Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 11(8), P. 084003 - 084003

Published: July 29, 2016

The projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers global change key determinants exposure vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections widely used as inputs land use, energy emissions, well assessments impacts extreme events, sea level rise, other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there very few global-scale, spatially explicit projections, those that do exist often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set global, scenarios consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed facilitate research. We use parameterized gravity-based downscaling model produce quantitatively national urbanization for SSPs qualitatively assumptions in SSP narratives regarding development patterns. show five lead substantially different outcomes at continental, national, sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level most influenced by national-level change, second rate, third about style development. However, relative importance these factors is function magnitude total each country across SSPs. also demonstrate variation considering example existing low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.

Language: Английский

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Spectrally Selective Nanocomposite Textile for Outdoor Personal Cooling

Advanced Materials, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 30(35)

Published: July 17, 2018

Abstract Outdoor heat stress poses a serious public health threat and curtails industrial labor supply productivity, thus adversely impacting the wellness economy of entire society. With climate change, there will be more intense frequent waves that further present grand challenge for sustainability. However, an efficient economical method can provide localized outdoor cooling human body without intensive energy input is lacking. Here, novel spectrally selective nanocomposite textile radiative using zinc oxide nanoparticle–embedded polyethylene demonstrated. By reflecting than 90% solar irradiance selectively transmitting out thermal radiation, this enable simulated skin to avoid overheating by 5–13 °C compared normal like cotton under peak daylight condition. Owing its superior passive capability compatibility with large‐scale production, promising widely benefit sustainability society in many aspects spanning from economy.

Language: Английский

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Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 014001 - 014001

Published: Dec. 8, 2017

As a result of global increases in both temperature and specific humidity, heat stress is projected to intensify throughout the 21st century. Some regions most susceptible dangerous humidity combinations are also among densely populated. Consequently, there potential for widespread exposure wet bulb temperatures that approach some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits human tolerance by mid- late-century. We project 2080 relative frequency present-day extreme events could rise factor 100–250 (approximately double change alone) tropics parts mid-latitudes, areas which contain approximately half world's population. In addition, population recent deadly waves may increase five ten, with 150–750 million person-days above those seen today's severe 2070–2080. Under RCP 8.5, 35 °C—the limit tolerance—could per year 2080. Limiting emissions follow 4.5 entirely eliminates threshold. affected regions, especially Northeast India coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, rapidly growing populations. coming decades prove be one widely experienced directly aspects climate change, posing threat health, energy outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production military training.

Language: Английский

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IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 28 - 37

Published: Jan. 1, 2017

Language: Английский

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Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human‐Induced Climate Change

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 7(7), P. 692 - 703

Published: June 7, 2019

Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human-induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when occur exposure of people or crops. The 2018 spring-to-summer season was characterized by several major dry extremes. On daily average between May July about 22% populated agricultural areas north 30° latitude concurrent hot temperature Events this type were unprecedented prior 2010, while similar conditions 2010 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations present-day climate, is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display increase Based simulations, we show it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) hemispheric events not occurred Our results further reveal high-exposure area projected experience warm spells Northern Hemisphere increases 16% per additional warming. A strong reduction fossil fuel emissions paramount reduce risks global-scale wave impacts.

Language: Английский

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The surface urban heat island response to urban expansion: A panel analysis for the conterminous United States

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 605-606, P. 426 - 435

Published: June 30, 2017

Language: Английский

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Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 145, P. 57 - 66

Published: Aug. 29, 2016

Existing quantifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) used for climate impact assessment do not account subnational population dynamics such as coastward-migration that can be critical coastal assessment. This paper extends SSPs by developing spatial projections global distribution five basic SSPs. Based on a series migration drivers we develop narratives each SSP. These differences in and inland developments urban rural areas. To spatially distribute population, use International Institute Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) national urbanisation employ country-specific growth rates, which differ well regions, to project rates are derived from analysis historical data adjusted SSP based narratives. Our results show that, compared year 2000 (638 million), living Low Elevated Coastal Zone (LECZ) increases 58% 71% until 2050 exceeds one billion all By end 21st century, declines 830–907 million except SSP3, where continues reaches 1.184 billion. Overall, LECZ is higher 85 239 original IIASA projections. Asia expects highest absolute (238–303 Africa relative (153% 218%). highlight regions high expected will therefore face an increased exposure flooding.

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Feb. 11, 2020

Abstract Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past future changes in as well their underlying drivers societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show during 1960–2012, significant increases Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade −1 ) intensity (~0.28 °C of summertime arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase hemispheric-average a threefold growth by 2100 (relative 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure projected be four eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic climate scenarios.

Language: Английский

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Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change

Environmental Health, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 15(S1)

Published: March 8, 2016

In the context of a warming climate and increasing urbanisation (with associated urban heat island effect), interest in understanding temperature related health effects is growing. Previous reviews have examined how temperature-mortality relationship varies by geographical location. There been no examining empirical evidence for changes population susceptibility to and/or cold over time. The objective this paper review studies which specifically variations mortality risks 20(th) 21(st) centuries determine whether adaptation has occurred.We searched five electronic databases combining search terms three main concepts: temperature, outcomes vulnerability or adaptation. Studies included were those quantified risk with changing ambient specific location time, compared between two different extreme events (heatwaves) one location.The searches returned 9183 titles abstracts, eleven time six comparing effect heatwaves at discrete points included. Of papers that of, absolute ten found decrease be significant. magnitude varied Only attempted quantitatively attribute adaptive measures significant association air conditioning prevalence within cities Four expected later years. Five cold. contrast observed, only periods.There across number settings, decreasing. These important implications impact assessments future risk. A similar was not shown. Adaptation planning, particularly areas, anticipated increases due change.

Language: Английский

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Reduced exposure to extreme precipitation from 0.5 °C less warming in global land monsoon regions

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Aug. 2, 2018

The Paris Agreement set a goal to keep global warming well below 2 °C and pursue efforts limit it 1.5 °C. Understanding how 0.5 less reduces impacts risks is key for climate policies. Here, we show that both areal population exposures dangerous extreme precipitation events (e.g., once in 10- 20-year events) would increase consistently with the populous land monsoon regions based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multimodel projections. reduce once-in-20-year by 25% (18–41%) 36% (22–46%), respectively. avoided are more remarkable intense extremes. Among subregions, South Africa most impacted, followed Asia East Asia. Our results improve understanding of future vulnerability to, risk of, extremes, which paramount mitigation adaptation activities region where nearly two-thirds world's lives. has been suffering from precipitation. authors limiting instead could baseline rainfall extremes

Language: Английский

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