Observed Changes and Projected Risks of Hot–Dry/Hot–Wet Compound Events in China DOI Creative Commons

Yifan Zou,

Xiaomeng Song

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(22), P. 4208 - 4208

Published: Nov. 12, 2024

Compound extreme events can cause serious impacts on both the natural environment and human beings. This work aimed to explore changes in compound drought–heatwave heatwave–extreme precipitation (i.e., CDHEs CHPEs) across China using daily-scale gauge-based meteorological observations, examine their future projections potential risks Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results show following: (1) frequencies of CHPEs showed a significant increasing trend from 1961 2020, with contrasting trends between first half second period decrease 1990 an increase 1991 2020). Similar were observed for four intensity levels mild, moderate, severe, extreme) CHPEs. (2) All three SSP will trends, especially higher emission scenarios. Moreover, projected intensities gradually increase, levels. (3) exposure population (POP) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) be concentrated mainly China’s coastal areas. GDP exposures reach highest values SSP5-8.5, while POP peak SSP2-4.5 respectively. Our findings offer scientific technological support actively mitigate climate change risks.

Language: Английский

The risk of concurrent heatwaves and extreme sea levels along the global coastline is increasing DOI Creative Commons
Mo Zhou, Shuo Wang

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: April 11, 2024

Abstract Concurrent heatwaves and extreme sea levels could pose a serious threat to coastal communities under climate change; however, the spatiotemporal characteristics dynamic evolution of them along global coastline remain poorly understood. Here, we use reanalysis datasets model projections assess historical future changes in concurrent levels. We find that 87.73% coastlines experienced such extremes during 1979–2017. There is an average increase 3.72 days occurrence 1998–2017 compared 1979–1998. A one-percentile heatwave intensity associated with 2.07% likelihood extremes. Global are projected experience 38 each year 2025–2049 highest emission scenario. The weakening geopotential height surface low-pressure system may serve as important indicator for heatwaves.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Global evidence of rapid flash drought recovery by extreme precipitation DOI Creative Commons
Shanti Shwarup Mahto, Vimal Mishra

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(4), P. 044031 - 044031

Published: March 4, 2024

Abstract Flash drought affects agricultural activities and water availability. However, the rate of flash development termination their controlling mechanisms remain mostly unexplored. Using climate reanalysis (ERA5) datasets, we examine recovery rates in seventeen regions across globe during 1981–2020 period. In most global regions, (25.2 percentile/pentad) is faster than its (17.2 percentile/pentad). The tropical sub-tropical humid areas, particularly eastern North America, northern South Asia, Southeast Islands groups, are hotspots rapid rates. have considerably increased recent two decades. Pluvial events (heavy-to-extreme precipitation) associated with soil moisture decreased atmospheric aridity vapor pressure deficit primary driver recovery. Globally, 10 17 showed dominance extreme precipitation recovery, primarily due to an increase frequency precipitation. A fraction droughts terminated by has significantly 1981–2020. Considering frequency, rate, termination, compound risk followed flooding enhanced. abrupt transition from wet conditions makes flood management more challenging, consequences for agriculture resources.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Increasing Synchrony of Extreme Heat and Precipitation Events Under Climate Warming DOI Creative Commons

Yu Tang,

Ming Luo, Sijia Wu

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(8)

Published: April 11, 2025

Abstract Extreme weather events severely impact human and natural systems, their impacts would be exacerbated when occur synchronously. Extensive studies have examined changes in individual under global warming, but the synchrony of multiple remain less understood. Here we quantify extreme heat precipitation over land areas assess how it responds to climate change. We show regional disparities with stronger lower latitudes weaker middle latitudes. Since 1980s, has increased by 34%, especially tropics northern high Climate simulations project an 87% increase 2100 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5–8.5 relative historical level, while low‐emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 SSP2‐4.5) can help mitigate risk synchronous events. Increasing is primarily driven this scaling relationship depends on warming level rather path.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Increasing probability of extreme rainfall preconditioned by humid heatwaves in global coastal megacities DOI Creative Commons
Poulomi Ganguli, Bruno Merz

