Prediction of future Alaskan lake methane emissions using a small-lake model coupled to a regional climate model DOI

Daniela Hurtado Caicedo,

Leon Boegman, Hilmar Hofmann

et al.

Inland Waters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1 - 53

Published: Feb. 3, 2025

Methane emissions from lakes will increase with climate warming. However, these are not accounted for in the land surface schemes of Global Climate Models (GCMs). Because projections depend on future atmospheric CH4 concentrations, positive feedback loop between and warming is simulated. To address this issue, our objective was to develop a modelling approach where an arctic-lake emission model forced directly GCM output (no downscaling) formulated parameters that generally available within framework. This enable lake-model coupling. The hindcast 1976-2005 forecast 2071-2100. Using observed meteorological forcing, hindcasts had cold bias (-0.15 -0.63 °C) root-mean-square error (RMSE) 0.38 0.90 °C, relative observations. GCM-forced warm (+0.96 +3.13°C) RMSE 1.03 3.50 °C. Our diffusion parameterization transferable four Alaskan lakes, after local adjustment wind drag, but different ebullition parameterizations were required two deeper versus shallower lakes. Under three scenarios, we simulated lake-bottom water by up 2.24°C, increasing flux 38-129%. limited availability data renders results poorly validated. Therefore, should be considered as proof-of-concept pathway toward direct coupling lake-models GCMs. Rigorous validation would require additional timeseries observations areal free-surface diffusive ebullitive fluxes

Language: Английский

Drivers of persistent changes in the global methane cycle under aggressive mitigation action DOI Creative Commons
Gerd Folberth, Chris Jones, Fiona M. O’Connor

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: April 5, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2019 DOI Creative Commons
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath

et al.

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 1197 - 1268

Published: March 21, 2023

Abstract. Knowledge of the spatial distribution fluxes greenhouse gases (GHGs) and their temporal variability as well flux attribution to natural anthropogenic processes is essential monitoring progress in mitigating emissions under Paris Agreement inform its global stocktake. This study provides a consolidated synthesis CH4 N2O using bottom-up (BU) top-down (TD) approaches for European Union UK (EU27 + UK) updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven sector results inverse modeling estimates, it extends previous period 1990–2017 2019. BU TD products are compared with national gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported by parties United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 2021. Uncertainties NGHGIs, UNFCCC EU member states, also included synthesis. Variations estimates produced other methods, such atmospheric inversion models or spatially disaggregated datasets (BU), arise from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related parameterization structural differences between models. By comparing NGHGIs approaches, activities key source bias e.g., fluxes, which inversions sensitive prior geospatial emissions. For emissions, over 2015–2019 period, covers sufficiently robust number overlapping most importantly directly comparable, accounting mean 20.5 Tg yr−1 (EDGARv6.0, last year 2018) 18.4 (GAINS, 2015), close NGHGI 17.5±2.1 yr−1. give higher they detect Over same high-resolution regional report 34 Coarser-resolution global-scale result 23 24 inferred GOSAT surface (SURF) network measurements, respectively. magnitude peatland mineral soil JSBACH–HIMMELI model, rivers, lake reservoir geological sources, biomass burning together could account gap 8 both (EDGARv6.0 GAINS) value 0.9 yr−1, data (0.8±55 % yr−1). was 1.4 (excluding TOMCAT, no data). comparison method defined this can be operationalized future annual calculation budgets at EU27 scales. Future comparability will enhanced further steps involving analysis finer resolutions estimation intra-annual timescales, great importance N2O, may help identify contributions divergence posterior and/or inter-annual scale. Even if currently highly uncertain because large spread observations represent independent against totals compared. With anticipated improvements observations, arguably emerge powerful tool verifying CH4, GHGs. referenced figures visualized https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7553800 2023).

Language: Английский

Citations

18
Isotopic composition and emission characteristics of CO2 and CH4 in glacial lakes of the Tibetan Plateau DOI Creative Commons
Fangping Yan,

Zhiheng Du,

Tao Pu

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(9), P. 094025 - 094025

Published: July 28, 2023

Abstract Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 emissions from freshwater ecosystems are predicted to increase under climate warming. However, in glacierized regions differ critically those non-glacierized regions. The potential of CO CH environments the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were only recently recognized. Here, first direct measurement emission fluxes isotopic composition during spring 2022 13 glacial lakes TP revealed that previously overlooked sinks due chemical weathering daily average flux was −5.1 ± 4.4 mmol m −2 d −1 , consumption could reach 38.9 Gg C-CO yr by all TP. This might be larger summer when glaciers experience intensive melting, highlighting importance uptake on global carbon cycle. studied sources with total ranging 3.3 4082.5 795.6 μ mol . large range attributed ebullition found three lakes. Low dissolved organic concentrations oxidation responsible for low diffusive without ebullition. In addition, groundwater input alter probably had a thermogenic source; whereas influenced mainly atmospheric input, as well matter remineralization oxidation. Overall, play an important role cycle budget, more detailed microbial studies needed constrain contributions different pathways production, emissions.

