Can climate knowledge enable Warragamba Dam, Sydney, Australia to be used to manage flood risk? DOI Creative Commons
Anjana Devanand, A. J. Pitman, Guido Carvajal

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(12), P. 124044 - 124044

Published: Nov. 8, 2023

Abstract Dams that serve a dual purpose of water supply and flood mitigation operate to maintain defined full level balances the two conflicting requirements. To optimize use available storage space, may be adjusted reflect changing risks future shortages inflows based on known seasonal variations current observations. The Warragamba Dam in eastern Australia is located upstream populated Hawkesbury-Nepean valley which has one largest exposures country. However, operating protocol reservoir does not include provisions reduce dam for mitigation. Large scale climate indicators are influence hydroclimate this region potentially contain useful information inform reservoir, but their utility been studied. Here we explore whether observations large-scale along with antecedent catchment conditions can used estimate probability large into next 3- 6 months, aid management. We find predictors have substantial inflows. differences during opposite predictor phases vary by season range from 30% 70%. Our results indicate considering merit.

Language: Английский

Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events in 34 major global river basins during 1901–2021 DOI

Ziyang Zhu,

Weili Duan, Shan Zou

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 921, P. 170913 - 170913

Published: Feb. 12, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

14
Australian Rainfall Increases During Multi‐Year La Niña DOI Creative Commons

Ashley T. Huang,

Zoe E. Gillett, Andréa S. Taschetto

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(9)

Published: April 29, 2024

Abstract Australia is one of the regions strongly affected by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The recent 2020–2023 La Niña event was marked record‐breaking rainfall and flooding across eastern Australia. continuous wet conditions during triple motivated us to explore impacts single‐year multi‐year ENSO events on Australian using observational data sets. We find that, while there no difference in single or double Niño events, tends increase third year compared first second years. enhanced impact occurs despite strengthening tropical Pacific, suggesting that other processes such as local rainfall‐soil moisture feedback may play a role prolonging effects

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change DOI Creative Commons
Georgina Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(6), P. 1383 - 1401

Published: March 27, 2024

Abstract. In drought-prone Australia, multi-year droughts have detrimental impacts on both the natural environment and human societies. For responsible water management, we need a thorough understanding of full range variability in how this might change warming world. But research into long-term frequency, persistence, severity Australian is limited. This partly due to length observational record, which short relative timescales hydroclimatic hence may not capture possible variability. Using simulations precipitation over past millennium (850–2000), characterise nature meteorological across Australia include particular focus Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), largest agricultural region Australia. We find that simulated 20th century (1900–2000) are within bounds pre-industrial terms drought intensity, severity, frequency. A tendency for last longer southwestern eastern (including MDB) century, compared with period, suggests an emerging anthropogenic influence, consistent projected rainfall changes these regions. Large volcanic eruptions tend promote drought-free intervals MDB. Model suggest future could be much than what was experienced even without any influence. With addition climate change, favours conditions southern reduced cool-season rainfall, it likely will exceed recent historical experience.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Do CMIP6 Models Capture Seasonal and Regional Differences in the Asymmetry of ENSO‐Precipitation Teleconnections? DOI Creative Commons
Aditya Sengupta, Andrew D. King, Josephine R. Brown

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent climate phenomenon affecting precipitation patterns across much of the world. Regional ENSO‐precipitation teleconnections are often asymmetric such that response to Niño stronger or weaker than La Niña. Better understanding asymmetry in can improve predictability extremes during ENSO events. In this study, we assess capability 50 state‐of‐the‐art models and reanalysis against observational data simulating seasonal differences ENSO. The analysis performed 46 sub‐continental scale regions, using composite technique for deriving component response. Significant regional diversity found ENSO, both observations models. Model performance nature higher associated asymmetry. capturing highest austral spring. model biases related inability accurately simulate skewness heavy tailed local distributions Niño3.4 SST distributions. regions outside Pacific Indian Ocean basins, bias variability plays larger role bias. This contributes better fidelity CMIP6 different seasons which critical making skillful projections floods droughts warming climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Asymmetric response of Sri Lanka Northeast Monsoon rainfall to El Niño/La Niña DOI
Pathmarasa Kajakokulan, Agus Santoso, Sen Zhao

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(2)

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Metagenomic insights into taxonomic and functional patterns in shallow coastal and deep subseafloor sediments in the Western Pacific DOI Creative Commons
Jiarui Sun, Miho Hirai, Yoshihiro Takaki

et al.

