Niño on Interannual Variations of Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea DOI
Ningning Zhang, Jian Lan, Wenjin Sun

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

Abstract This study utilizes multiple observational and reanalysis data sets to investigate the contrasting effects of Eastern Pacific (EP) Central (CP) El Niño on interannual variations marine heatwaves (MHWs) in South China Sea (SCS) from developing autumn decaying summer Niño. EP is associated with more frequent, intense, prolonged MHWs throughout its life cycle, while CP linked a general decrease MHW characteristics, except summer. During Niño, an anomalous anticyclone over SCS during induces warming mainly by increasing shortwave radiation diminishing latent heat release, fostering development. The persists into summer, intensified influence western North subtropical high (WNPSH). Reduced are primarily attributed cooling early cessation connected enhanced Ekman upwelling, negative horizontal advection caused cyclone around SCS. fade due northeastward shift WNPSH compared scenario, which reduces ability warm sea surface temperature (SST) evolutions events highlight thermal status as critical factors for occurrence persistence, underscoring necessity assess state preceding SST increases research.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Properties and Drivers of Marine Heat Waves in the Northern South China Sea DOI Open Access
Qiang Wang, Bo Zhang, Lili Zeng

et al.

Journal of Physical Oceanography, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 52(5), P. 917 - 927

Published: Feb. 16, 2022

Abstract The properties and heat budget of marine waves (MHWs) on the northern South China Sea (SCS) continental shelf are investigated. MHWs with warming amplitudes above 1.5°C occur mainly along coast, their temperature anomaly decreases toward open sea. 1°–1.5°C duration < 20 days dominate SCS shelf. A analysis indicates that main source is sea surface net flux. Oceanic processes dominated by advection mean anomalous horizontal velocity (advha). contribution advha always cools upper layer ocean, resulting in decay MHWs. Active cross-slope water exchanges exist at east west sides edge, which makes dominant contributions to advha. In MHW developing phase, (east) side a positive (negative) both make negative advha, rapid Although varies its effect over These results provide new insight into characteristics formation mechanism shelf; particular, they clarify respective air–sea flux oceanic Significance Statement Marine unusual events oceans heavily affect ecosystems arouse great concern from citizens. active On shelf, MHWs, ocean current anomalies cool ocean. exchange edge way eventually

Language: Английский

Citations

35
Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea Based on Deep Learning DOI Creative Commons
Peng Hao, Shuang Li, Jinbao Song

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 1656 - 1656

Published: March 18, 2023

Sea surface temperature is an important physical parameter in marine research. Accurate prediction of sea for coping with climate change, ecological protection, and economic development. In this study, the SST performance ConvLSTM ST-ConvLSTM different input lengths, hidden sizes investigated. The experimental results show that: (1) length has impact on SST, but it does not mean that longer length, better performance. have best when set to 1, gradually decreases as increases. (2) Prediction affects prediction. As increases, decreases. When other parameters are kept constant only changed, gets result 2, 1. (3) setting size a great influence ability temperature, cannot be blindly. For ST-ConvLSTM, although 128 than 64, consequent computational cost increases by about 50%, improves 10%.

Language: Английский

Citations

22