Climate,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
12(12), P. 204 - 204
Published: Dec. 2, 2024
The
probability
of
heat
extremes
is
often
estimated
using
the
non-stationary
generalized
extreme
value
distribution
(GEVD)
applied
to
time
series
annual
maximum
temperature.
Here,
this
practice
was
assessed
a
global
sample
temperature
series,
from
reanalysis
(both
at
grid
point
and
region
scale)
as
well
station
observations.
This
assessment
used
forecast
negative
log-likelihood
main
performance
measure,
which
particularly
sensitive
most
waves.
It
found
that
computationally
simpler
normal
outperforms
GEVD
in
providing
probabilistic
year-ahead
forecasts
extremes.
Given
these
findings,
it
suggested
consider
alternatives
for
assessing
risk
heat.
Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
16(1)
Published: March 10, 2025
Abstract
We
see
unprecedented
weather
causing
widespread
impacts
across
the
world.
In
this
perspective,
we
provide
an
overview
of
methods
that
help
anticipate
hazards
can
contribute
to
stop
being
surprised.
then
discuss
disaster
management
and
climate
adaptation
practices,
their
gaps,
how
may
build
resilience.
stimulate
thinking
about
transformative
as
a
foundation
for
long-term
resilience
weather,
supported
by
incremental
through
upgrading
existing
infrastructure,
reactive
short-term
early
action
response.
Because
in
end,
should
take
responsibility
rather
than
surprised
weather.
Abstract
Climate
events
that
break
records
by
large
margins
are
a
threat
to
society
and
ecosystems.
change
is
expected
increase
the
probability
of
such
events,
but
quantifying
these
probabilities
challenging
due
natural
variability
limited
data
availability,
especially
for
observations
very
rare
extremes.
Here
we
estimate
precipitation
shatter
margin
at
least
one
pre-industrial
standard
deviation.
Using
ensemble
climate
simulations
extreme
value
theory,
determine
empirical
analytical
record
shattering
find
they
in
high
agreement.
We
show
that,
particularly
emission
scenarios,
models
project
much
higher
record-shattering
changing
relative
stationary
end
century
almost
all
global
land,
with
strongest
increases
vulnerable
regions
tropics.
demonstrate
increasing
an
essential
driver
near-term
probability,
present
framework
quantifies
influence
combined
trends
mean
on
behaviour
precipitation.
Probability
estimates
warming
world
crucial
inform
risk
assessment
adaptation
policies.
Frontiers in Climate,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
6
Published: March 15, 2024
Methods
for
calculating
return
values
of
extreme
precipitation
and
their
uncertainty
are
compared
using
daily
rates
over
the
Western
U.S.
Southwestern
Canada
from
a
large
ensemble
climate
model
simulations.
The
roles
return-value
estimation
procedures
sample
size
in
evaluated
various
periods.
We
compare
two
different
generalized
value
(GEV)
parameter
techniques,
namely
L-moments
maximum
likelihood
(MLE),
as
well
empirical
techniques.
Even
very
datasets,
confidence
intervals
calculated
GEV
techniques
narrower
than
those
methods.
Furthermore,
more
efficient
result
MLE
at
small
sizes,
but
similar
best
estimates.
It
should
be
noted
that
we
do
not
claim
either
fitting
technique
is
better
calibrated
other
to
estimate
long
period
values.
While
non-stationary
methodology
readily
available
parameters,
it
method.
Comparison
quantification
methods
found
yield
significantly
estimates
sizes
converge
results
increases.
Finally,
practical
recommendations
about
length
simulations
choice
statistical
robustly
statistics
quantify
uncertainty.
Environmental Research Letters,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
19(9), P. 094033 - 094033
Published: Aug. 9, 2024
Abstract
Heat
extremes
have
been
increasing
both
in
frequency
and
intensity
most
land
regions
of
the
world,
this
increase
has
attributed
to
human
activities.
In
last
decade,
many
outstanding
record
shattering
heat
occurred
worldwide,
triggering
fears
a
nonlinear
behaviour
or
an
‘acceleration’
development
conditions,
considering
warming
level
when
event
occurred.
Here
we
show
that
evolution
yearly
temperature
maxima,
with
return
periods
(RPs)
above
10
years,
consistently
shifts
global
temperatures
does
not
significantly
depart
from
recent
years
decades
considered
globally
at
scale
continents.
This
result
is
obtained
by
using
classical
statistical
attribution
technique,
where
assumption
distribution
block-maxima
linearly
tested
across
world
regions.
However,
pace
change
large,
probability
exponentially
rising
nearly
doubling
every
decade
since
1979,
particularly
events
RP
about
10–50
2000.
makes
climate
ago
unrepresentative
today’s
climate.
Our
results
overall
mean
do
expect
like
undergo
changes,
despite
fast
changes.
They
also
assumptions
underlying
techniques
used
studies
are
consistent
trends.
Frontiers in Climate,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
6
Published: Oct. 14, 2024
The
field
of
extreme
event
attribution
(EEA)
has
rapidly
developed
over
the
last
two
decades.
Various
methods
have
been
and
implemented,
physical
modelling
capabilities
generally
improved,
impact
emerged,
assessments
serve
as
a
popular
communication
tool
for
conveying
how
climate
change
is
influencing
weather
events
in
lived
experience.
However,
number
non-trivial
challenges
still
remain
that
must
be
addressed
by
community
to
secure
further
advancement
whilst
ensuring
scientific
rigour
appropriate
use
findings
stakeholders
associated
applications.
As
part
concept
series
commissioned
World
Climate
Research
Programme,
this
article
discusses
contemporary
developments
six
key
domains
relevant
EEA,
provides
recommendations
where
focus
EEA
should
concentrated
coming
decade.
These
are:
(1)
observations
context
EEA;
(2)
definitions;
(3)
statistical
methods;
(4)
(5)
attribution;
(6)
communication.
Broadly,
call
increased
capacity
building,
particularly
more
vulnerable
regions;
guidelines
assessing
suitability
models;
establishing
best-practice
methodologies
on
compound
record-shattering
extremes;
co-ordinated
interdisciplinary
engagement
develop
scaffolding
their
broader
applications;
ongoing
investment
To
address
these
requires
significant
multiple
fields
either
underpin
(e.g.,
monitoring;
modelling)
or
are
closely
related
events;
impacts)
well
working
consistently
with
experts
outside
science
generally.
if
approached
investment,
dedication,
coordination,
tackling
next
decade
will
ensure
robust
analysis,
tangible
benefits
global
community.
