High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw DOI Creative Commons
Jakob Deutloff, Hermann Held,

Timothy M. Lenton

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. 565 - 583

Published: April 23, 2025

Abstract. We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and how they are altered by including additional carbon emissions that could arise from within Earth's cycle. The crossing a point at threshold level global mean surface temperature (threshold temperature) would commit affected subsystem Earth to abrupt largely irreversible changes with negative impacts on human well-being. However, it remains unclear which be triggered different SSPs due uncertainties in sensitivity anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures timescales points, response cycle warming. include those our analysis derive for 16 previously identified system. To conduct analysis, we use reduced complexity model FaIR (Finite amplitude Impulse Response) is coupled conceptual processes Amazon rainforest permafrost, two major Uncertainties propagated employing Monte Carlo approach construction large ensembles. find increase risk high-temperature pathways, but average their warming effect small, its median staying 1 order magnitude lower than all SSPs. Therefore, have low potential probability other points. maximum among occurs SSP2-4.5, 3 percentage averaged over trajectory expected current policies compares best unsafe regard Our most conservative estimate 62 % nine more 50 getting triggered. Under SSP1-2.6 SSP1-1.9, significantly compared SSP2-4.5; however, also less constrained since behaviour case overshoot still highly uncertain.

Language: Английский

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review DOI Creative Commons
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 41 - 74

Published: Jan. 26, 2024

Abstract. Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples such include Greenland Ice Sheet, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual elements, interactions between them less well understood. Also, potential events to induce additional elsewhere or stabilize other is largely unknown. Here, we map out current state literature climate review influences them. To do so, gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, conceptual understanding, as paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. uncertainties large, find indications many destabilizing. Therefore, conclude should not only be in isolation, but also more emphasis has put interactions. This means cascades cannot ruled centennial millennial timescales warming levels 1.5 2.0 ∘C shorter if surpassed ∘C. At these higher then fast AMOC address crucial gaps element interactions, propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, system modeling expertise, computational advances, expert knowledge.

Language: Английский

Citations

27
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks DOI Creative Commons
Tessa Möller, Annika Högner, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

Abstract Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this would substantially increase probability triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate risks associated with several policy-relevant future scenarios, using stylised Earth system model four interconnected We show that following policies century commit to 45% risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back below °C. find increases every additional 0.1 overshoot above and strongly accelerates for peak 2.0 Achieving maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions 2100 paramount minimise in long term. Our results underscore stringent reductions decade critical planetary stability.

Language: Английский

Citations

17
Assessment of technologies and economics for carbon dioxide removal from a portfolio perspective DOI Creative Commons
Andreas Mühlbauer, Dominik Keiner, Christoph Gerhards

et al.

International journal of greenhouse gas control, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 141, P. 104297 - 104297

Published: Jan. 2, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Land system changes of terrestrial tipping elements on Earth under global climate pledges: 2000–2100 DOI Creative Commons

Jiaying Lv,

Yifan Gao, Changqing Song

et al.

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 27, 2025

Abstract Tipping elements on Earth are components that undergo rapid and irreversible changes when climate change reaches a tipping point. They highly sensitive to variations serve as early warning signs of global change. Human activities, including pledges, significantly influence the state elements. Land external intuitive response change, making it essential identify shifts in land system. We produced 1-km system dataset for terrestrial years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2100 under pledges by integrating GCAM with modified version CLUMondo. Our includes 30 thematic categories, combining three density types ten cover types. The illustrates potential contrasting common SSP RCP scenarios. simulations demonstrate high accuracy, offering valuable insights into assessment impacts Earth.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Tipping point-induced abrupt shifts in East Asian hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum DOI Creative Commons
Fuzhi Lu, Huayu Lu,

