Natural and anthropogenic contributions to desertification in Central Asia

CATENA, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 257, P. 109154 - 109154

Published: May 17, 2025

Language: Английский

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Evidence for preferred propagating terrestrial heatwave pathways due to Rossby wave activity

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: May 22, 2025

Abstract Terrestrial heatwaves are prolonged hot weather events often resulting in widespread socioeconomic impacts. Predicting remains challenging, partly due to limited understanding of the events’ spatial evolution and underlying mechanisms. Heatwaves were mainly examined at fixed stations, with little attention given fact that center a heatwave can move long distance. Here, we examine propagation terrestrial using complex network algorithm, find four preferred pathways northern hemisphere. Along each pathway, evolve two ways: propagating along pathway or being stationary. We show consistent movement Rossby wave trains, both guided by enhanced flux activities. The detected found provide prior knowledge for occurrences downstream be used identifying associated precursor signals. results shed light on mechanisms responsible potential predictability heatwaves.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(7), P. 866 - 866

Published: July 22, 2024

Future climate change and its impact on drought is critical for Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, the world’s largest arid zone. This study examines evolving intensity of events using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 6 (CMIP5 CMIP6) simulated under Representative Concentration Pathway Shared Socioeconomic (RCP SSP) scenarios. The projections show different rates increase temperature precipitation RCPs SSPs. Projected increases are expected to reach up 2–2.5 °C SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, by mid-century. By 2080–2099, an projected 2–3 monthly mean temperatures throughout year (SSP1-2.6), a more pronounced summer 3–4 (SSP2-4.5) 4–6 (SSP3-7.0), with marked contrast conditions between mountainous desert regions Uzbekistan. Regional changes over periods relatively little variability, except FD, where notable trends found. Under SSP1-2.6 modest, whereas SSP3-7.0 substantial, some experiencing variations 10–20 mm per period. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated based precipitation, provides estimate future trends. Our results increasing aridity all scenarios mid-century, longer-term indicating stabilization around SPEI values 2100: RCP2.6 SSP1-1.9 stabilize −1.0; RCP4.5, RCP6.0, −1.5; while RCP8.5 SSP5-8.5 project −2 or less 2100. Notable differences index found lowland foothill regions. In view Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance agriculture irrigation, which sectors that be mostly affected change, our scientific basis informed policy decision-making. includes various aspects such as planning management water resources, well broader socioeconomic development country.

Language: Английский

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Application of geospatial and remote sensing data to support locust management

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 117, P. 103212 - 103212

Published: Jan. 30, 2023

Negative impacts on agricultural activities by different locust species are well documented and have always been one of the major threats to food security livelihoods, especially for local communities. Locust management control led less frequent intense plagues outbreaks worldwide. However, political insecurity armed conflicts affect management, can as changing climate, land use contribute new outbreaks. In context increasing world population higher demand production, pests will remain high concern. Geospatial remote sensing data become an important source information applications within research management. there is still a gap between available actual practical usage. this study, we demonstrate importance geospatial how be prepared straightforward application stakeholders. For purpose, h3-hexagonal hierarchical indexing system simplify structure spatial into standardized hexagon units. The presented concept provides decision makers ground teams with simplified database that contains area-wide over time space used without detailed knowledge background. designed case Italian in Pavlodar region (Kazakhstan) based practices. It extrapolated any other study area or interest. Our results underline presence. Up-to-date derived from time-series analyses data. Furthermore, essential meteorological generate locust-specific climatic characteristics h3-system. Within system, areal prioritizing achieved included experience ongoing

Language: Английский

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Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Dust Storms and Aeolian Processes in the Southern Balkash Deserts in Kazakhstan, Central Asia

Land, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(3), P. 668 - 668

Published: March 12, 2023

Sand and dust storms are hazardous to the environment have a significant role in desertification. Under influence of climate change human activities, aeolian processes been common phenomena Southern Balkash deserts Kazakhstan, Central Asia. However, knowledge gaps on spatial temporal characteristics process still exist. Therefore, present study, meteorological observations numerous cartographic materials were used identify powerful sources with highest frequency deserts. The result showed that covered mainly by transverse parabolic sands (48%), dome dunes (24%), (23%), where occurred degree. Significant strong degrees most eastern part Taukum northern Zhamankum Karakum prone substantial Moiynkum, Bestas, Saryesikatyrau, had frequent storms, occuring, average, 17 43 days/per year. occurrence has stable decreasing trend since 1990s, except for 2008–2009. Aeolian flowed from western southwestern northeastern. results study shed light This is great importance helping monitor predict motion patterns this region.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of altitudinal ecohydrological dynamic changes on water balance under warming climate in a watershed of the Qilian Mountains, China

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 908, P. 168070 - 168070

Published: Oct. 30, 2023

Language: Английский

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Impacts of Climate Change in Afghanistan and an Overview of Sustainable Development Efforts

