Global Carbon Budget 2024

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 965 - 1039

Published: March 14, 2025

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize datasets methodologies quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC) data bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The net uptake by ocean (SOCEAN, called sink) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 fugacity CO2). land (SLAND, dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence sinks provided atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system sum all sources results imbalance (BIM), measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2023, EFOS increased 1.3 % relative 2022, fossil at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 when carbonation sink not included), ELUC was 1.0 0.7 yr−1, for total emission (including 11.1 0.9 (40.6 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, GATM 5.9 0.2 (2.79 0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.9 0.4 SLAND 2.3 near-zero BIM (−0.02 averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ppm. Preliminary 2024 suggest an increase +0.8 (−0.2 1.7 %) globally 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 52 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2023, overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) low agreement between different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy sink. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Language: Английский

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Variability in the Global Ocean Carbon Sink From 1959 to 2020 by Correcting Models With Observations

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(14)

Published: July 2, 2022

Abstract The ocean reduces human impact on the climate by absorbing and sequestering CO 2 . From 1950s to 1980s, observations of pCO related carbon variables were sparse uncertain. Thus, global biogeochemical models (GOBMs) have been basis for quantifying sink. LDEO‐Hybrid Physics Data product (LDEO‐HPD) interpolates surface data coverage using GOBMs as priors, applying machine learning estimate full‐coverage corrections. largest component GOBM corrections are climatological. This is consistent with recent findings large seasonal discrepancies in GOBMs, but contrasts long‐held view that interannual variability a major source error. supports extension LDEO‐HPD back 1959, climatology model‐observation misfits prior 1982. Consistent previous studies 1980 onward, air‐sea fluxes 1959–2020 demonstrate response atmospheric growth volcanic eruptions.

Language: Английский

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The Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle 1985–2018: Mean, Seasonal Cycle, Trends, and Storage

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(11)

Published: Nov. 1, 2023

Abstract We assess the Southern Ocean CO 2 uptake (1985–2018) using data sets gathered in REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2. The acted as a sink for with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75 ± 0.28 PgC yr −1 ) p ‐observation‐based products (0.73 0.07 ). This is only half that reported by RECCAP1 same region timeframe. present‐day net to first order response rising atmospheric , driving large amounts of anthropogenic (C ant into ocean, thereby overcompensating loss natural atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap increase since 2000, ‐products suggesting growth more than twice strong uncertain GOBMs (0.26 0.06 0.11 0.03 Pg C decade respectively). despite nearly identical trends when both are compared at locations where was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed processes winter uncertainty magnitude outgassing, whereas discrepancies fundamental summer, exhibit difficulties simulating effects non‐thermal biology mixing/circulation. interior accumulation points an underestimate storage GOBMs. Future work needs link surface fluxes transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks push toward better process understanding drivers carbon cycle.

Language: Английский

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Monitoring the Multiple Stages of Climate Tipping Systems from Space: Do the GCOS Essential Climate Variables Meet the Needs?

Surveys in Geophysics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 46(2), P. 327 - 374

Published: Feb. 18, 2025

Language: Английский

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Using OCO-2 Observations to Constrain Regional CO2 Fluxes Estimated with the Vegetation, Photosynthesis and Respiration Model

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. 177 - 177

Published: Jan. 7, 2025

A good quantitative knowledge of regional sources and sinks atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is essential for understanding the global cycle. It also a key prerequisite elaborating cost-effective national strategies to achieve goals Paris Agreement. However, available estimates CO2 fluxes many regions world remain uncertain, despite significant recent progress in remote sensing terrestrial vegetation CO2. In this study, we investigate feasibility inferring reliable net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using column-averaged dry-air mole fractions (XCO2) retrieved from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) observations as constraints on parameters widely used Vegetation Photosynthesis Respiration model (VPRM), which predicts based indices derived multispectral satellite imagery. We developed regional-scale inverse modeling system that applies Bayesian variational optimization algorithm optimize VPRM coupled CHIMERE chemistry transport involves preliminary transformation input XCO2 data reduces impact boundary conditions inversion results. investigated potential our by applying it European region (that includes, particular, EU countries UK) warm season (May–September) 2021. The OCO-2 resulted major (more than threefold) reduction prior uncertainty NEE estimate. posterior estimate agrees with independent provided CarbonTracker Europe High-Resolution (CTE-HR) ensemble v10 intercomparison (MIP) inversions. found improves agreement simulations retrievals Total Column Observing Network (TCCON). Our sensitivity test experiments synthetic indicate would even if actual drastically differed their values. Furthermore, be robust strong biases random uncertainties conditions. Overall, study suggests approach offers relatively simple way derive while enhancing applicability where eddy covariance measurements are scarce.

