A standardized index for assessing sub-monthly compound dry and hot conditions with application in China

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25(3), P. 1587 - 1601

Published: March 30, 2021

Abstract. Compound dry and hot conditions frequently cause large impacts on ecosystems societies worldwide. A suite of indices is available for the assessment droughts heatwaves, yet there no index incorporating joint variability at sub-monthly scale. Here we introduce a daily-scale index, called standardized compound drought heat (SCDHI), to assess dry-hot conditions. The SCDHI based daily (the antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration – SAPEI), temperature (STI), probability distribution method. new verified against real-world events associated observed vegetation in China. can not only capture both monthly scales, but also good indicator impacts. Using SCDHI, quantify frequency, severity, duration, intensity during historical period ability climate models reproduce these characteristics We find that whose severity least light which last longer than 2 weeks generally persisted 20–35 d Southern China suffered from most frequently, severe were mainly detected this region. Climate overestimate China, especially western regions, be attributed too strong dependence between SAPEI STI those models. provides tool monitor their initiation, development, decay. This important information decision-makers stakeholders release early timely warnings.

Language: Английский

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Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(28)

Published: July 3, 2023

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, severity) continued anthropogenic warming relative baseline recent observed period (1982 2019). combine weekly information for 26 climate divisions across globe, employing historical model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically trends are revealed both simulated (2020 2099). East Africa, North Australia, America, Central Asia, Europe, Southeastern South America show greatest increase frequency through late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater occurrence, while Northern severity. Regional warmings play role changes most regions. These findings implications minimizing of extreme developing adaptation mitigation policies cope with risk water, food sectors critical geographical

Language: Английский

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Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 235, P. 104241 - 104241

Published: Nov. 8, 2022

Language: Английский

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Global increase in wildfire potential from compound fire weather and drought

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: March 25, 2022

Abstract Wildfire can cause significant adverse impacts to society and the environment. Weather climate play an important role in modulating wildfire activity. We explore joint occurrence of global fire weather meteorological drought using a compound events framework. show that, for much globe, burned area increases when periods heightened with dry antecedent conditions. Regions associated disasters, such as southern Australia western USA, are prone experiencing years weather. Such have increased frequency driven primarily by rather than changes precipitation. El Ni $$\tilde{{{{\rm{n}}}}}$$ ñ o Southern Oscillation is widespread, spatially compounding In Northern Hemisphere, La signature evident, whereas tropics and, lesser degree, Hemisphere. Other modes regional patterns atmospheric circulation also important, depending on region. that lengths seasons eastern North America substantially since 2000, raising likelihood overlapping these regions. These cross-hemispheric may be linked o, although sea-surface temperature magnitudes small. Instead, it likely anthropogenic change primary driver changes.

Language: Английский

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Global Increases in Compound Flood‐Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(8)

Published: April 18, 2022

Under global warming, a novel category of extreme events has become increasingly apparent, where flood and hot extremes occur in rapid succession, causing significant damages to infrastructure ecosystems. However, these bivariate compound flood-hot (CFH) hazards have not been comprehensively examined at the scale, their evolution under climate warming remains unstudied. Here, we present first picture projected changes CFH by using cascade modeling chain CMIP6 models, satellite reanalysis data sets, bias correction, hydrological models. We find an increasing percentage floods will be accompanied change; joint return periods CFHs are decrease globally, particularly tropics. These decreasing largely driven indicate likely increase hazards, ultimately highlight urgent need conduct adaptation planning for future risks.

Language: Английский

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Multiple anthropogenic pressures eliminate the effects of soil microbial diversity on ecosystem functions in experimental microcosms

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: July 23, 2022

Abstract Biodiversity is crucial for the provision of ecosystem functions. However, ecosystems are now exposed to a rapidly growing number anthropogenic pressures, and it remains unknown whether biodiversity can still promote functions under multifaceted pressures. Here we investigated effects soil microbial diversity on properties when faced with an increasing simultaneous global change factors in experimental microcosms. Higher had positive effect no or few (i.e., 1–4) were applied, but this was eliminated by co-occurrence numerous factors. This attributable reduction fungal abundance relative ecological cluster coexisting bacterial taxa. Our study indicates that reducing pressures should be goal management, addition conservation.

Language: Английский

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The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

iScience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(8), P. 104720 - 104720

Published: July 4, 2022

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of increasing complexity disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability suggest methodological approaches to assess include dynamics in our risk assessments, learning from compound multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, socio-ecological research communities. We argue for changed perspective, starting with circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. identify three types vulnerability: (1) underlying vulnerability, (2) changes during long-lasting disasters, (3) compounding societal shocks. conclude there is great potential capture using qualitative model-based methods, both reproducing historic projecting future provide examples narratives, agent-based models, system dynamics.

Language: Английский

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Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Aug. 16, 2022

Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) can have larger impacts on ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over period 1982-2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or about one out of five present-day MHW months) are compound event under a baseline, almost twice as many expected for 90th percentile exceedances if MHWs and OAX events were statistically independent. most likely subtropics (2.7 months; 10°-40° latitude) less equatorial Pacific mid-to-high latitudes (0.7 >40° latitude). The likelihood pattern results from opposing effects temperature dissolved inorganic carbon [H+]. is higher where positive effect [H+] increased temperatures outweighs negative co-occurring decreases carbon. Daily model output large-ensemble simulation an Earth system analyzed to assess changes climate change. projected long-term mean warming acidification trends largest number days per year, increasing it 12 265 year at 2 °C global relative fixed pre-industrial baseline. Even when removed, increase variability leads 60% warming. These increases may cause severe ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Reclassifying historical disasters: From single to multi-hazards

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 912, P. 169120 - 169120

Published: Dec. 7, 2023

Multi-hazard events, characterized by the simultaneous, cascading, or cumulative occurrence of multiple natural hazards, pose a significant threat to human lives and assets. This is primarily due cascading effects arising from interplay various hazards across space time. However, their identification challenging, which attributable complex nature hazard interactions limited availability multi-hazard observations. study presents an approach for identifying events during past 123 years (1900–2023) using EM-DAT global disaster database. Leveraging 'associated hazard' information in EM-DAT, are detected assessed relation frequency, impact on assets, reporting trends. The between combinations pairs explored, reclassifying them into four categories: preconditioned/triggering, multivariate, temporally compounding, spatially compounding events. results show, globally, approximately 19 % 16,535 disasters recorded can be classified as disproportionately responsible nearly 59 estimated economic losses. Conversely, single resulted higher fatalities compared largest proportion associated with floods, storms, earthquakes. Landslides emerge predominant secondary within pairs, triggered earthquakes, majority exhibiting preconditioned/triggering multivariate characteristics. There prevalence Asia North America, whilst temporal overlaps predominate Europe. These used increase integration thinking risk assessments, emergency management response plans mitigation policies at both national international levels.

Language: Английский

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The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: June 14, 2023

Compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events pose greater risks to the environment, society, and human health than their univariate counterparts. Here, we project decadal-length changes in frequency duration of CDHE for major U.S. cities during 21st century. Using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled an urban canopy parameterization, find a considerable increase future across all under compound effect high-intensity GHG- development-induced warming. Our results indicate that while GHG-induced warming is primary driver increased events, development amplifies this should not be neglected. Furthermore, We show highest amplification expected Great Plains South, Southwest, southern part Northwest National Climate Assessment regions.

Language: Английский

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