A Link Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and North Atlantic Subtropical Ocean Heat Content DOI Creative Commons
Jacob M. Steinberg, Stephen M. Griffies, John P. Krasting

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract Using a recently developed 1/12th degree regional ocean model, we establish link between U.S. East Coast sea level variability and offshore upper heat content change. This manifests as cross‐shore mass redistribution driven by an thermosteric response to subsurface warming or cooling. Approximately 50% of simulated monthly interannual coastal variance south Cape Hatteras can be statistically accounted for this mechanism, realized function hypsometry, gyre scale warming, the depth dependence density explains nonstationarity covariance, specifically observed modeled behavior after 2010. Since approximately 2010, elevated rates rise partly explained result shoreward due within North Atlantic subtropical gyre. These results reveal mechanism that connects local broader region identifies influence changes on level. analysis presents framework identifying new regions may susceptible enhanced helps bridge gap quantifying large change anticipating impacts make flooding storm surge more acutely damaging.

Language: Английский

Improved capabilities of global ocean reanalyses for analysing sea level variability near the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coastal U.S. DOI Creative Commons
Xue Feng, Matthew J. Widlansky, Magdalena Balmaseda

et al.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Feb. 22, 2024

Realistic representation of monthly sea level anomalies in coastal regions has been a challenge for global ocean reanalyses. This is especially the case where levels are influenced by western boundary currents such as near U.S. Atlantic Coast and Gulf Mexico. For these regions, most reanalyses compare poorly to observations. Problems include errors data assimilation horizontal resolutions that too coarse simulate energetic like Stream Loop Current System. However, model capabilities advancing with improved higher resolution. Here, we show some current-generation produce skill when compared satellite altimetry observations surface heights. Using tide gauge verification, find highest associated GLORYS12 HYCOM Both systems assimilate have eddy-resolving (1/12°). We found less three other (ACCESS-S2, ORAS5, ORAP6) coarser, though still eddy-permitting, (1/4°). The operational reanalysis from ECMWF (ORAS5) their pilot (ORAP6) provide an interesting comparison because latter assimilates globally more weight, well assimilating over continental shelves. attributes many gauges. also assessed older (CFSR), which lowest likely due its lower resolution (1/2°) lack assimilation. ACCESS-S2 likewise does not altimetry, although much better than CFSR only somewhat ORAS5. Since flooding anomalies, recent development skilful on timescales may be useful understanding physical processes flood risks.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Skill assessment of seasonal forecasts of ocean variables DOI Creative Commons
Magdalena Balmaseda, Ronan McAdam, Simona Masina

et al.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: May 21, 2024

There is growing demand for seasonal forecast products marine applications. The availability of consistent and sufficiently long observational records ocean variables permits the assessment spatial distribution skill from forecasts. Here we use state-of-the-art temporal sea surface temperature (SST), height (SSH) upper 300m heat content (OHC) to quantify skill, up 2 seasons ahead, two operational forecasting systems contributing multi-model Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). This study presents ensemble mean in terms anomaly correlation root square error compares it persistence climatological benchmarks. comparative among sheds light on sources/limits predictability at time scales, as well nature model errors. Beyond these standard verification metrics, also evaluate ability models represent observed long-term trends. Results show that trends contribute Although forecasts capture general, some regional aspects remain challenging. Part errors can be attributed specific initialization, but others, such overestimation warming Eastern Pacific are influenced by error. Skill gains obtained improving trend representation future systems. In meantime, a calibration procedure corrects linear produce substantial gains. results calibrated beat both benchmark almost every location all initial dates lead times. demonstrate value applications highlight importance representing decadal variability level.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Global ocean surface and subsurface temperature forecast skill over subseasonal to seasonal timescales DOI Creative Commons
Grant Smith, Claire M. Spillman

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 74(2)

Published: May 1, 2024

Subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of ocean temperatures, including extreme events such as marine heatwaves, have demonstrated utility in informing operational decision-making by end users and managing climate risk. Verification is critical for effective communication uptake forecast information, together with understanding temperature predictability. The skill surface subsurface from the Bureau Meteorology’s new ACCESS-S2 prediction system are assessed here over an extended 38-year hindcast period, 2 weeks 6 months into future. Forecasts sea (SST), heat content down 300 m (HC300), bottom temperatures on continental shelves, mixed layer depth compared both satellite observations reanalyses globe Australian region, using a variety metrics. demonstrates increased SST its predecessor ACCESS-S1 at subseasonal timescales all variables assessed. Heat particularly high tropics but reduced subtropical regions especially when persistence. Forecast higher austral summer than winter lead times up Western Pacific region. Mixed poorly predicted times, only limited areas around Australia south-west Probability exceedance 90th percentile indicator heatwave conditions, shows adequate SST, HC300 near shelf shorter times. This work will underpin future development service, which provide early warning these thus valuable preparation windows stakeholders.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Assessment of water levels from 43 years of NOAA’s Coastal Ocean Reanalysis (CORA) for the Gulf of Mexico and East Coasts DOI Creative Commons
Linta Rose, Matthew J. Widlansky, Xue Feng

et al.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: June 3, 2024

Coastal water level information is crucial for understanding flood occurrences and changing risks. Here, we validate the preliminary version (0.9) of NOAA’s Ocean Reanalysis (CORA), which a 43-year reanalysis (1979–2021) hourly coastal levels Gulf Mexico Atlantic (i.e., East Coast region, or GEC). CORA-GEC v0.9 was conducted by Renaissance Computing Institute using coupled ADCIRC+SWAN circulation wave model. The model uses an unstructured mesh nodes with varying spatial resolution that averages 400 m near coast much coarser in open ocean. Water variations associated tides meteorological forcing are explicitly modeled, while lower-frequency included dynamically assimilating observations from National Level Observation Network. We compare CORA to were either assimilated not, find generally performs better than state-of-the-art global ocean (GLORYS12) capturing variability on monthly, seasonal, interannual timescales as well long-term trend. non-tidal residuals also shown be resolved when compared observations. Lastly, present case study extreme inundations around Miami, Florida demonstrate application studying Our assessment suggests provides valuable flooding occurrence 1979–2021 areas experiencing changes across multiple time scales. potentially can enhance risk along parts U.S. do not have historical

Language: Английский

Citations

0
A Link Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and North Atlantic Subtropical Ocean Heat Content DOI Creative Commons
Jacob M. Steinberg, Stephen M. Griffies, John P. Krasting

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract Using a recently developed 1/12th degree regional ocean model, we establish link between U.S. East Coast sea level variability and offshore upper heat content change. This manifests as cross‐shore mass redistribution driven by an thermosteric response to subsurface warming or cooling. Approximately 50% of simulated monthly interannual coastal variance south Cape Hatteras can be statistically accounted for this mechanism, realized function hypsometry, gyre scale warming, the depth dependence density explains nonstationarity covariance, specifically observed modeled behavior after 2010. Since approximately 2010, elevated rates rise partly explained result shoreward due within North Atlantic subtropical gyre. These results reveal mechanism that connects local broader region identifies influence changes on level. analysis presents framework identifying new regions may susceptible enhanced helps bridge gap quantifying large change anticipating impacts make flooding storm surge more acutely damaging.

Language: Английский

Citations

0