Climate change and future water availability in the United States

USGS professional paper, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Comprehensive assessment of baseflow responses to long-term meteorological droughts across the United States

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 626, P. 130256 - 130256

Published: Sept. 26, 2023

Baseflow is a critical component of streamflow, as it maintains flow during meteorological drought. However, our understanding baseflow response to droughts limited. In this study, we presented flexible approach for detecting precipitation and their corresponding recovery. Using framework, analyzed data from 358 anthropogenically unaffected catchments characterize the recovery properties across United States. Results showed that were more severe than droughts, with duration ranging between 9 - 104 months. There delayed responses showing longer-lasting effects up 41 months after end droughts. Our analysis also revealed drought controlled by climate hydrologic catchment, whereas primarily depends on post-drought conditions. Furthermore, aridity index can differentiate spatial patterns Decadal changes in have become prolonged due part rise temperature highlighting impacts change mild temperate zone. Overall, study provides comprehensive insights into detection its underscores importance these processes sustainable water resource management.

Language: Английский

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James Buttle Review: The Characteristics of Baseflow Resilience Across Diverse Ecohydrological Terrains

Hydrological Processes, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 39(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

ABSTRACT The dynamic storage of aquifers is the portion groundwater that can potentially drain to any given point along a stream create baseflow. Baseflow typically occurs year‐round in perennial streams, though characteristics and stability are often most important instream processes during extended dry periods (without precipitation snowmelt) when runoff quickflows minimised. term ‘baseflow resilience’ defined for this review as tendency baseflow streams maintain consistent volume water quality year while under stress from climate variability extremes, with anthropogenic stressors such withdrawals, land use change, degradation. ‘Baseflow has, part, user‐defined meaning spanning supply variables primary interest. Watershed directly impact resilience produce non‐intuitive feedbacks enhance some attributes simultaneously impairing others. For example, permeable corridor geology creates strong stream‐groundwater hydrologic connectivity, yet fast drainage via preferential high‐permeability flowpaths lead streamflow not being sustained periods. Also, shallow sources generally more immediately vulnerable extreme events, warming, salinization, transpiration, drought, compared deeper groundwater. Yet drought influenced by lag years, contaminant legacies may propagate through deep receiving waters decades centuries. Finally, irrigation withdrawals intercept would have drained application leach contaminants soil zone unnaturally raising tables, return flows sustain groundwater‐dependent habitats semiarid areas. This covers concept context summarises common hydrogeological controls on, multiscale of, storage. Further, we present several quantitative metrics assess range using both broadly available boutique data types, subset which demonstrated Delaware River Basin, USA.

Language: Английский

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Non‐Floodplain Wetlands Are Carbon‐Storage Powerhouses Across the United States

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract Understanding wetland carbon stores and dynamics are critical to managing global flux. Non‐floodplain wetlands (NFWs) hydrologically dynamic globally prevalent inland distal fluvial flowpaths, lacustrine‐fringing areas, geomorphic floodplains; >50% the world's remaining have been reported as NFWs. Quantifying NFW represents a substantive carbon‐budget gap. We analyze conterminous‐US (CONUS) field‐based data collected from nearly 2000 sites sampled by National Wetlands Condition Assessment (NWCA) representing ∼38 Mha CONUS wetlands, asking: What is mean soil organic density total storage in different hydrogeomorphically classified types? To what extent does NFWs differ other How vary between altered intact NFWs? find that relative types, carbon‐storing powerhouses, containing approximately 1.5x per ha than types sampled. CONUS‐wide, store more across every depth increment: ∼2.0x types. Further, condition affects dynamics: least impaired had 1.6x found intermediately disturbed 1.8x of most‐disturbed These NWCA data, plus waning societal protections, suggests releases destruction landscapes likely increase—perhaps markedly—in coming years (e.g., through hydrology affecting atmospheric release NFW‐stored well dissolved export).