Language: Английский

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Temporal-spatial variation and regulatory mechanism of carbon budgets in territorial space through the lens of carbon balance: A case of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomerations, China

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 154, P. 110885 - 110885

Published: Sept. 1, 2023

As China's largest cross-regional urban agglomerations, the middle reaches of Yangtze River agglomerations (MRYRUA) possess both significant societal carbon source volume and ecological sequestration capacity. Nevertheless, with uncontrolled expansion energy consumption activities industry migration from eastern coastal regions to inland cities, budget pattern territorial space is increasingly unbalanced in MRYRUA. To achieve low-carbon regulation, this study utilized land use data 31 cities within MRYRUA establish a "carbon source-carbon sink" quantification spatiotemporal exploration model, revealing spatial-temporal variation budgets 2005 2020. Furthermore, we developed balance indicator analysis system by employing offset rate (COR), productivity (CP), Gini coefficient, support coefficient (ESC), economic contribution (ECC), functional zoning was performed. Finally, using GM (1,1) derived for 2050 explored differentiated regulatory mechanisms under perspective. The results indicated that: (1) MRYRUA's have increased annually, displaying spatial distribution highest values central region, followed northwest, lowest southeast near water bodies. differentiation effects manifest as an east–west axial development trend, clustering demonstrating propensity outward dispersion northern hot spot radiation core. (2) COR has consistently remained below 10% decreased while CP shown yearly increase at accelerating rate. ESC ECC exhibit evident heterogeneity among cities. In response emission benefits carrying capacity reflected indicators, each city classified into zones, intensity control sink high-carbon optimization zones. (3) From 2020 2050, polarization trend continues intensify. Subsequently, established mechanism. This mechanism strengthens leading role zones green transition, moderately retains solid fixation capabilities, promotes transition research findings provide scientific basis formulating planning policies neutrality

Language: Английский

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Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Global Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Non-technical summary We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability implications overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for rapid managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future contribution sinks, (5) intertwinedness crises biodiversity loss change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility face risks, (9) adaptation justice, (10) just transitions food systems. Technical The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides scientific foundation international negotiations constitutes an unmatched resource researchers. However, assessment cycles take multiple years. As to cross- interdisciplinary understanding diverse communities, we have streamlined annual process synthesize significant advances. collected input from experts various fields using online questionnaire prioritized 10 key insights relevance. This year, focus on: overshoot urgency scale-up joint governance accelerated amidst present succinct account these insights, reflect their implications, offer integrated policy-relevant messages. science synthesis communication effort is also basis report contributing elevate every year time United Nations Conference. Social media highlight – more than 200 experts.

Language: Английский

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Effectiveness of Chemical Oxygen Demand as an Indicator of Organic Pollution in Aquatic Environments

Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

The chemical oxygen demand (COD) is an essential indicator of organic pollution that represents the amount bulk carbon in water. COD strongly correlated with nutrient cycles and other pollutants environment, but it has a limited ability to quantify (OC), which large proportion made up refractory dissolved (RDOC) potential sink. Moreover, biodegradability OC terms its fate destination should be explored, as well how this reflected by COD. Methods based on particle size, spectroscopy, isotopic tracing are expected help deciphering bioavailability COD-responsive explore processes biogeochemical cycles. As pressure environment from anthropogenic inputs increases, understanding associated will developing more precise scientific indicators for environmental monitoring identifying new tools increase knowledge cycle. In review, we discuss application, scope, means, advances measurement. Based data literature, estimate global RDOC stock assess impact cycle offshore bays. This review presents insights into behavior aquatic environments pathway ocean negative emissions expanding role sink offset effect emissions.

Language: Английский

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Improved Constraints on the Recent Terrestrial Carbon Sink Over China by Assimilating OCO‐2 XCO₂ Retrievals

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128(14)

Published: July 10, 2023

Abstract The magnitude and distribution of China's terrestrial carbon sink remain uncertain due to insufficient observational constraints; satellite column‐average dry‐air mole fraction dioxide (XCO 2 ) retrievals may fill some this gap. Here, we estimate using atmospheric inversions the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO‐2) XCO within different platforms, including Global Assimilation System (GCAS) v2, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, OCO‐2 Model Inter‐comparison Project (MIP). We find that they consistently place largest net biome production (NBP) in south on an annual basis compared northeast other main agricultural areas during peak growing season, coinciding well with forests crops, respectively. Moreover, mean seasonal cycle amplitude NBP is obviously larger than biosphere model simulations slightly greater surface CO inversions. More importantly, constrained temperate, tropical, subtropical monsoon climate zones, better inter‐model consistency at a sub‐regional scale situ simulations. In addition, China for 2015–2019 be between 0.34 (GCASv2) 0.47 ± 0.16 PgC/yr (median std; v10 MIP), indicate impacts extremes (e.g., 2019 drought) interannual variations NBP. Our results suggest assimilating crucial improving our understanding regime.

Language: Английский

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Carbon Cycle–Climate Feedbacks in the Post-Paris World

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 52(1), P. 467 - 493

Published: Jan. 18, 2024

The Paris Agreement calls for emissions reductions to limit climate change, but how will the carbon cycle change if it is successful? land and oceans currently absorb roughly half of anthropogenic emissions, this fraction decline in future. amount that can be released before mitigated depends on ocean terrestrial ecosystems absorb. Policy based model projections, observations theory suggest effects emerging today's increase tipping points may crossed. Warming temperatures, drought, a slowing growth rate CO2 itself reduce sinks create new sources, making sequestration forests, soils, other aquatic vegetation more difficult. Observations, data-assimilative models, prediction systems are needed managing ongoing long-term changes after achieving net-zero emissions. ▪International agreements call stabilizing at 1.5° above preindustrial, while world already seeing damaging extremes below that.▪If stabilized near target, driving force most slow, feedbacks from warmer continue cause sources.▪Once reduced net zero, cycle-climate require support active management maintain storage.

Language: Английский

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