Yao Gu

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: Jan. 8, 2025

Multiple tipping points in the Earth system could be triggered when global warming exceeds specific thresholds. However, degree of their impact on East Asian hydroclimate remains uncertain due to lack quantitative rainfall records. Here we present an ensemble reconstruction summer monsoon (EASM) since Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using nine statistical and machine learning methods based multi-proxy records from a maar lake southern China. Our results define five EASM LGM, which are characterized by abrupt irreversible regime shifts with median amplitude 387 ± 73 mm (24 5 %). Combined multi-model simulations existing records, attribute these cascades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) Saharan vegetation. findings underscore nonlinear behavior its coupling other elements. The largely unknown. Here, is presented this identified.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
A century-long analysis of global warming and earth temperature using a random walk with drift approach DOI Creative Commons

Leon Wang,

Leigh Wang,

Yang Li

et al.

Decision Analytics Journal, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 7, P. 100237 - 100237

Published: April 28, 2023

Climate change poses the most significant threat to humanity today. This study examines global warming trend by analyzing temperature changes over past century, uncovering alarming results. Various models, including Random Walk with Drift approach R programming language, have been used compare different time horizons and scenarios. research demonstrates importance of utilizing advanced analytical techniques better understand climate change's impact. The findings underscore urgency implementing effective policies mitigate effects safeguard our planet's future.

Language: Английский

Citations

38
The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social–ecological transformations DOI Creative Commons
Erle C. Ellis

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(1893)

Published: Nov. 13, 2023

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental with disruptive changes—the Anthropocene condition—is not new. From food-producing hunter–gatherers, farmers, urban industrial food systems, the current entanglement has its roots in millennia evolving accumulating sociocultural capabilities shaping cultured environments that our societies have always lived (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative shape coupled adaptations enabling more effectively live transformed environments, social–ecological scales intensities transformations can accelerate through positive feedback loop ‘runaway construction’. Efforts achieve better future both people planet will depend on guiding runaway evolutionary process towards outcomes by redirecting Earth's most force nature: power aspirations. To guide force, narratives appeal aspirations be effective than crisis overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part theme issue ‘Evolution sustainability: gathering strands an synthesis’.

Language: Английский

Citations

34
Chapter 2 : Climate Trends. Fifth National Climate Assessment DOI
Kate Marvel, Wenying Su, Roberto Delgado

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

30
Klimaschutz durch Degrowth? – Ordonomische Anfragen an die Position radikaler Wachstumskrititk DOI
Ingo Pies, Felix Carl Schultz

ORDO, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 27, 2025

Kurzfassung Der Weltklimarat (IPCC) hat jüngst eine Autorengruppe wohlwollend rezipiert, die These vertritt, Klimaschutz könne (nur) durch Wachstumsverzicht – Nullwachstum und besser noch Negativwachstum ambitioniert vorangetrieben werden. Wir rekonstruieren diese spezifische Degrowth-Argumentation konfrontieren sie aus der Perspektive des ordonomischen Forschungsprogramms mit zwei kritischen Anfragen. Im Ergebnis sehen wir uns veranlasst, im Titel aufgeworfene Frage zu verneinen. Unsere Gegenargumente lauten: (a) Degrowth verkennt zivilisatorischen Vorzüge post-malthusianischen Wachstumsgesellschaft. (b) nimmt klimapolitische Herausforderung nicht ernst genug. Insbesondere wird unterschätzt, dass zum für nötig gehaltenen Innovationen unternehmerischer Anstrengungen bedürfen insofern marktwirtschaftliche Leistungsanreize voraussetzen.

Citations

1
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review DOI Creative Commons
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov

et al.

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Abstract. Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples such include Greenland Ice Sheet, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, permafrost, monsoon systems, Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual elements, interactions between them less well understood. Also, potential events to induce additional elsewhere, or stabilize other is largely unknown. Here, we map out current state literature climate review influences them. To do so, gathered evidence from model simulations, observations conceptual understanding, as archetypal paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. Lastly, identify crucial gaps in element outline how future research could address those gaps.

Language: Английский

Citations

20