Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy DOI Creative Commons
Colin Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 1319 - 1351

Published: Oct. 18, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing integrated assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact has worked together over past few decades to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment thereby support policy. go recommend a number priority research areas for coming decade, timescale that encompasses newly starting activities, as well IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) second UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our impacts, increasing quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris targets – example, overshoot 1.5 or 2 °C warming, before returning levels at some later date. models be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots particular, efficacy mitigation measures, negative CO2 emissions, reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved long-term consequences stabilizing above pre-industrial temperatures also required. run CO2-emission mode more fully represent climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks and, wherever possible, interactively simulate other key phenomena risk rapid during overshoot. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections cover complete range potential responses accurate simulation observed, historical record remains fundamental requirement does metrics, effective sensitivity transient response cumulative carbon emissions. For adaptation, demand guidance changes extremes modes variability develop within. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution, parameterizations, enhanced representation important processes, combined with targeted new artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning (ML) techniques. propose deeper collaboration across efforts decade. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation focus high-impact–low-likelihood (HILL) outcomes exceeding critical tipping points arising this. comprehensive change, including directly result actions, it spatially detailed, disaggregated information used generate available models. Conversely, there methods enable societal projected incorporated into scenario development. The data, scientific advances proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable by communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Language: Английский

Projections of Heavy Precipitation Characteristics Over the Greater Alpine Region Using a Kilometer–Scale Climate Model Ensemble DOI Creative Commons
Rebekka Estermann, Jan Rajczak, Patricio Velasquez

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Jan. 11, 2025

Abstract This study presents a detailed analysis of the CORDEX‐FPS multi‐model ensemble convection‐permitting climate simulations over greater Alpine region. These cover 10‐year time slices and were obtained by downscaling global model (GCM) projections, using regional models (RCMs) kilometer‐scale (CPMs). Our area agrees with previous studies in terms projected summer precipitation changes for end century, particular regarding decrease mean increases hourly intensities. In addition, we assess different subregions, provide analyses at monthly seasonal basis temporal aggregations ranging from 1 hr to 5 days, address extreme indices, present validation against an Alpine‐scale daily data set product based on 3 Doppler radars. The evaluation reveals that CPMs show refinement spatial patterns, reduce overestimation frequency, better capture intense characteristics. improvements are especially apparent sub‐daily scale season. Convection‐Permitting Model projections increase intensity all seasons across regions, except Mediterranean summer. qualitatively agree, despite significant differences GCMs circulation changes, suggesting heavy events is primarily due thermodynamic effects. We also hypothesis explaining why relative percentiles similar between RCMs, large biases RCMs.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Obtaining refined Euro-Mediterranean rainfall projections through regional assessment of CMIP6 General Circulation Models DOI
Giovanni-Breogán Ferreiro-Lera, Ángel Penas, Sara del Río

et al.

Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 104725 - 104725

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Doing better rather than promising more: A basic principle applicable to both climate modelling and climate policies DOI Creative Commons
Hervé Douville

PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 4(1), P. e0000466 - e0000466

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

A growing number of scientists are expressing concerns about the inadequacy climate change policies. Fewer questionning dominant modelling paradigm and IPCC’s success to prevent humanity from venturing unprepared into hitherto unknown territories. However, in view an urgent need provide readily available data on constraining uncertainty local regional impacts next few years, there is a debate most suitable path inform both mitigation adaptation strategies. Examples given how common statistical methods emerging technologies can be used exploit wealth existing knowledge drive policy. Parsimonious equitable approaches promoted that combine various lines evidence, including model diversity, large ensembles, storylines, novel applied well-calibrated, global regional, Earth System simulations, deliver more reliable information. As examplified by Paris agreement desirable warming targets, it argued display unrealistic ambitions may not best way for modellers accomplish their long-term objectives, especially consensus emergency allocated short time delivered applied.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Linkage Between Projected Warm Season Precipitation Systems and Thermodynamic and Microphysical Changes Over Eastern China DOI Creative Commons
Ziyue Guo, Juan Fang,

Sinan Gu

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(5)

Published: March 6, 2025

Abstract Changes in precipitation systems may affect the local economy, ecosystems, and populations, further research is necessary to understand their drivers under global warming. In this study, we use Weather Research Forecasting model at a convection‐permitting (CP, 4 km grid spacing) scale comprehensively warm season (May–October) system changes over eastern China. The CP simulations include historical run (HIST, 1998–2007) forced by ERA‐interim three pseudo‐global warming (PGW) for climate change projection added on monthly mean ensemble perturbations from CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 emission scenarios. warmer climate, frequency of weak decreases, whereas intensity heavy increase. This shift primarily due higher wet bulb temperature sector. Additionally, lower low‐level relative humidity, fewer liquid hydrometeors, increased maximum convective inhibition (MCIN) environment suppress occurrence systems. Meanwhile, more frequent large values available potential energy MCIN contribute upper‐level solid hydrometeors deeper cloud layer, leading future climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Overview of mean and extreme precipitation climate changes across the Dinaric Alps in the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble DOI
Sarah Ivušić, Ivan Güttler, Kristian Horvath

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 62(12), P. 10785 - 10815

Published: Oct. 23, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy DOI Creative Commons
Colin Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 1319 - 1351

Published: Oct. 18, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing integrated assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact has worked together over past few decades to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment thereby support policy. go recommend a number priority research areas for coming decade, timescale that encompasses newly starting activities, as well IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) second UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our impacts, increasing quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris targets – example, overshoot 1.5 or 2 °C warming, before returning levels at some later date. models be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots particular, efficacy mitigation measures, negative CO2 emissions, reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved long-term consequences stabilizing above pre-industrial temperatures also required. run CO2-emission mode more fully represent climate–carbon-cycle feedbacks and, wherever possible, interactively simulate other key phenomena risk rapid during overshoot. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections cover complete range potential responses accurate simulation observed, historical record remains fundamental requirement does metrics, effective sensitivity transient response cumulative carbon emissions. For adaptation, demand guidance changes extremes modes variability develop within. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution, parameterizations, enhanced representation important processes, combined with targeted new artificial intelligence (AI) machine learning (ML) techniques. propose deeper collaboration across efforts decade. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation focus high-impact–low-likelihood (HILL) outcomes exceeding critical tipping points arising this. comprehensive change, including directly result actions, it spatially detailed, disaggregated information used generate available models. Conversely, there methods enable societal projected incorporated into scenario development. The data, scientific advances proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable by communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Language: Английский

Citations

1