Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

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Simulated Antarctic sea ice expansion reconciles climate model with observation

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Jan. 7, 2025

Abstract Observations reveal Antarctic sea ice expansion and Southern Ocean surface cooling trends from 1979 to 2014, whereas climate models mostly simulate the opposite. Here I use historical ensemble simulations with multiple show that sea-ice natural variability enables an during this period under anthropogenic forcings. Along expansion, subsurface temperatures up 50 o S, as well lower tropospheric between 60 S 80 exhibit significant trends, all of which are consistent observations. Compared decline scenario, brings tropical precipitation changes closer Neither Annular Mode nor Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation can fully explain simulated over 1979–2014, while is closely linked meridional winds associated a zonal wave 3 pattern.

Language: Английский

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Crucial role of sea surface temperature warming patterns in near-term high-impact weather and climate projection

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: June 13, 2024

Abstract Recent studies indicate that virtually all global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulty simulating sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns over the past four decades. GCMs produce enhanced warming in eastern Equatorial Pacific (EPAC) and Southern Ocean (SO) warming, while observations show intensified Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) slight cooling EPAC SO. Using Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s latest higher resolution atmospheric model coupled prediction system, we biases SST pattern profound implications for near-term projections of high-impact storm statistics, including frequency rivers (AR), tropical storms (TS) mesoscale convection systems (MCS), as well hydrological sensitivity. If future continues to resemble observed from few decades rather than GCM simulated/predicted patterns, our results suggest (1) a drastically different projection their associated hydroclimate changes, especially Western Hemisphere, (2) stronger sensitivity, (3) substantially less due negative feedback lower The roles EPAC, IPWP, SO, North Atlantic cyclone Main Development Region (AMDR) are isolated, quantified, used understand simulated differences. Specifically, AMDR crucial modeled differences AR MCS frequency, those IPWP essential TS Atlantic.

Language: Английский

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Tropical eastern Pacific cooling trend reinforced by human activity

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: July 24, 2024

Abstract It remains unresolved whether the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern during satellite era, featuring a distinct warming in northwest/southwest Pacific but cooling tropical eastern Pacific, is driven by either external forcing or internal variability. Here, conducting comprehensive analysis of observations and series climate model simulations for historical period, we show that combination variability human activity may have shaped observed SST pattern. As observations, SSTs each ensemble member multi-decadal swing between El Niño-like patterns due to The ensemble-mean trends some models are, however, found exhibit an enhanced zonal gradient along equatorial over periods such as 1979–2010, suggesting role forcing. In line with this hypothesis, single-forcing large human-induced stratospheric ozone depletion and/or aerosol changes acted enhance via strengthening trade winds, although effect dependent. Our finding suggests unlikely persist under sustained global because both impacts will eventually weaken.

Language: Английский

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Environmental consequences of interacting effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and climate: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2024

Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 17, 2025

Abstract This Assessment Update by the Environmental Effects Panel (EEAP) of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) addresses interacting effects changes in stratospheric ozone, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and climate on environment human health. These include new modelling studies that confirm benefits Montreal Protocol protecting ozone layer its role maintaining a stable climate, both at low high latitudes. We also provide an update projected levels UV-radiation during twenty-first century. Potential environmental consequences intervention scenarios are briefly discussed, illustrating large uncertainties of, for example, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). Modelling predict that, although SAI would cool Earth’s surface, other factors be affected, including depletion precipitation patterns. The contribution to global warming replacements ozone-depleting substances (ODS) assessed. With respect breakdown products chemicals under purview Protocol, risks ecosystem health from formation trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) as degradation product ODS currently de minimis . change continue have complex interactive due largely activities. UV-radiation, weathering factors, microbial action contribute significantly plastic waste environment, affecting transport, fate, toxicity plastics terrestrial aquatic ecosystems, atmosphere. Sustainability demands drive industry innovations mitigate use disposal plastic-containing materials. Terrestrial ecosystems alpine polar environments increasingly being exposed enhanced earlier seasonal snow ice melt because extended periods depletion. Solar contributes decomposition dead plant material, which affects nutrient cycling, carbon storage, emission greenhouse gases, soil fertility. In loss cover is increasing area oceans with possible negative phytoplankton productivity. However, Arctic Ocean circulation suggests circulating progressively deeper ocean layers less UV irradiation. Human modified behaviour patterns, resulting exposure harmful or beneficial depending conditions skin type. For incidence melanoma has been associated increased air temperature, time spent outdoors thus UV-radiation. Overall, implementation Amendments mitigated deleterious

