Warming amplification over the Arctic Pole and Third Pole: Trends, mechanisms and consequences

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 217, P. 103625 - 103625

Published: April 14, 2021

Language: Английский

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Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 5(10), P. 921 - 930

Published: Sept. 4, 2015

Language: Английский

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Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 1393 - 1411

Published: Dec. 9, 2021

Abstract. While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Thus far Earth system modeling efforts have primarily focused projected changes the sensitivity of specific modes variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, our knowledge forced in overall spectrum higher-order statistics is relatively limited. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble projections conducted with Community System Model version 2 over 1850–2100 examine internal fluctuations greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations reveal that considered broadly terms probability distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, patterns, are ubiquitous span wide range physical ecosystem variables across many spatial temporal scales. Greenhouse warming model alters variance spectra characterized by non-Gaussian distributions, rainfall, primary production, or fire occurrence. results important implications for efforts, resource management, seasonal predictions, assessing potential stressors terrestrial marine ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Feb. 22, 2018

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between variability Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather active area of research. Using recently developed index severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence in United States significantly related to anomalies pan-Arctic geopotential heights temperatures. As transitions from relatively state warmer one, frequency mid-latitudes increases through transition. However, this relationship strongest eastern US mixed even opposite along western US. We also during mid-winter late-winter recent decades, when warming trend greatest extends into upper troposphere lower stratosphere, weather-including both spells heavy snows-became more frequent States.

Language: Английский

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What caused the recent “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” trend pattern in winter temperatures?

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 43(10), P. 5345 - 5352

Published: May 8, 2016

Abstract The emergence of rapid Arctic warming in recent decades has coincided with unusually cold winters over Northern Hemisphere continents. It been speculated that this “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” trend pattern is due to sea ice loss. Here we use multiple models examine whether such a indeed forced by loss specifically and anthropogenic forcing general. While show much amplification surface result from loss, find neither nor overall yield trends toward colder continental temperatures. An alternate explanation the cooling it represents strong articulation internal atmospheric variability, evidence for which derived model data, physical considerations. Sea impact on weather variability high‐latitude continents found, however, be characterized reduced daily temperature fewer extremes.

Language: Английский

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Mechanisms of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Circulation Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss*

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 28(19), P. 7824 - 7845

Published: Aug. 5, 2015

Abstract The impact of projected Arctic sea ice loss on the atmospheric circulation is investigated using Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a model with well-resolved stratosphere. Two 160-yr simulations are conducted: one surface boundary conditions fixed at late twentieth-century values and other identical except for ice, which prescribed twenty-first-century values. Their difference isolates future upon atmosphere. tropospheric response to imposed resembles negative phase northern annular mode, largest amplitude in winter, while less well-known stratospheric transitions from slight weakening polar vortex winter strengthening spring. lack significant shown be consequence largely cancelling effects Atlantic Pacific sectors, drive opposite-signed changes upward wave propagation troposphere Identical experiments conducted Model, version 4, WACCM’s low-top counterpart, show weaker different compared WACCM. An additional WACCM experiment limited August–November reveals that autumn weakens January, followed by small but early spring North Oscillation, attendant climate impacts.

Language: Английский

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The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 121(3), P. 586 - 620

Published: Dec. 11, 2015

Abstract Atmospheric humidity, clouds, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are essential components of the Arctic climate system. During recent decades, specific humidity precipitation have generally increased in Arctic, but changes poorly known. Trends clouds vary depending on region season. Climate model experiments suggest that increases related to global warming. In turn, feedbacks associated with increase atmospheric moisture decrease sea ice snow cover contributed amplification models captured overall wetting trend limited success reproducing regional details. For rest 21st century, project strong warming increasing different yield results for cloud cover. The differences largest months minimum Evapotranspiration is projected winter summer over oceans land. Increasing net river discharge Ocean. Over summer, rain snowfall surface albedo and, hence, further amplify snow/ice melt. With reducing ice, wind forcing Ocean impacts ocean currents freshwater transport out Arctic. Improvements observations, process understanding, modeling capabilities needed better quantify role water cycle its changes.

Language: Английский

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Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: April 24, 2018

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, so-called warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge scientific interest into natural surface temperature variability, observed biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during period, increases occurred for distinct reasons. increase extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas tied sea Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These indicate large-scale factors responsible most are from those temperature.

Language: Английский

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Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Jan. 1, 2018

Global climate models were used to assess changes in the mean, variability and extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs) northern oceans with a focus on large marine ecosystems (LMEs) adjacent North America, Europe, Arctic Ocean. Results obtained from 26 Community Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive 30 simulations National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). All of observed greenhouse gas concentrations 1976–2005 RCP8.5 “business as usual” scenario gases through remainder 21st century. In general, differences between are substantially larger than among CESM-LENS, indicating that SST more strongly affected by model formulation internal variability. The annual trends over 1976–2099 18 LMEs examined here all positive ranging 0.05 0.5°C decade–1. end century primarily due shift mean only modest most LMEs, resulting substantial increase warm extremes decrease cold extremes. is so many regions SSTs during 2070–2099 will always be warmer warmest year 1976–2005. generally stronger summer winter, heating integrated much shallower climatological mixed layer depth which amplifies seasonal cycle Arctic, its increases summer, when it ice free, but not winter thin reforms remain near freezing point.

Language: Английский

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Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 305 - 336

Published: March 29, 2022

Abstract. The physical understanding and timely prediction of extreme weather events are enormous importance to society due their associated impacts. In this article, we highlight several types extremes occurring in Europe connection with a particular atmospheric flow pattern, known as blocking. This pattern effectively blocks the prevailing westerly large-scale flow, resulting changing anomalies vicinity blocking system persistent conditions immediate region its occurrence. Blocking systems long-lasting, quasi-stationary self-sustaining that occur frequently over certain regions. Their presence characteristics have an impact on predictability can thus be used potential indicators. phasing between surface upper-level is major for development event. summer, heat waves droughts form below anticyclone primarily via subsidence leads cloud-free skies and, thus, shortwave radiative warming ground. winter, cold during normally observed downstream or south these systems. Here, meridional advection air masses from higher latitudes plays decisive role. Depending location, also may lead shift storm track, which influences occurrence wind precipitation anomalies. Due multifaceted linkages, compound often conjunction conditions. addition aforementioned relations, links climate change assessed. Finally, current knowledge gaps pertinent research perspectives future discussed.

Language: Английский

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