Nansen and Amundsen basins: Gradients of physico-chemical properties and biota composition with implications for future resource management of the central Arctic Ocean DOI Creative Commons
Doreen Kohlbach, Agneta Fransson,

Martí Amargant-Arumí

et al.

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

The projected transition of the central Arctic Ocean (CAO) into a warmer, seasonally ice-free ocean requires more knowledge this environment to predict changes in structure and dynamics its ecosystems. We aimed compare state underlying processes Nansen Basin Amundsen ecosystems observed August–September 2021 assess impacts Atlantic Water inflow fresher Transpolar Drift waters, respectively, on these basins differed features sea ice, hydrography, chemical biological compositions. near-slope open water western showed clear fingerprint warm, saline Water, with larger vertical turbulent fluxes facilitating nutrient transport across pycnocline supporting standing stocks bacteria, protists, zooplankton. Pelagic primary production microbial faunal decreased northward Basin, likely due lower concentrations, stronger stratification, reduced light through continuous thicker ice snow cover possibly also impacted by declining levels. signals included salinity, higher silicate concentrations surface waters. Similarities earlier observations increase small-sized algae from overall low abundances CAO, suggesting that overarching patterns remained unchanged over past decades. Examples species range extensions notable taxon absences relative studies, however, could be borealization sea-ice conditions, respectively. Higher density ecosystem sampling consistent time series are recommended confirm such conclusions. distinct basin differences call for regional approach future management CAO. especially caution against using area strong southern as representative entire basin, let alone or

Language: Английский

Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble To Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties DOI Open Access
Kieran Murphy, Denisse Fierro‐Arcos, Tyler Rohr

et al.

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 15, 2024

Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected in total consumer biomass from Fisheries Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain for Ocean, indicating need a region-specific ensemble. A large source uncertainty originates Earth system models (ESMs) used to force FishMIP models, particularly lower trophic level sea ice coverage. To build confidence regional MEMs as ecosystem-based tools changing climate that better account uncertainty, we propose development Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing 2.0 intercomparison initiative. One challenges hampering progress is achieving balance standardised inputs with relevance. As first step, design SOMEME simulation protocol, builds on extends existing framework, stages include: detailed skill forcing variables regions, extension fishing data include whaling, new simulations assess ecological links sea-ice processes candidate MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments urgently needed impacts

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 DOI Creative Commons
Julia L. Blanchard, Camilla Novaglio, Olivier Maury

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes risks to the services they provide people. The Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established develop model ensembles projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant Inter‐Sectoral Impact (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly coastal shelf seas where most world's occur. Furthermore, previous impact been limited by a lack global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution processes, uneven capabilities across community dynamically fisheries. These features are needed evaluate how reliably ensemble captures states ‐ crucial step building confidence projections. To address these issues, we developed 2.0 comprising two‐track framework for: (a) evaluation attribution (b) socioeconomic scenario Key advances include forcing, which oceanographic not previously resolved, forcing test effects systematically models. toward detection changing enhanced relevance through increased Our results will help elucidate pathways achieving sustainable development goals.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties DOI Creative Commons
Kieran Murphy, Denisse Fierro‐Arcos, Tyler Rohr

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

Abstract Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected in total consumer biomass from Fisheries Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain for Ocean, indicating need a region‐specific ensemble. A large source uncertainty originates Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly lower trophic level sea‐ice coverage. To build confidence regional MEMs as ecosystem‐based tools changing climate that better account uncertainty, we propose development Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing 2.0 intercomparison initiative. One challenges hampering progress is achieving balance standardised inputs with relevance. As first step, design SOMEME simulation protocol, builds on extends existing framework, stages include: detailed skill forcing variables regions, extension fishing data include whaling, new simulations assess ecological links processes candidate MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments urgently needed impacts

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Nansen and Amundsen basins: Gradients of physico-chemical properties and biota composition with implications for future resource management of the central Arctic Ocean DOI Creative Commons
Doreen Kohlbach, Agneta Fransson,

Martí Amargant-Arumí

et al.

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

The projected transition of the central Arctic Ocean (CAO) into a warmer, seasonally ice-free ocean requires more knowledge this environment to predict changes in structure and dynamics its ecosystems. We aimed compare state underlying processes Nansen Basin Amundsen ecosystems observed August–September 2021 assess impacts Atlantic Water inflow fresher Transpolar Drift waters, respectively, on these basins differed features sea ice, hydrography, chemical biological compositions. near-slope open water western showed clear fingerprint warm, saline Water, with larger vertical turbulent fluxes facilitating nutrient transport across pycnocline supporting standing stocks bacteria, protists, zooplankton. Pelagic primary production microbial faunal decreased northward Basin, likely due lower concentrations, stronger stratification, reduced light through continuous thicker ice snow cover possibly also impacted by declining levels. signals included salinity, higher silicate concentrations surface waters. Similarities earlier observations increase small-sized algae from overall low abundances CAO, suggesting that overarching patterns remained unchanged over past decades. Examples species range extensions notable taxon absences relative studies, however, could be borealization sea-ice conditions, respectively. Higher density ecosystem sampling consistent time series are recommended confirm such conclusions. distinct basin differences call for regional approach future management CAO. especially caution against using area strong southern as representative entire basin, let alone or

Language: Английский

Citations

0