Language: Английский

Citations

18
Salinity is an important factor in carbon emissions from an inland lake in arid region DOI

Yuanshan Liao,

Qitao Xiao, Yimin Li

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 906, P. 167721 - 167721

Published: Oct. 11, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

17
Inland water greenhouse gas emissions offset the terrestrial carbon sink in the northern cryosphere DOI Creative Commons
Chunlin Song, Shaoda Liu, Genxu Wang

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(39)

Published: Sept. 27, 2024

Climate-sensitive northern cryosphere inland waters emit greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere, yet their total emissions remain poorly constrained. We present a data-driven synthesis of GHG from considering water body types, zones, and seasonality. find that annual are dominated by carbon dioxide ( 1149.2 1004.8 1307.5 teragrams CO 2 ; median Q 1 3 ) methane 14.2 10.1 18.5 CH 4 ), while nitrous oxide emission 5.4 − 1.4 12.2 gigagrams N O) is minor. The –equivalent (CO e) 1.5 1.3 1.8 or 2.3 2.8 petagrams e using 100- 20-year global warming potentials, respectively. Rivers 64% more GHGs than lakes, despite having only one-fifth surface area. continuous permafrost zone contributed half emissions. Annual exceed region’s terrestrial net ecosystem exchange, highlighting important role in cryospheric land-aquatic continuum under climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

8
Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis DOI Creative Commons
Qianlai Zhuang, Mingyang Guo, John M. Mélack

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128(3)

Published: March 1, 2023

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost thermokarst lake expansion, increase of emissions could be large. However, impact relative importance various factors related remain uncertain. Based on diverse characteristics incorporated in modeling observational data, we calibrate verify a biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied estimate examine impacts temperature for first last decades 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting 11% total source as estimated based atmospheric inversion. Future projections RCP8.5 scenario suggest 58%–86% growth lakes. Our sensitivity analysis indicates additional substrates thawing may enhance production Arctic. Warming enhanced oxidation water can an effective sink reduce net

Language: Английский

Citations

16
Quantification of Diffusive Methane Emissions from a Large Eutrophic Lake with Satellite Imagery DOI
Hongtao Duan, Qitao Xiao, Tianci Qi

et al.

Environmental Science & Technology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 57(36), P. 13520 - 13529

Published: Aug. 31, 2023

Lakes are major emitters of methane (CH4); however, a longstanding challenge with quantifying the magnitude emissions remains as result large spatial and temporal variability. This study was designed to address issue using satellite remote sensing advantages coverage resolution. Using Aqua/MODIS imagery (2003–2020) in situ measured data (2011–2017) eutrophic Lake Taihu, we compared performance eight machine learning models predict diffusive CH4 found that random forest (RF) model achieved best fitting accuracy (R2 = 0.65 mean relative error 21%). On basis input variables (chlorophyll a, water surface temperature, diffuse attenuation coefficient, photosynthetically active radiation), assessed how why they help RF model. Overall, these mechanistically controlled emissions, leading capturing well variability from lake. Additionally, climate warming associated algal blooms boosted long-term increase via reconstructing historical daily time series emissions. demonstrates great potential satellites map lake by providing spatiotemporal continuous data, new timely insights into accurately understanding aquatic greenhouse gas

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Plant-mediated CH4 exchange in wetlands: A review of mechanisms and measurement methods with implications for modelling DOI Creative Commons
Mengyu Ge, Aino Korrensalo, Raija Laiho

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 914, P. 169662 - 169662

Published: Dec. 28, 2023

Plant-mediated CH

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Drainage ditches are year‐round greenhouse gas hotlines in temperate peat landscapes DOI Creative Commons
Lisanne Hendriks, Stefan Weideveld, Christian Fritz

et al.

Freshwater Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 69(1), P. 143 - 156

Published: Nov. 15, 2023

Abstract Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from drained peatlands have been studied extensively. Considerably less attention has paid to the ditches used drain peatlands. High within‐ditch GHG production and lateral inflow of GHGs may lead emitting considerable amounts on landscape scale. We quantified annual ebullitive diffusive methane (CH 4 ), carbon dioxide (CO 2 nitrous oxide (N O) in 10 drainage intensively temperate for dairy farming, The Netherlands. Additionally, we assessed water sediment quality determine proxies via two emission pathways. mean varied between 3.57 60.1 g CO ‐eq. m −2 day −1 (based a global warming potential over 100‐year timeframe), where contributed average 43% (ranging 1.9 22.0 ) CH 16% (0.1–16.5 total emission. Ebullition made up nearly half (40%, 1.3–40.9 ). N O were mostly low. higher winter months, while ebullition was during spring summer. Diffusive did not show seasonal pattern. factor, estimate per unit area (EF), 2144 kg ha year , which is times than tier 1 EF reported by IPCC (with underrepresented data), underlining high variability ditch emissions. Ditch also surrounding indicating that can be important scale should considered included national greenhouse reporting.

Language: Английский

Citations

13
Hydrogenotrophic pathway dominates methanogenesis along the river-estuary continuum of the Yangtze River DOI
Biao Li, Hongwei Wang,

Anxing Lai

et al.

Water Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 240, P. 120096 - 120096

Published: May 20, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

11