Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades DOI Open Access
Qinglong You, Jinzhong Min, Shichang Kang

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 36(6), P. 2660 - 2670

Published: Oct. 2, 2015

ABSTRACT On the basis of mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum from updated China Homogenized Historical Temperature Data Sets, recent warming in Tibetan Plateau ( TP ) during 1961–2005 global hiatus period are examined. During 1961–2005, whole show a statistically increasing trend especially after 1980s, with annual rates 0.27, 0.19 0.36 °C decade −1 , respectively. The performance 26 general circulation models GCMs available fifth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 is evaluated by comparison observations 1961–2005. Most can capture decadal variations observed have significant positive correlations R > 0.5), root squared error <1 °C. This suggests that reproduce evolution but cold biases. However, most underestimate rates, CNRM‐CM5 GISS‐E2 ‐H MRI‐CGCM3 models. There between magnitudes anomaly 0.85, 0.86 0.87, period, consistent decreasing snow cover albedo region. study snow/ice‐albedo feedback processes may account for ongoing surface despite pause warming.

Language: Английский

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather DOI

Judah Cohen,

James A. Screen, Jason C. Furtado

et al.

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 7(9), P. 627 - 637

Published: Aug. 17, 2014

Language: Английский

Citations

2197
Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century DOI Creative Commons
Eric C. J. Oliver, Markus G. Donat, Michael T. Burrows

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: March 29, 2018

Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves attracted considerable scientific public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature been changing globally is missing. Using range data including global records daily satellite observations, situ measurements gridded monthly situ-based sets, we identify significant increases over the past century. We find from 1925 to 2016, average heatwave frequency duration increased by 34% 17%, respectively, resulting 54% increase annual days globally. Importantly, trends largely be explained mean temperatures, suggesting expect further under continued warming.

Language: Английский

Citations

1623
Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends DOI
Daniel E. Horton, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Deepti Singh

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 522(7557), P. 465 - 469

Published: June 1, 2015

Language: Английский

Citations

605
Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate DOI Creative Commons
Angeline G. Pendergrass, Reto Knutti, Flavio Lehner

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: Dec. 15, 2017

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle's response to warming and its impacts. While mean extreme have been studied intensively, has received less attention, despite theoretical practical importance. Here, we show that most climate models increases over majority global land area (66% robust increase seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades RCP8.5 projections end 21st century, find global, multi-model mean, 3-4% K-1 globally, 4-5% 2-4% ocean, remarkably on range timescales from daily decadal. Precipitation by at least as much than moisture models, regions, timescales. We interpret this being related an which partially mitigated weakening circulation. observed station data are consistent with increased variability.

Language: Английский

Citations

567
The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet‐stream: Can it? Has it? Will it? DOI
Elizabeth A. Barnes, James A. Screen

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 6(3), P. 277 - 286

Published: March 13, 2015

The Arctic lower atmosphere has warmed more rapidly than that of the globe as a whole, and this been accompanied by unprecedented sea ice melt. Such large environmental changes are already having profound impacts on flora, fauna, inhabitants region. An open question, however, is whether these have an effect jet‐stream thereby influence weather patterns farther south. This broad question recently received lot scientific media attention, but conclusions appear contradictory rather consensual. We argue one point confusion arisen due to ambiguities in exact being posed. In study, we frame our inquiries around three distinct questions: Can warming midlatitude jet‐stream? Has significantly influenced Will framing discussion it?, it? provides insight into common themes emerging literature well highlights challenges ahead. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:277–286. doi: 10.1002/wcc.337 article categorized under: Paleoclimates Current Trends > Detection Attribution Climate Models Modeling Knowledge Generation with

Language: Английский

Citations

492
Widespread loss of lake ice around the Northern Hemisphere in a warming world DOI
Sapna Sharma, Kevin Blagrave, John J. Magnuson

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(3), P. 227 - 231

Published: Jan. 28, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

457
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 DOI Creative Commons
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(2), P. 491 - 508

Published: May 29, 2020

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response and emissions scenarios has historically relied on making assumptions about forced changes the mean variability. With advent multiple single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), these can be scrutinized, as they allow a more robust separation between sources uncertainty. Here, framework Hawkins Sutton (2009) for partitioning is revisited temperature precipitation using seven SMILEs Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5 CMIP6 archives. The original approach shown to work well at global scales (potential method bias < 20 %), while local regional such British Isles or Sahel precipitation, there notable potential (up 50 accurate achieved through use SMILEs. Whenever variability therein are important, need evaluate improve representation models evident. available good diversity many situations, them useful tool interpreting CMIP5. often shows larger absolute relative than CMIP5, although part this difference reconciled with higher average transient CMIP6. This study demonstrates added value collection quantifying diagnosing projections.

Language: Английский

Citations

441
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries DOI Creative Commons
Sebastian Bathiany, Vasilis Dakos, Marten Scheffer

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 4(5)

Published: May 2, 2018

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that models consistently project increases in temperature variability tropical countries over coming decades, with Amazon a particular hotspot concern. During season maximum insolation, by ~15% per degree global warming Amazonia and Southern Africa up to 10%°C

Language: Английский

Citations

414
The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?* DOI
James E. Overland, Jennifer A. Francis, Richard J. Hall

et al.

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 28(20), P. 7917 - 7932

Published: May 14, 2015

Abstract The potential of recent Arctic changes to influence hemispheric weather is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainty, as time series linkages are short (&lt;10 yr) understanding involves the relative contribution direct forcing by on chaotic climatic system. A way forward through further investigation atmospheric dynamic mechanisms. During several exceptionally warm winters since 2007, sea ice loss in Barents Kara Seas initiated eastward-propagating wave trains high low pressure. Anomalous pressure east Ural Mountains advected air over central eastern Asia, resulting persistent cold spells. Blocking near Greenland related low-level temperature anomalies led northerly flow into North America, inducing periods. Potential connections Europe less clear. Variability Pacific can reinforce downstream changes, amplification accentuate impact variability. authors emphasize multiple linkage mechanisms that regional, episodic, based existing jet stream patterns, which result combination internal variability, lower-tropospheric anomalies, midlatitude teleconnections. quantitative change may not be resolved within foreseeable future, yet new studies changing subarctic low-frequency dynamics, together additional observations, contribute improved skill extended-range forecasts, planned WMO Polar Prediction Project (PPP).

Language: Английский

Citations

391
The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes DOI Open Access
Dim Coumou, Jascha Lehmann, Johanna Beckmann

et al.

Science, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 348(6232), P. 324 - 327

Published: March 13, 2015

Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected autumn or winter, but whether significant have occurred is debated. Here we report weakening of summer detected three key dynamical quantities: (i) zonal-mean zonal wind, (ii) eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and (iii) amplitude fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening wind explained a reduction Changes waves EKE consistent with regression analyses climate model projections over seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes associated low EKE, thus observed might contributed to more persistent recent summers.

Language: Английский

Citations

345