Language: Английский

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Generative Adversarial Network for Real‐Time Flash Drought Monitoring: A Deep Learning Study

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 60(5)

Published: May 1, 2024

Abstract Droughts are among the most devastating natural hazards, occurring in all regions with different climate conditions. The impacts of droughts result significant damages annually around world. While drought is generally described as a slow‐developing hazardous event, rapidly developing type drought, so‐called flash has been revealed by recent studies. rapid onset and strong intensity require accurate real‐time monitoring. Addressing this issue, Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) developed study to monitor over Contiguous United States (CONUS). GAN contains two models: (a) discriminator (b) generator. architecture employs Markovian discriminator, which emphasizes spatial dependencies, modified U‐Net generator, tuned for optimal performance. To determine best loss function four networks functions, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), adversarial loss, combination Square (MSE), MAE. Utilizing daily datasets collected from NLDAS‐2 Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) maps, network trained SSI Comparative assessments reveal proposed GAN's superior ability replicate values Naïve models. Evaluation metrics further underscore that successfully identifies both fine‐ coarse‐scale patterns abrupt changes temporal important identification.

Language: Английский

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The challenge of closing the climate adaptation gap for water supply utilities

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: June 29, 2024

Abstract Many drinking water utilities face immense challenges in supplying sustainable, drought-resilient services to households. Here we propose a quantified framework perform drought risk analysis on ~5600 potable supply and evaluate the benefit of adaptation actions. We identify global hotspots present-day mid-century under future scenarios climate change demand growth (namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). estimate mean rate unsustainable or disrupted utility at 15% (interquartile range, 0–26%) project increase between 30–45% scenarios. Implementing most cost-effective action identified per would mitigate additional by 75–80%. However, implementing subset options that generate sufficient tariff revenue provide benefit-cost ratio is greater than 1 only achieve 5–20% this benefit. The results underline challenge attracting financing required close gap for utilities.

Language: Английский

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How low can you go? Widespread challenges in measuring low stream discharge and a path forward

Limnology and Oceanography Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 8(6), P. 804 - 811

