Comment on egusphere-2024-453 -- Oliver Morton DOI Creative Commons
Colin Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth

et al.

Published: April 13, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact have worked together over past few decades, to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment, support policy. then recommend a number priority research areas for coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), timescale that matches newly starting activities encompasses IPCC 7th Report (AR7) 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our increase quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris Climate Targets, including overshoot 1.5 °C 2 targets, before later returning them. System models (ESMs) be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, particular, efficacy negative CO2 actions reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved assessment long-term consequences stabilizing at or above pre-industrial temperatures also required. ESMs run CO2-emission mode, more fully represent - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections are as realistic possible. accurate simulation observed record remains key requirement does metrics, Effective Sensitivity. For adaptation, guidance potential changes extremes modes variability develop in, demand. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution parameterizations. propose deeper collaboration across efforts targeting process realism coupling, enhanced resolution, parameterization improvement, data-driven Machine Learning methods. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation attention paid High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) outcomes. In risk exceeding critical tipping points during overshoot. comprehensive change, arising directly specific mitigation actions, it important detailed, disaggregated information Models (IAMs) used generate available models. Conversely, methods developed incorporate societal responses into scenario development. Finally, new data, scientific advances, proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable all communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Language: Английский

Reducing the computational cost of process-based flood frequency estimation by extracting precipitation events from large-ensemble climate dataset DOI Creative Commons
Jiachao Chen, Takahiro Sayama, Masafumi YAMADA

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132946 - 132946

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1

Climate change effects on the localized heavy rainfall event in northern Japan in 2022: Uncertainties in a pseudo-global warming approach DOI Creative Commons
Ryotaro Tahara, Yusuke Hiraga, So Kazama

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 314, P. 107780 - 107780

Published: Nov. 14, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5

EVALUATING BIAS-ADJUSTED ENSEMBLE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS WITH DIFFERENT SPATIAL RESOLUTIONS: COMPARISON OF PRECIPITATION AND RIVER DISCHARGE IN KYUSHU DOI

Yuta ITSUMI,

Ena HIGOTANI,

Miwa MIZUYAMA

et al.

Japanese Journal of JSCE, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 81(16), P. n/a - n/a

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF RAINFALL AND RUNOFF IN INLAND AND RIVER FLOODS USING SPATIAL RESOLUTION WITH GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTION DOI

Hisanori KUSUHARA,

Ryoukei AZUMA,

Kohji Tanaka

et al.

Japanese Journal of JSCE, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 81(16), P. n/a - n/a

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON DEBRIS FLOW INUNDATION AREAS EMPLOYING A PROBABILISTIC SEDIMENT YIELD PREDICTION MODEL DOI
Kazuki YAMANOI,

Kaori Shikakura,

Takahiro Koshiba

et al.

Japanese Journal of JSCE, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 81(16), P. n/a - n/a

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Detection and attribution of trends of meteorological extremes in Central America DOI Creative Commons
Hugo G. Hidalgo, Shu Wei Chou-Chen, Karen A. McKinnon

et al.

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 178(5)

Published: April 30, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Projecting Multiscale River Flood Changes Across Japan at +2°C and +4°C Climates DOI Creative Commons
Jiachao Chen, Takahiro Sayama, Masafumi YAMADA

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(5)

Published: May 1, 2025

Abstract This study addresses computational challenges in high‐resolution, large‐domain, process‐based flood quantile estimation, focusing on Japan's future risks at 150 m resolution. Using the Aggregating Grid Event (AGE) method, Rainfall‐Runoff‐Inundation (RRI) model, and Peaks‐Over‐Threshold (POT) approach, it incorporates 2,160‐year precipitation data from a 5‐km dynamically downscaled ensemble (d4PDF DDSJP) across three climate stages (historical, +2°C, +4°C). The AGE method identified critical events for estimations POT was employed to estimate 100‐year discharge (Q100) over 2.2 million river grid cells. Key findings include: (a) Nationwide, is projected increase 1.16 times (+2°C) 1.37 (+4°C), with equivalent return periods reduced 45 years 23 (+4°C). Northern regions (Hokkaido Tohoku) are particularly climate‐sensitive, exceeding national averages Q100 increases. (b) Small basins transition zones plains mountains exhibit higher ratios, necessitating targeted prevention measures. (c) Flash expected rise, most seeing flashiness increases of 10% 20% Southern Japan faces further flash intensification, while under +4°C stage anticipates emerging related floods. underscores urgency adaptive management strategies mitigate increasing risks, offering foundation informed policymaking public‐engaged mitigation. Simulation opens pathways research cascading disaster scenarios +2°C climates.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Bringing it all together: Science and modelling priorities to support international climate policy DOI Creative Commons
Colin Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben Booth

et al.

Published: Feb. 19, 2024

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing Integrated Assessment models, global and regional Earth system climate impact have worked together over past few decades, to advance understanding of change its impacts on society environment, support policy. then recommend a number priority research areas for coming ~6 years (i.e. until ~2030), timescale that matches newly starting activities encompasses IPCC 7th Report (AR7) 2nd UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these will significantly our increase quality utility science emphasize need continued improvement of, ability simulate, coupled change. There is an urgent investigate plausible pathways emission scenarios realize Paris Climate Targets, including overshoot 1.5 °C 2 targets, before later returning them. System models (ESMs) be capable thoroughly assessing such warming overshoots, particular, efficacy negative CO2 actions reducing atmospheric driving cooling. An improved assessment long-term consequences stabilizing at or above pre-industrial temperatures also required. ESMs run CO2-emission mode, more fully represent - carbon cycle feedbacks. Regional downscaling should use forcing data from simulations, so projections are as realistic possible. accurate simulation observed record remains key requirement does metrics, Effective Sensitivity. For adaptation, guidance potential changes extremes modes variability develop in, demand. Such improvements most likely realized through combination increased model resolution parameterizations. propose deeper collaboration across efforts targeting process realism coupling, enhanced resolution, parameterization improvement, data-driven Machine Learning methods. With respect sampling future uncertainty, between approaches large ensembles those focussed statistical emulation attention paid High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) outcomes. In risk exceeding critical tipping points during overshoot. comprehensive change, arising directly specific mitigation actions, it important detailed, disaggregated information Models (IAMs) used generate available models. Conversely, methods developed incorporate societal responses into scenario development. Finally, new data, scientific advances, proposed this article not possible without development maintenance robust, globally connected infrastructure ecosystem. This must easily accessible useable all communities world, allowing community engaged developing delivering knowledge

Language: Английский

Citations

3

Sensitivity of localized heavy rainfall in Northern Japan to WRF physics parameterization schemes DOI Creative Commons
Yusuke Hiraga, Ryotaro Tahara

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 314, P. 107802 - 107802

Published: Nov. 17, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

3

Sensitivity of Localized Heavy Rainfall in Northern Japan to Wrf Physics Parameterization Schemes DOI
Yusuke Hiraga, Ryotaro Tahara

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1