Spatial Regularities of Changes in the Duration of Low River Flows in Poland Under Climate Warming Conditions

Water, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. 243 - 243

Published: Jan. 16, 2025

On the basis of daily discharges recorded in 140 water gauges located on 96 Polish rivers, long-term changes runoff and number days with low flows (NDLF) relation to selected meteorological variables were studied. The analyses performed for entire multi-annual period 1951–2020 two sub-periods: 1951–1988 1988–2020 that are before after climate change. average values these hydro-meteorological sub-periods then compared. It was found 1988, a statistically significant (p < 0.001) increase air temperatures, ranging from 0.9 over 1.3 °C, occurred. Similarly, determined evaporation, which increased by about 10–25%. Precipitation did not show such changes—a decrease precipitation (by 5%) only southern part Odra River basin, most stations, insignificant increases recorded. complex took place river runoff. After gauges, 5–15% detected; some cases, decreases significant. In south-eastern country, primarily catchments right tributaries Vistula River, an 5–10% detected. However, case one gauge, tendencies Next, order determine spatial regularities NDLF, cluster analysis method used, grouped according 70 annual NDLF. This resulted separating three relatively homogenous territorially groups demonstrating clear regional differentiation concluded separation rivers terms different NDLF mainly influenced climatic conditions.

Language: Английский

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Doing better rather than promising more: A basic principle applicable to both climate modelling and climate policies

PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 4(1), P. e0000466 - e0000466

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

A growing number of scientists are expressing concerns about the inadequacy climate change policies. Fewer questionning dominant modelling paradigm and IPCC’s success to prevent humanity from venturing unprepared into hitherto unknown territories. However, in view an urgent need provide readily available data on constraining uncertainty local regional impacts next few years, there is a debate most suitable path inform both mitigation adaptation strategies. Examples given how common statistical methods emerging technologies can be used exploit wealth existing knowledge drive policy. Parsimonious equitable approaches promoted that combine various lines evidence, including model diversity, large ensembles, storylines, novel applied well-calibrated, global regional, Earth System simulations, deliver more reliable information. As examplified by Paris agreement desirable warming targets, it argued display unrealistic ambitions may not best way for modellers accomplish their long-term objectives, especially consensus emergency allocated short time delivered applied.

Language: Английский

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Projecting Daily Maximum Temperature Using an Enhanced Hybrid Downscaling Approach in Fujian Province, China

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(10), P. 4360 - 4360

Published: May 12, 2025

The rise in global temperatures and increased extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, underscore the need for accurate regional projections of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) to inform effective adaptation strategies. This study develops CNN-BMA-QDM model, which integrates convolutional neural networks (CNNs), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), quantile delta mapping (QDM) downscale project Tmax under future climate scenarios. stands out its ability capture nonlinear relationships between atmospheric circulation factors, reduce uncertainty, correct bias, thus improving simulation accuracy. is applied Fujian Province, China, using three CMIP6 GCMs four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from 2015 2100. results show that outperforms CNN-BMA, CNNs, other downscaling methods (e.g., RF, BPNN, SVM, LS-SVM, SDSM), particularly simulating value at 99% 95% percentiles. Projections indicate consistent warming trends across all SSP scenarios, with spatially averaged rates 0.0077 °C/year SSP126, 0.0269 SSP245, 0.0412 SSP370, 0.0526 SSP585. Coastal areas experience most significant warming, an increase 4.62–5.73 °C SSP585 by 2071–2100, while inland regions a smaller 3.64–3.67 °C. Monthly December sees largest (5.30 2071–2100), July experiences smallest (2.40 °C). On seasonal scale, winter highest reaching 4.88 SSP585, whereas summer shows more modest 3.10 Notably, greatest discrepancy south north occurs during summer. These findings emphasize importance developing tailored strategies based on spatial variations. provide valuable insights policymakers contribute advancement projection research.

Language: Английский

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Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 19, 2025

Abstract Exceeding 1.5 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels has become a distinct possibility, yet the consequences such an overshoot for mountain glaciers and their contribution to raising sea impacting water availability are not well understood. Here we show that exceeding then returning below will have irreversible glacier mass runoff over centuries. Global climate simulations project 3.0 peak-and-decline scenario lead 11% more loss by 2500 compared with limiting without overshooting. In basins where regrow after peak temperature, reduces further than if stabilize, phenomenon call ‘trough water’. Half studied glaciated reduced decades centuries warming. These findings underscore urgency near-term emissions reductions temperature overshoot.

Language: Английский

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