Permafrost is warming at a global scale

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Jan. 10, 2019

Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change been compiled. Here we use a data set time series from Global Terrestrial Network for evaluate across regions period since International Polar Year (2007-2009). During reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground near depth zero annual amplitude in continuous zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over same period, discontinuous warmed 0.20 0.10 mountains 0.19 0.05 °C Antarctica 0.37 Globally, 0.29 0.12 The observed trend follows Arctic amplification air increase Northern Hemisphere. In zone, however, occurred due snow thickness while remained statistically unchanged.

Language: Английский

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Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling for 2000–2016 at 1 km2 scale

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 193, P. 299 - 316

Published: April 25, 2019

Permafrost is a key element of the cryosphere and an essential climate variable in Global Climate Observing System. There no remote-sensing method available to reliably monitor permafrost thermal state. To estimate distribution at hemispheric scale, we employ equilibrium state model for temperature top (TTOP model) 2000–2016 period, driven by remotely-sensed land surface temperatures, down-scaled ERA-Interim reanalysis data, tundra wetness classes landcover map from ESA Landcover Change Initiative (CCI) project. Subgrid variability ground temperatures due snow represented using subpixel statistics. The results are validated against borehole measurements reviewed regionally. accuracy modelled mean annual (MAGT) ±2 °C when compared data. area (MAGT <0 °C) covers 13.9 × 106 km2 (ca. 15% exposed area), which within range or slightly below average previous estimates. sum all pixels having isolated patches, sporadic, discontinuous continuous (permafrost probability >0) around 21 (22% approximately 2 less than estimated previously. Detailed comparisons regional scale show that performs well sparsely vegetated regions mountains, but accurate densely boreal spruce larch forests.

Language: Английский

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Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: April 23, 2019

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators complex physical models integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions their subsequent impacts on global economy under Paris Agreement scenarios. The feedback is increasingly positive warmer climates, while albedo weakens as snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead significant increases mean discounted economic effect change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 2 +4.8% ($66.9 mitigation levels consistent with current national pledges. Considering makes target marginally more economically attractive than target, although both are statistically equivalent.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 24 - 38

Published: Jan. 11, 2022

Language: Английский

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Exploring the multiple land degradation pathways across the planet

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 220, P. 103689 - 103689

Published: May 25, 2021

Language: Английский

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Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change

˜The œcryosphere, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 14(9), P. 3155 - 3174

Published: Sept. 16, 2020

Abstract. Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution likely to control changes northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate permafrost dynamics global models participating Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previous CMIP5) along with sensitivity of climate change. Whilst air temperatures are relatively well simulated by models, they do introduce bias into any subsequent model estimate permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics defined relation temperature. This paper shows that climate, snow physics CMIP6 multi-model ensemble very similar CMIP5 ensemble. The main differences small number have demonstrably better insulation than deeper soil profile. These lead overall improvement representation extent. There little simulation maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP6. We suggest more should include better-resolved profile as first step towards addressing this. use annual mean thawed volume top 2 m from profiles for region quantify dynamics. project frozen could decrease 10 %–40 %∘C-1 surface temperature increase.

Language: Английский

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New high-resolution estimates of the permafrost thermal state and hydrothermal conditions over the Northern Hemisphere

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(2), P. 865 - 884

Published: Feb. 24, 2022

Abstract. Monitoring the thermal state of permafrost (TSP) is important in many environmental science and engineering applications. However, such data are generally unavailable, mainly due to lack ground observations uncertainty traditional physical models. This study produces novel datasets for Northern Hemisphere (NH), including predictions mean annual temperature (MAGT) at depth zero amplitude (DZAA) (approximately 3 25 m) active layer thickness (ALT) with 1 km resolution period 2000–2016, as well estimates probability occurrence zonation based on hydrothermal conditions. These integrate unprecedentedly large amounts field (1002 boreholes MAGT 452 sites ALT) multisource geospatial data, especially remote sensing using statistical learning modeling an ensemble strategy. Thus, resulting more accurate than those previous circumpolar maps (bias = 0.02±0.16 ∘C RMSE 1.32±0.13 MAGT; bias 2.71±16.46 cm 86.93±19.61 ALT). The suggest that areal extent (MAGT ≤0 ∘C) NH, excluding glaciers lakes, approximately 14.77 (13.60–18.97) × 106 km2 regions (permafrost >0) 19.82×106 km2. fractions humid, semiarid/subhumid, arid 51.56 %, 45.07 3.37 respectively. cold (≤-3.0 ∘C), cool (−3.0 −1.5 warm (>-1.5 37.80 14.30 47.90 new most comprehensive date contribute updated understanding NH. potentially useful various fields, climatology, hydrology, ecology, agriculture, public health, planning. All published through National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), link https://doi.org/10.11888/Geocry.tpdc.271190 (Ran et al., 2021a).

Language: Английский

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Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 39 - 54

Published: Jan. 11, 2022

Language: Английский

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Emergent biogeochemical risks from Arctic permafrost degradation

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(10), P. 809 - 819

Published: Sept. 30, 2021

Language: Английский

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Twenty years of European mountain permafrost dynamics—the PACE legacy

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 15(10), P. 104070 - 104070

Published: Aug. 12, 2020

This paper reviews and analyses the past 20 years of change variability European mountain permafrost in response to climate based on time series ground temperatures along a south–north transect deep boreholes from Sierra Nevada Spain (37°N) Svalbard (78°N), established between 1998 2000 during EU-funded PACE (Permafrost Climate Europe) project. In (at Veleta Peak), no is encountered. All other are drilled permafrost. Results show that warmed at all sites down depths 50 m or more. The warming depth varied 1.5 °C 0.4 Alps. Warming rates tend be less pronounced warm boreholes, which partly due latent heat effects more ice-rich with close 0 °C. At most sites, air temperature 2 height showed smaller increase than near-ground-surface temperature, leading an surface offsets (SOs). active layer thickness (ALT) increased c. 10% 200% respect start study period, largest changes observed Multi-temporal electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) carried out six decrease resistivity, independently supporting our conclusion ice degradation higher unfrozen water content.

Language: Английский

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