Published: Sept. 30, 2023

Low flows pose unique challenges for accurately quantifying streamflow. Current field methods are not optimized to measure these conditions, which in turn, limits research and management. In this essay, we argue that the lack of measuring low streamflow is a fundamental challenge must be addressed ensure sustainable water management now into future, particularly as climate change shifts more streams increasingly frequent flows. We demonstrate pervasive flows, present decision support tool (DST) navigating best practices highlight important method developmental needs. Water resource facing mounting associated with scarcity, including interactive effects changing increased demand (Craig et al. 2017). Climate increasing drought severity many regions (Cook 2020), while limited supplies depletes resources (de Graaf 2019). Combined, stressors result lower variable rivers (Zipper 2021), arid (Hammond 2021). Despite posed by low-flow majority (e.g., time, funding) monitoring have historically focused on high-water concerns, such ensuring navigation predicting floods (Vörösmarty 2001; Ruhi 2018), larger, perennially-flowing systems (Krabbenhoft 2022). Low-flow conditions (Mauger define or little downstream surface flow caused small volumes very velocities (i.e., slackwater), prevalent thus necessitate greater focus quantification approaches. Streamflow underlying physical template structuring biotic abiotic processes, biogeochemical cycling, ecological communities river systems; thus, inaccurate measurements can propagate hinder diverse analyses requiring accurate data, ranging from characterization 2022), environmental allocations (Neachell Petts 2019), function assessments (Leigh Datry 2017), species conservation plans (Lopez forecasting (Forzieri 2014). posit measurement techniques leaves networks ill-equipped inform management, future. Our objectives to: (1) widespread across an existing network United States, (2) discuss limitations current (3) DST choosing among methods, (4) methodological developments needed improve monitoring. Such progress prerequisite understanding how will respond human demands, thereby supporting policy actions seeking avoid minimize impacts. Point essential short- long-term studies monitoring, made using different (Turnipseed Sauer 2010). If conducted over range discrete used develop rating curve relates stage discharge, allowing long-term, continuous discharge via sensors our analysis discussion point streamflow, but emphasize approaches implications accuracy longer-term development. To quantify prevalence substandard measurements, examined manual 8008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gages continental States GAGES II dataset (Falcone 2011), sites either 20+ years since 1950 were operational 2009 (Appendix S1). For each measurement, collected quality code assigned USGS hydrographers immediately after making measurement: "Poor" when uncertainty estimated above 8%, "fair" less than good 5%, excellent 2% These codes qualitative estimating individual based suitability channel cross-section, state, other gage, identified minimum value "good" calculated percent gage's daily record below threshold. results overly sensitive threshold, also compared percentage two additional thresholds: corresponding average thresholds (see Table S1 details), obtained comparable results. The "minimum good" metric provides conservative estimate duration high site; it only considers related does account stemming conditions. interrogated because represents standard investigators use benchmark, provided large relating quality/uncertainty. performed all R version 4.2.1 (R Core Team 2022) data National Information System DataRetrieval Package (De Cicco Across network, records was 8.4%, indicating overall measurements. However, found 393 (~ 5.5%) had at least 50% value, 68 95% threshold (Fig. 1A). Sites widely distributed climatic zones, land uses, hydrologic settings, although greatest density concentrated southwestern where issues linked scarcity (Brown provide example difficulties gage Kings Creek near Manhattan KS (USGS Gage 06879650), well-studied, grassland stream long (1979–present). Only 73 238 31%) considered "excellent" 1B). relatively incidence resulted 58.6% (from 1980 2021) being lowest proportion given year 2.5% 100%. This underscores even site, relative importance vary year-to-year, impact during dry 1C). Furthermore, uncertainties may subsequent estimates nutrient export, lead some annual load much certain others. Systems flashy face highly uncertain end curve, leading sources uncertainty. While sensitivity propagation beyond scope paper, highlights areas poorly suited capture Three general categories comprise toolbox available most practitioners. include: velocity-area methods; tracer-based salt dye; known streambed geometry flume weir) capturing constriction (WMO Most tend unusable under (Hamilton 2008) three reasons: and/or shallow depths 2A,B), mobile streambeds irregular channels 2D,E), proportions subsurface 2C–E). Many transition visible slow imperceptible movement water, sometimes spatially discontinuous pooled. poor tracer mixing recovery dilution gaging 2A). High width-to-depth ratios wide water) inability fully submerge velocimeters 2E). bed elevations rocks boulders) emergent vegetation further reduce velocity render them impossible 2D). Finally, surface-water therefore directly estimates, flow. relevant often exhibit hyporheic problems mutually exclusive; indeed, multiple arise leaving practitioners unsure about considerable Given challenges, reflects collective experience working systems, describes approach applying complicating factors dominate 3). aim offer guidance systematic way apply consistent complex systems. assumes chosen location site there no better within reasonable distance upstream downstream) what should avoided selection. intended data-driven study optimal rather offering informed opinions work specific contexts experts who frequently attempt non-ideal compiling DST, development prioritized, hope catalyzes advances community. initial bifurcation separates whether visibly flowing material leaves) observed moving downstream. movement, fewer options exist visible, prompts series questions regarding cross-section depth help identify suitable their acknowledge pathways nodes equally likely encountered. example, few locations natural points bucket 2F), though appears twice terminate "no methods." experience, (numbering dozens, examples Fig. 2) fall characterized method" part year, us unable fluxes limiting like flux estimates. possible recommended suboptimal error. Selecting requires degree precision consider trade-offs between costs. studies, parameters easier measure—like depth, wetted width/area, approximate state—may sufficient (Jaeger 2023). contrast, biogeochemistry key calculating loads (Gómez-Gener require aquatic habitat. Other trade-offs, personnel costs, frequency, time conduct outweigh scientific considerations 3. At take hours days, minutes hour required moderate addition, non-optimal breakthrough curves incomplete Portable flumes/weirs faster implement modifying channel, manually creating berms concentrate through 2C), reasons. recommendations modifications accommodate variations application gaging; suggestions situations desirable, those S1. rivers, communities. Discharge assess connectivity tributaries solutes network. Time inputs models ecosystem desired output identifying driving responses anthropogenic change. All applications full variability. universal answer question "what error acceptable flows," need clear. Although absolute changes 0.01 0.02 m3/s), system (100%). Small substantial consequences habitat extent (Rolls 2012). Detection trends hampered imprecise cause vulnerable go unquantified (Whitfield Hendrata 2006). Environmental regulations precise enforcement complicate implementation enforcement. large, difficult-to-measure norm prevent flow-duration minimal purposes. represent smaller component solute they critical hydrological, ecological, dynamics without robust addition providing systematically deciding employ determining 3) assessment. cases, modification optimization entirely new developed refined, as: slackwater pools 2A); wide, shallow, irregular, threaded 2E), opportunity modification; reaches dense vegetation; wind strongly affects velocities. commonly freshwaters share similarities coastal opening up potential transfer to/from hydrology Birgand There promising recent technological micro (Osorno time-lapse imagery trail cameras videos (Birgand 2022; Chapman Dolcetti radar altimetry (Bandini presence/absence (Chapin 2014;). Emerging tools spatiotemporal variation state assessment presence absence done advance presence/absence, unresolved. settings modeling mathematical relationship option (Gao suggest effort urgently needed, numerous viable Methods accelerates, variability around world. manage future managers achieve this, flexibility extreme Without improvements, able sustain predict continuing trajectories Understanding managing integrity, promoting quality, safeguarding access. first step high-quality Data Supplementary Information. Please note: publisher responsible content functionality any information supplied authors. Any queries (other missing content) directed author article. supported NSF-DEB Grant #1754389 Dry Rivers Research Coordination Network NSF-IOA #2019603 Aquatic Intermittency Microbiomes Streams (AIMS) project. would thank members AIMS team thoughtful conversations contributions helped ideas explored manuscript.

