Escalating threat of human-perceived heatwaves in Brazil DOI Creative Commons
André S. Ballarin, Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira, José Gescilam S. M. Uchôa

et al.

Environmental Research Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 111004 - 111004

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Abstract Heatwaves pose significant threats to socioeconomic and environmental systems, with their intensity frequency expected increase due climate change. Despite critical impacts, future heatwaves in Brazil remain underexplored, especially from a human-perceived perspective, which is crucial for assessing potential public health impacts. Here, we propose method assess using the humidex ( H )—a index that combines temperature relative humidity indicate heat - alongside traditional temperature-based measures. Using bias-corrected simulations 10 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios, quantified projected changes across Brazil. The results will become more severe prolonged, greater scenario by end of century, particularly North, Northeast, Central regions. magnitude rise faster than ones, underscoring need health-focused assessments. strongly agree on increased heatwaves, potentially tripling population exposure most Brazilian states, Southeast experiencing its larger population. These events are not only affect people but also be severe, exceeding over 60 days per year serious danger H > 45 °C) century SSP5-8.5. Record-shattering historical period norm mid-century, highlighting accelerating nature these extreme events. Our findings emphasize importance considering impact studies planning mitigate Significance Statement increasing threat focus properties, overlooking aspects. This true Brazil, where receive limited attention. study introduces novel approach, coupling stress (H) evaluate them perspective. suggest intense prolonged future, record-breaking becoming mid-century. Human-perceived climate-based emphasizing increases triple (H pessimistic scenario.

Language: Английский

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon extreme rainfall frequency DOI Creative Commons
Devabrat Sharma, Santu Das, B. N. Goswami

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: April 13, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Heightened Adaptability Challenges from Extreme Humid Heat Stress for South Asia DOI Creative Commons
Prolay Saha, Joy Merwin Monteiro, P. K. Bora

et al.

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 25, 2025

Abstract While the explosive increase in extreme humid heat stress exposure from 2000’s over South Asian monsoon region is challenging human adaptability leading to productivity and mortality loss, factors responsible remain poorly constrained. Here, we unravel that disruptive regional climate change of decadal-mean maximum Humidex exceeding 45°C be primary cause. Over Northeast India, it results heat-stress during season rising fourfold 80 days or 800 ± 278 hours makes longest annual moist heat-spell duration threefold 30 2020’s. The adaptation crisis arises average length spells doubling 10 while gap between decreasing 3 days. Our findings changes characteristics holds for a large fraction Asia, highlight urgent need data on impact long-spells continued physiology appropriate advisories policy interventions.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Comparison of two distinct leading modes in the variability of summer humidex and temperature heatwaves over North America DOI Creative Commons
Dae Il Jeong, Bin Yu, Alex J. Cannon

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
2021 Heatwave Over Western North America: Structural Uncertainty and Internal Variability in GCM Projections of Humidex and Temperature Extremes DOI Creative Commons
Dae Il Jeong, Bin Yu, Alex J. Cannon

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2024

Abstract The 2021 heatwave over Western North America (WNA) led to record‐breaking air temperatures and human‐perceived heat stress (humidex) values. event was accompanied by drier conditions driven prolonged atmospheric blocking. During the heatwave, maximum 6‐day means of humidex temperature (HX‐6 TX‐6) exhibited larger anomalies (6.70 5.57°C) compared 95th percentiles (HX95 TX95) (4.12 3.73°C), relative 1981–2021 extended summer (June‐September) averages. Extreme indices show faster increases than those temperature, reflecting nonlinear positive relationship between temperature. Future projections from a multi‐model ensemble 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) clearly an increase in extremes, especially under intermediate high emissions scenarios. Humidex HX95) (TX‐6 for same future years global warming levels. Controlling differences GCM climate sensitivity greenhouse gas forcing yields robust at various levels, reducing ranges projected changes ensemble. At 3.0°C pre‐industrial, projects occurrences HX‐6, TX‐6, HX95, TX95 WNA that exceed levels occur every 3.9, 1.7, 1.4, 2.2 years, respectively, increasing almost annually 4.0°C.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Escalating threat of human-perceived heatwaves in Brazil DOI Creative Commons
André S. Ballarin, Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira, José Gescilam S. M. Uchôa

et al.

Environmental Research Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 111004 - 111004

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Abstract Heatwaves pose significant threats to socioeconomic and environmental systems, with their intensity frequency expected increase due climate change. Despite critical impacts, future heatwaves in Brazil remain underexplored, especially from a human-perceived perspective, which is crucial for assessing potential public health impacts. Here, we propose method assess using the humidex ( H )—a index that combines temperature relative humidity indicate heat - alongside traditional temperature-based measures. Using bias-corrected simulations 10 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios, quantified projected changes across Brazil. The results will become more severe prolonged, greater scenario by end of century, particularly North, Northeast, Central regions. magnitude rise faster than ones, underscoring need health-focused assessments. strongly agree on increased heatwaves, potentially tripling population exposure most Brazilian states, Southeast experiencing its larger population. These events are not only affect people but also be severe, exceeding over 60 days per year serious danger H > 45 °C) century SSP5-8.5. Record-shattering historical period norm mid-century, highlighting accelerating nature these extreme events. Our findings emphasize importance considering impact studies planning mitigate Significance Statement increasing threat focus properties, overlooking aspects. This true Brazil, where receive limited attention. study introduces novel approach, coupling stress (H) evaluate them perspective. suggest intense prolonged future, record-breaking becoming mid-century. Human-perceived climate-based emphasizing increases triple (H pessimistic scenario.

Language: Английский

Citations

0