European Journal of Theoretical and Applied Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2(4), P. 495 - 516

Published: July 1, 2024

Afghanistan is ranked fourth of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Climate change impacts livelihoods, food insecurity, and displacement caused by human induce-activities like deforestation land pasture degradation. Drought major shock affecting 64% household in 2024. The study provides a comprehensive analysis country’s sustainable development efforts. This was done through an integrative literature review using database Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus Web Science with total 80 articles spanning from 2015 indicated that efforts impacted agricultural sector projected decline wheat, rice, barley (28%, 4.92%, 387kg respectively) 2050. not only country economy but also had impact SDG (Goal 1, 2, 3, 6, 8). temperature expected reach 1.5oC 3oC 2050 rainfall 25%. Precipitation will 12-25m Even though have been implement area health agriculture focus on reducing affect grain crops, 59.5% people still experience insecurity. Reforestation, conservation, community awareness base programs has enhanced. However, these initiatives are hampered lack regulations, government instability, limited finance. To counter Afghanistan, proposed recommendations such as international cooperation, funding for infrastructure health, agriculture, water resource management.

Language: Английский

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Rio (1992) to Glasgow (2021): Three decades of inadequate mitigation of climate change and its slow onset effects

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Sept. 26, 2022

This study reviews the global increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, including carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 and nitrous oxide (N O), alongside accelerated climatic change its slow onset effects (or events) between 1992 2021. The establishment of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992, simultaneous UN Earth Summit Rio de Janeiro, generated international efforts to tackle change. Over years, UNFCCC-Conference Parties (COP) has led climate mitigation adaptation, with many sequential meetings across world. Three decades later, at COP26 meeting Glasgow 2021, it is evident that impacts have substantially worsened. Despite some uncertainties, seems over last three decades, events, 1) increasing temperatures, 2) glacial retreat, 3) sea level rise, 4) ocean acidification, 5) soil salinization, 6) land forest degradation, 7) loss biodiversity, 8) desertification, exacerbated. Simultaneously, other (non-GHGs related) anthropogenic impacts, habitat fragmentation, land-use sea-use misuse, species overexploitation, environmental pollution, infrastructure constructions, urbanization, considerably increased. With aim achieving Shared Socio-Economic Pathways 1.9 (SSP1-1.9) or SSP1-2.6 ultimate goals—keeping warming 2,100 below 1.5°C 2.0°C, respectively, compared preindustrial levels—it may still be possible avoid change’s irreversible tipping points. To reach this target, policymaking must become more decisive proactive, continuous risks assessment, frequent monitoring outcomes their compatibility goals, implementing practical legislation tools, assigning specific financial instruments, aimed effectively tackling events related issues. Substantial should invested boosting mitigation, while simultaneously targeting effective adaptation measures promoting conservation restoration. Relying tools such as Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will sustain provisioning, supporting, regulating, cultural ecosystem services, thus improving water-, food-, environmental-, energy-, economic-, health-, governance-security, lessening social unrest, violent conflicts, mass migration, humanitarian catastrophes.

Language: Английский

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Vegetation history and its links to climate change during the last 36 ka in arid Central Asia: Evidence from a loess-paleosol sequence in the Eastern Ili Valley

Frontiers in Earth Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Jan. 17, 2023

Detailed vegetation history response to complex influencing factors of arid Central Asia (ACA) is crucial understanding ecological sustainability. Here, we present the first pollen record in Ili Valley during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using Jirentai (JRT) loess-paleosol sequence. Combining results multi-climate proxies and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, aim reconstruct vegetative climate change last 36 ka. Our show that rapid loess accumulation JRT section began Late MIS3 (Marine isotope stage 3), a thin paleosol layer developed LGM Post Glacial. The concentrations are significantly lower than paleosol, but assemblages richer. Artemisia Asteraceae dominant non-arboreal types loess, abundant arboreal species (e.g., Pinus , Picea, Quercus, Betulaceae). percentage remains high typical drought-tolerant plants an important component Orthomorphic, Ephedra ). We suggest rich variety transported by frequent intense dust activities, these may come from regional vegetation. Less diverse respond surrounding section. obtained shows lowlands were desert or desert-steppe for past mountains dominated Picea forests. During Early LGM, conditions deteriorated both mountainous lowland. above phenomena coincide with records lakes ACA. further mountain forests reappear lowland environment improves increased insolation Northern Hemisphere at latitudes LGM. This point time earlier about 5–10 ka compared previous records. attribute it fact sequence more sensitive transition glacial interglacial propose simple model characterize them.

Language: Английский

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Multivariate analysis of land surface dynamics in Central Asia: patterns of trends and drivers under a changing climate

GIScience & Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 61(1)

Published: June 17, 2024

Language: Английский

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