Microbial Genomics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(3)

Published: March 18, 2025

Marine sediments are vast, underexplored habitats and represent one of the largest carbon deposits on our planet. Microbial communities drive nutrient cycling in these sediments, but full extent their taxonomic metabolic diversity remains to be explored. Here, we analysed shallow coastal deep subseafloor sediment cores from 0.01 nearly 600 metres below seafloor, Western Pacific Region. Applying metagenomics, identified several clusters across all samples, which mainly aligned with depth type. Inferring functional patterns provided insights into possible ecological roles main microbial taxa. These included Chloroflexota , most abundant phylum whereby classes Dehalococcoida Anaerolineae dominated deep-subsurface respectively. Thermoproteota Asgardarchaeota were phyla among Archaea, contributing high relative abundances Archaea reaching over 50% some samples. We recovered high-quality metagenome-assembled genomes for prokaryotic lineages proposed names three phyla, i.e. Tangaroaeota phyl. nov. (former RBG-13-66-14), Ryujiniota UBA6262) Spongiamicota UBA8248). Metabolic capabilities samples ranged aerobic respiration photosynthesis shallowest layers heterotrophic utilization, sulphate reduction methanogenesis deeper anoxic sediments. also taxa potential involved nitrogen sulphur utilization. In summary, this study contributes understanding benthic marine

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review DOI Creative Commons
Chiara Holgate, Georgina Falster, Zoe E. Gillett

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: March 25, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Response of the global ITCZ to different ENSO phases and how the ITCZ determined from the maximum precipitation compares with the surface tropical wind convergence. DOI
Teke S. Ramotubei, Willem A. Landman, Mohau J. Mateyisi

et al.

Environmental Development, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 101210 - 101210

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Links between hail hazard and climate modes of variability across Australia DOI Creative Commons

Quincy F. Tut,

Tim Raupach, Andréa S. Taschetto

et al.

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 11, 2025

Abstract Hailstorms are destructive and dangerous phenomena that can cause large losses, motivating better understanding of their occurrence. As climate modes variability influence temperature moisture hence convective instability, they offer predictive skill for hail conditions. Here, we examine relationships between hail‐prone days across Australia the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Hail‐prone were identified using a proxy applied to European Centre Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data from 1979 2022. day anomalies correlated with strength‐of‐mode indices. Broad areas country's interior show increased during La Niña, negative IOD, positive SAM in spring. The relationship IOD is significant winter Brisbane some extent Sydney, reversing sign summer. Anomalies increase over Western Australia's south Niño Our work highlights potential connections conditions, investigates meteorological factors behind observed correlations, helps us understand annual improve seasonal prediction.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Anthropogenic warming reduces the likelihood of drought-breaking extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia DOI Creative Commons
Chiara Holgate, Acacia Pepler, Irina Rudeva

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 42, P. 100607 - 100607

Published: Sept. 5, 2023

Future climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts in many drought-prone regions world. However, coarsely-resolved sometimes opposing rainfall changes across global models, a lack understanding weather-scale processes that cause begin end, create uncertainties around these future regions. Here, we reveal co-occurrence deep low-pressure system over southeast Australia with an adjacent high-pressure Tasman Sea key dynamic mechanism responsible for extreme drought-breaking Australia. Regional models project decline events by 9% every degree warming, 11.6% per associated rainfall, increasing risk region entering staying drought late 21st century. This critical dynamical context brings confidence duration provides opportunity robustly identify parts world where similar mechanisms may also play role extreme, rainfall.

Language: Английский

Citations

8