Language: Английский

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The effects of drought on biodiversity in UK river ecosystems: Drying rivers in a wet country

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(5)

Published: July 9, 2024

Abstract Climate change is interacting with water resource pressures to alter the frequency, severity and spatial extent of drought, which can thus no longer be considered a purely natural hazard. Although particularly severe ecological impacts drought have occurred in drylands, its effects on temperate ecosystems, including rivers, are also considerable. Extensive research spanning diverse range UK rivers offers an opportunity place past context intensifying climate examine likely future typically cool, wet country. Here, manifests instream as deficits surface water, modified flow velocities, and—increasingly—partial or complete drying previously perennial naturally non‐perennial reaches. As result, causes declines taxonomic functional biodiversity freshwater communities microorganisms, algae, plants, invertebrates fish, altering processes associated benefits people. recovered quickly after previous droughts, increase extremity may compromise recovery following events. The risk droughts that push ecosystems beyond thresholds persistent, species‐poor, functionally simplified states increasing. Research monitoring needed enable timely identification approaching such inform interventions pull these back from brink. Management actions support regimes promote diversify habitats, refuges, crucial within river they adapt changing world. This article categorized under: Water Life > Nature Freshwater Ecosystems Stresses Pressures Conservation, Management, Awareness

Language: Английский

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Agricultural tile drains increase the susceptibility of streams to longer and more intense streamflow droughts

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(10), P. 104071 - 104071

Published: Sept. 6, 2024

Abstract Streamflow droughts are receiving increased attention worldwide due to their impact on the environment and economy. One region of concern is Midwestern United States, whose agricultural productivity depends subsurface pipes known as tile drains improve trafficability soil conditions for crop growth. Tile accomplish this by rapidly transporting surplus moisture shallow groundwater from fields, resulting in reduced watershed storage. However, no work has previously examined connection between drainage streamflow drought. Here, we pose question: does extent watershed-level lead an susceptibly magnitude droughts? To answer this, use daily data 122 watersheds throughout States quantify drought duration, frequency, intensity. Using spatial multiple regression models, find that generates statistically significant ( p < 0.05) increases duration intensity while significantly reducing frequency. The effect characteristics similar water table depth precipitation seasonality, both which influence droughts. Furthermore, projected changes regional will likely drive installation additional drainage. We each 10% increase tile-drained area, 0.03 d 12%, respectively, frequency decreases 0.10 events/year. Such may more severe have a detrimental socio-environmental usage streams Midwest.

Language: Английский

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More flow upstream and less flow downstream: The changing form and function of global rivers

Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 386(6727), P. 1305 - 1311

Published: Dec. 12, 2024

We mapped daily streamflow from 1984 to 2018 in approximately 2.9 million rivers assess recent changes global river systems. found that outlets were dominated by significant decreases flow, whereas headwaters 1.7 times more likely have significantly increased flow than decreased. These result a upstream shift experienced about 29% of the land surface. most smallest steams our study: increases erosion potential (approximately 5% increase stream power), flood frequency 42% 100-year floods), and nutrient dynamics (altered seasonal regimes). revealed these using "detail at scale" mapping millions individual rivers. Widely adopting this approach could reveal other hydrosphere.

Language: Английский

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