Atlantic Ocean thermal forcing of Central American rainfall over 140,000 years DOI Creative Commons
Giuseppe Lucia, Davide Zanchettin, Amos Winter

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Dec. 4, 2024

Tropical hydroclimate in monsoonal regions has been largely understood according to the orbital monsoon hypothesis, which rainfall exhibits strong covariation with local summer insolation on precessional (~21,000 years) time scales, as exemplified Asian and South American stalagmite records. However, paleo-rainfall variations some tropical are poorly explained by suggesting alternative forcing mechanisms of regional changes. Here, we show a 140,000-year record Central from oxygen-isotope (δ18O) series precisely dated stalagmites reveals two dominant thermally-controlled regimes Atlantic Ocean thermal state linked meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is primary driver, control limited. Our reconstruction, supported isotope-enabled climate model simulations, pinpoints potential impacts future AMOC weakening Caribbean climate. A new multi-speleothem Guatemala demonstrates that sea surface temperature controlled convection during last glacial cycle, limited role for insolation.

Language: Английский

Understanding equilibrium climate sensitivity changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6: Feedback, AMOC, and precipitation responses DOI
Xinqi Wang, Lijuan Li, He Wang

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 107917 - 107917

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s DOI Creative Commons
Jens Terhaar, Linus Vogt, Nicholas P. Foukal

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: Jan. 15, 2025

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucial for global ocean carbon and heat uptake, controls the climate around North Atlantic. Despite its importance, quantifying AMOC's past changes assessing vulnerability to change remains highly uncertain. Understanding AMOC has relied on proxies, most notably sea surface temperature anomalies over subpolar Here, we use 24 Earth System Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) demonstrate that these cannot robustly reconstruct AMOC. Instead, find air-sea flux north of any given latitude in between 26.5°N 50°N are tightly linked anomaly at decadal centennial timescales. On timescales, strongly AMOC-driven northward through conservation energy. annual however, mostly altered by atmospheric variability less anomalies. Based here identified relationship observation-based estimates reanalysis products, averaged not weakened 1963 2017 although substantial exists all latitudes. overturning circulation authors CMIP6 25.6°N this relationship, they 26.5° 2017.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
AMOC Variability in Climate Models and Its Dependence on the Mean State DOI Creative Commons
Brady Ferster, Alexey V. Fedorov, Emmanuel Mignot

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(3)

Published: Feb. 9, 2025

Abstract Understanding internal variability of the climate system is critical when isolating and anthropogenically forced signals. Here, we investigate modes Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) using perturbation experiments with Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace's (IPSL) coupled model compare them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) pre‐industrial control simulations. We identify two characteristic variability—decadal‐to‐multidecadal DMD var centennial CEN ). The former driven largely by temperature anomalies in subpolar North Atlantic, while latter salinity western Atlantic. amplitude each mode scales linearly mean strength IPSL experiments. correlates well across CMIP6 models, does not. These findings suggest that depends robustly on state, may be model‐dependent.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Atlantic circulation could be more resilient to global warming than was thought DOI
Aixue Hu

Nature, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 638(8052), P. 893 - 894

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison DOI Creative Commons
Maya Ben‐Yami, Peter Good, Laura Jackson

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Abstract A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in vulnerable tropical monsoon regions. We assess these experiments that apply same freshwater hosing to four state‐of‐the‐art climate models with bistable AMOC. As opposed previous results, we find spatial and seasonal patterns change are remarkably consistent across models. focus South American Monsoon (SAM), West African (WAM), Indian Summer (ISM) East Asian (EASM). Models consistently suggest disruptions for WAM, ISM, EASM shorter wet longer dry seasons (−29.07%, −18.76%, −3.78% ensemble mean annual rainfall change, respectively). also agree changes SAM, suggesting increases overall, contrast studies. These more pronounced southern Amazon (+43.79%), accompanied by decreasing dry‐season length. Consistently models, our results a robust major rearranging all systems response an AMOC collapse.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Centennial‐Scale Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP6 Models Shaped by Arctic–North Atlantic Interactions and Sea Ice Biases DOI Creative Commons
Oliver Mehling, Katinka Bellomo, Jost von Hardenberg

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(20)

Published: Oct. 28, 2024

Abstract Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due scarceness suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model simulations, large uncertainties remain magnitude physical mechanisms driving centennial‐scale AMOC variability. For these reasons, we perform a systematic multi‐model comparison in pre‐industrial control simulations state‐of‐the‐art global models. Six out nine models this study exhibit statistically significant mode Our results show that freshwater exchanges between Arctic Ocean North provide plausible mechanism subset models, can be amplified by ocean–sea ice feedbacks Labrador Sea. The amplifying is sea cover biases, which could an observational constraint for

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown modulates wind-driven circulations in a warmer climate DOI Creative Commons
Mohima Sultana Mimi, Wei Liu

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Nov. 21, 2024

Abstract Wind-driven and thermohaline circulations, two major components of global large-scale ocean are intrinsically related. As part the circulation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has been observed is expected to decline over twenty-first century, potentially modulating wind-driven circulation. Here we perform coupled climate model experiments with either a slow or steady overturning under anthropogenic warming segregate its effect on We find that weakened generates anticyclonic surface wind anomalies subpolar North decelerate gyre circulation there. Fingerprints slowdown evident western boundary currents, encompassing weaker northward Gulf Stream Guiana Current stronger southward Brazil Current. Beyond Atlantic, causes poleward displacement Southern Hemisphere westerly winds by changing meridional gradients atmospheric temperature, leading shifts Antarctic Circumpolar Ocean circulations.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Atlantic Ocean thermal forcing of Central American rainfall over 140,000 years DOI Creative Commons
Giuseppe Lucia, Davide Zanchettin, Amos Winter

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Dec. 4, 2024

Tropical hydroclimate in monsoonal regions has been largely understood according to the orbital monsoon hypothesis, which rainfall exhibits strong covariation with local summer insolation on precessional (~21,000 years) time scales, as exemplified Asian and South American stalagmite records. However, paleo-rainfall variations some tropical are poorly explained by suggesting alternative forcing mechanisms of regional changes. Here, we show a 140,000-year record Central from oxygen-isotope (δ18O) series precisely dated stalagmites reveals two dominant thermally-controlled regimes Atlantic Ocean thermal state linked meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is primary driver, control limited. Our reconstruction, supported isotope-enabled climate model simulations, pinpoints potential impacts future AMOC weakening Caribbean climate. A new multi-speleothem Guatemala demonstrates that sea surface temperature controlled convection during last glacial cycle, limited role for insolation.

Language: Английский

Citations

0