Qualifying uncertainty of precipitation projections over China: mitigating uncertainty with emergent constraints DOI Creative Commons

Zhang Jin-ge,

Chunxiang Li, Tianbao Zhao

et al.

Environmental Research Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(7), P. 071002 - 071002

Published: June 21, 2024

Abstract Predicting future mean precipitation poses significant challenges due to uncertainties among climate models, complicating water resource management. In this study, we introduce a novel methodology mitigate uncertainty in projections over China on grid-by-grid basis. By constraining parameters of the Gamma distribution, establish emergent constraints parameters, revealing correlations between historical and simulations. Our analysis spans periods 2040–2069 2070–2099 under low-to-moderate high emission scenarios. We observe reductions across most regions China, with constrained indicating increases monsoon decreases non-monsoon zones relative raw projections. Notably, observed 30%–40% increase for whole underscores efficacy our methodology. These observationally results provide valuable insights into current projections, offering actionable information planning adaptation strategies amidst uncertainties.

Language: Английский

Constraining Projected Changes in Rare Intense Precipitation Events Across Global Land Regions DOI Creative Commons
Chao Li, Qiaohong Sun, Jianyu Wang

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(3)

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Abstract Rare precipitation events with return periods of multiple decades to hundreds years are particularly damaging natural and societal systems. Projections such rare, in the future climate are, however, subject large inter‐model variations. We show that a substantial portion these differences can be ascribed projected warming uncertainty, robustly reduced by using observed during recent as an observational constraint, implemented either directly constraining projections or conditioning them on constrained projections, verified extensive model‐based cross‐validation. The temperature constraint reduces >40% warming‐induced uncertainty intensification rare daily for is 2°C warmer than preindustrial across most regions. This reduction together validation reliability should permit more confident adaptation planning at regional levels.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Emergent Constraints on Future Projections of Tibetan Plateau Warming in Winter DOI Creative Commons
Shuzhen Hu, Lu Wang, Xiaolong Chen

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(9)

Published: April 25, 2024

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is an area highly sensitive to climate change and warming faster than the global average. TP temperature has a significant impact on local ecological environment downstream weather climate. will undoubtedly warm in future, but extent uncertain. Using Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 multi‐model ensemble, we found that models simulating smaller increases recent decades tend project weaker future. This relationship driven by simulation of snowmelt response greenhouse gas increases, as snow‐related albedo feedback dominates changes both historical future periods. Based two‐step emergent constraint approach, rectified magnitude about 0.3°C compared unconstrained result under medium high emission scenarios, inter‐model uncertainty reduced 60%.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Warm-wetting and/or warm-drying tendency over Xinjiang, China? DOI
Gang Wang, Qiang Zhang, R. Iestyn Woolway

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 133417 - 133417

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Leveraging emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in future compound drought and heatwave events across mainland China DOI

Mengyu Wu,

Dunxian She, Qin Zhang

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 133551 - 133551

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Constrained Projections of Extreme Low Temperatures in Eastern China DOI Creative Commons
B. J. Wang, Ying Sun, Xiaoyan Zhang

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(6)

Published: March 14, 2025

Abstract The latest two generations of climate models (CMIP5 and CMIP6, Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 5 6) show a clear discrepancy in the projected future changes mean temperature. Different methods have been proposed to reduce this difference, however, very limited studies are focused on extreme low temperatures (ELT). Here we propose new method constrain projection ELT by establishing their quasi‐linear relationships with temperature (Tmean) Eastern China. results that Tmean weighting coefficients considering model performance independence can effectively uncertainty range ELT. Before constraint, there substantial differences ranges between CMIP5 CMIP6 models. After considerably reduced, particularly at warmer end, thus showing better consistency CMIP5. Under SSP5‐8.5 scenario, end 21st century (2081–2100), original constrained from 5.1 (3.5–7.9)°C 5.0 (3.5–6.5)°C, decreased 1.4°C. For ELT, decreases ends 1.9°C 1.2°C for annual minima daily minimum (TNn) maximum (TXn), respectively. reliability evaluation shows pseudo‐observations represented large ensemble projections smaller than those unconstrained projections, thereby confirming weighted employed study.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Should we think of observationally constrained multidecade climate projections as predictions? DOI Creative Commons
Tong Li, Francis W. Zwiers, Xuebin Zhang

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(20)