Language: Английский

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Stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to the recent tropical La Niña-like cooling pattern

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 24, 2025

Despite the continuous global warming, over past several decades, tropical East Pacific has experienced a cooling trend whose origin remains an area of active research. Mounting evidence linked sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns to changes in Southern Ocean via remote teleconnections. Using fully-coupled climate model, we demonstrate that stratospheric ozone depletion can produce La Niña-like SST pattern resembling recent observations. This response initially arises from mid-latitude ocean adjustments ozone-driven surface wind anomalies, which then enhance tropics positive cloud feedback and wind-evaporation-SST feedback. Our finding suggests observed may have been, part, caused by formation hole late 20th century. It also implies recovery coming decades will likely contribute future weakening or reversal trends.

Language: Английский

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Stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to the recent tropical La Niña-like cooling pattern

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: April 22, 2025

Language: Английский

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Drivers of Chlorophyll‐a Variability and Trends in the Agulhas Region: Insights From 25 Years of Satellite Observations

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(5)

Published: May 1, 2025

Abstract The Agulhas Current system in the Indian sector of Southern Ocean is significant for climate as well marine ecosystems. Global warming and alteration wind patterns are altering region. However, it remains unresolved whether phytoplankton blooms region show a robust trend satellite data era, if so, what physical mechanisms account this trend. We used high‐resolution satellite‐derived chlorophyll‐ (Chl‐ ) data, proxy biomass, to examine seasonal long‐term trends their relationship sea surface temperature(SST), mixed layer depth (MLD), speed, height, stratification between 1998 2022. Using Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, we identified dominant spatial temporal associated with Chl‐ variability. Notable results indicate increase concentrations Return (ARC) Retroflection regions, increasing 26% 15% per decade, respectively. In ARC region, decreased SST, deepened MLD, intensified speeds promoted vertical mixing nutrient entrainment, supporting increased levels. This effect largely driven by Annular Mode (SAM), which enhances westerly winds, promoting these changes. contrast, influence SAM zone moderated stabilizing presence waters. These highlight complex interaction local processes broader climatic variability driving dynamics

Language: Английский

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Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice

˜The œcryosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 18(4), P. 2141 - 2159

Published: April 30, 2024

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well sudden decline. A number mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use statistical method called low-frequency component analysis analyze spatiotemporal structure observed concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes leading mode, which accounts for large-scale, expansion ice, is associated with Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation resembles surface temperature trend pattern that climate models trouble reproducing. second mode central El Niño–Southern (ENSO) Southern Annular Mode most in Ross Sea. third eastern ENSO Amundsen Sea Low pan-Antarctic almost all Weddell also related periods abrupt decline are weakening circumpolar westerlies, favors warming through shoaling ocean mixed layer decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest model biases long-term large-scale trends other key ingredient changes.

Language: Английский

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Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(11)

Published: June 6, 2024

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections future warming. Recent research suggests that 1980–2022 manifested as Global Cooling Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Amplification (AA), suppressed global warming this period. Here we show such an i‐GCAW rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations do produce similar exhibit a unique robust internally driven surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This SAT pattern features Barents Kara Sea cooling Tropical Eastern Pacific Southern Ocean. Given these are imprinted observed record decades, work makes crucial contribution discrepancy between observations model‐simulated forced patterns.

Language: Английский

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