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: April 16, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change DOI Creative Commons
Fang Pei, Taihua Wang, Dawen Yang

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Jan. 14, 2025

Under climate change, China faces intensifying compound extreme events with serious socio-economic ramifications, yet their future variations remain poorly understood. Here, we estimate historical hotspots and changes of two typical events, i.e., sequential heatwave precipitation (SHP) concurrent drought (CDH) across China, leveraging a bivariate bias correction method to adjust projections from global models. Results show substantial increases in frequency, duration, magnitude for both the durations projected double nationwide. The are more evident under higher emission scenarios, could be largely underestimated if neglecting variable dependence during process. will escalate exposure China's major urban clusters, among which Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao face highest risk. Our findings underscore necessity carbon controls, call adaptive measures mitigate threats induced by rising hazards changing climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Impacts of Land–Atmosphere Coupling on Summer Extreme Hot-Humid Compound Events over Southern Eurasia under Different Sea Surface Temperature Backgrounds DOI
Yajing Qi, Haishan Chen, Siguang Zhu

et al.

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 24, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Escalating wind power shortages during heatwaves DOI Creative Commons
Jiewen You,

F H Yin,

Lu Gao

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: March 28, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Observational Evidence Reveals Compound Humid Heat Stress‐Extreme Rainfall Hotspots in India DOI Creative Commons
Poulomi Ganguli, Bruno Merz

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Abstract Sequential climate hazards, such as “warm and wet” compound extremes, have direct societal implications for highly urbanized regions agricultural production. While typically extreme temperatures rainfall are inversely correlated during the summer, humid heatwaves often lead to atmospheric instability moisture convection, increasing likelihood of precipitation (EP). Little is known about how heatwave characteristics, peak intensity duration, influence EP at a regional scale. Using high‐resolution, sub‐daily station‐based observational records over five decades (1971–2021) across India, we find robust increase in frequency heat‐peak events all seasons. Our sensitivity analysis impact characteristics on subsequent extremes reveals that, with an given >50% sites show magnitude rainfall; conversely, duration intensity, around 67% decline extremes. An asymmetrical shift toward above‐average response heat stress mainly clustered low‐elevation, densely populated coastal areas irrigation‐intensive Indo‐Gangetic Plains.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Higher Exposure of Poorer People to Emerging Weather Whiplash in a Warmer World DOI Creative Commons
Boen Zhang, Shuo Wang, Jakob Zscheischler

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 50(21)

Published: Oct. 27, 2023

Abstract The emergence of abrupt shift from drought to downpour has attracted widespread attention in recent years, with particularly disastrous consequences low‐income regions. However, the spatiotemporal evolution and poverty exposure such drought‐to‐downpour events remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate connection between based on three data products climate models a global scale. We find that increased by 24%–48% poorest 20% world's population 1980 2010. do not appear be occurring more frequently most regions globally, just affecting higher rates frequently, especially African countries. inequality remains under future socioeconomic pathways, nearly fivefold increase for poorer populations. Poverty frequent demands greater support adaptation countries reduce inequality.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Compound Dry and Wet Extremes Lead to an Increased Risk of Rice Yield Loss DOI Creative Commons
Huijiao Chen, Shuo Wang

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 50(24)

Published: Dec. 19, 2023

Abstract Extreme dry and wet events can result in significant crop yield losses. However, the impact of consecutive occurrence extremes on remains unclear. Here, we investigate hotspots compound (CDW) across global rice croplands their impacts yield. We identify a increasing trend frequency CDW during 1981–2016. The risk loss caused by be twice as high from individual extremes. Furthermore, find that face 43% higher due to dry‐to‐wet compared wet‐to‐dry Our findings provide new insights into sustainability production food security hydrological

Language: Английский

Citations

7