Published: May 16, 2025

Empirical evidence indicates that the range of model-projected future warming can be successfully narrowed by conditioning projected on past observed warming. We demonstrate projections conditioned entire instrumental annual surface temperature record are sufficiently high quality and should considered as long-term predictions rather than merely projections. support this view considering skill predicted 20- 50-year lead changes under Shared Economic Pathway (SSP)1-2.6 SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios in climates different sensitivities. Using climate model simulations, we show adjusting raw multimodel with Kriging for Climate Change (KCC) method eliminates most biases reduces uncertainty irrespective sensitivity being considered. Simpler methods, or using only more recent part record, provide less effective constraints. The high-skill obtained via KCC have a serious place informing global policies.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea DOI Creative Commons

Yifeng Cheng,

Lu Wang, Xiaolong Chen

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(21)

Published: Nov. 4, 2024

Abstract The summer monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea signals beginning Asian monsoon, critical for local fisheries, agriculture livelihoods, so communities are concerned about its potential changes under global warming. Previous projections have suggested a delay, but extent this delay remains uncertain, undermining reliability projections. Here, we show significant correlation between projected shift in Bengal/South present‐day sea surface temperature (SST) simulation western Pacific (WP). This emergent relationship arises from spread precipitation response western‐central to WP SST, as more induces stronger tropical upper‐tropospheric warming, increasing westerly vertical shear near Asia, facilitating delay. rectified indicate that delayed is almost halved compared raw projections, intermodel uncertainty reduced by 30%.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Emergent constraints on the future East Asian winter surface air temperature changes DOI Creative Commons
Anqi Liu, Daokai Xue, Xiaolong Chen

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(6), P. 064050 - 064050

Published: May 13, 2024

Abstract In East Asia, the climate variability in boreal winter is dominated by Asian monsoon, one of most energetic monsoon systems that can lead to disasters. The key variable, surface air temperature (SAT), has significantly changed over past century and substantially impacted agriculture, ecosystems, economics, public health. However, its projections are limited considerable uncertainties. Here, we identify first leading mode explains almost 29.6% inter-model spread future SAT change. Our research delves into evolution present-day biases under scenarios their consequential impact on SAT. Models with stronger western currents’ heat transport North Pacific exhibit a warmer at mid-latitudes during historical periods. Additionally, these models consistently demonstrate currents future, contributing amplified warming Pacific, thereby Eurasia via weakened trough subtropical jet through barotropic responses warm Pacific. Incorporating observational sea constraints reduces uncertainties 9.40%, revealing more reliable change pattern end 21st century.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Causes of Increased Compound Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events in the Arid Region of Northwest China from 1961 to 2100 DOI Creative Commons

Huihui Niu,

Weijun Sun, Baojuan Huai

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(17), P. 3111 - 3111

Published: Aug. 23, 2024

Compound extreme events pose more grave threats to human health, the natural environment, and socioeconomic systems than do individual events. However, drivers spatiotemporal change characteristics of compound under climate transition remain poorly understood, especially in arid region Northwest China. This study examined driving mechanisms temperature precipitation China based on data from 86 national meteorological stations 11 models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6. The results indicated that (1) frequency values heat extremity–dry (1.60/10a) extremity–heavy (0.60/10a) increased 1961 2020, showed a faster uptrend after 1990 before. (2) Under four shared pathway scenarios, there is also likelihood an upward trend by end 21 century, SSP585, with probability 1.70/10a 1.00/10a, respectively. (3) A soil moisture deficit leads decreased evaporation sensible reduction soil–atmosphere exchange; non-adiabatic heating process higher hot days. land–air interaction feedback mechanism significant driver (4) In region, warmer surpasses wetter trend, contributing specific humidity, vapor pressure may lead increasing precipitation, consequently These provide new insights for understanding events, order cope their risks.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Constraining future surface air temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau DOI Creative Commons
Jianyu Wang, Panmao Zhai, Baiquan Zhou

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(8), P. 084051 - 084051

Published: July 23, 2024

Abstract The rapid warming of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades has led to severe consequences, including melting glaciers and snow cover, which further accelerates warming. Accurately projecting magnitude future is crucial for effective climate change adaptation. However, projection temperature model dependent. In this study, we demonstrate a significant correlation between historical inter-model trend change, suggesting relationship could be used calibrate best estimate projections reduce uncertainty by observations. For high emission scenario, constraint helps narrow down range annual summer on western TP up 2 °C 4 °C, respectively, end century. most substantial calibrated increase winter followed autumn with an about 1 °C. Discrepancies among different observation datasets expose largest impact constrained compared emergent derived from models periods.

Language: Английский

Citations

0