Nature, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 639(8056), P. 877 - 887
Published: March 26, 2025
Language: Английский
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)
Published: July 4, 2022
Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, harvest failures. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of northern midlatitudes over past 42 years. This accelerated trend is linked atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in frequency persistence double jet stream states Eurasia. We find occurrences particularly important for western European heatwaves, explaining up 35% temperature variability. The events explains almost all Europe, about 30% it extended region. Those findings provide evidence addition thermodynamical drivers, contributed increased rate with implications risk management potential adaptation strategies.
Language: Английский
Citations
325
Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 623(7987), P. 544 - 549
Published: Oct. 11, 2023
Language: Английский
Citations
75
Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4
Published: Sept. 16, 2022
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such now potentially possible through operational predictions. However, improved understanding the causes regional these timescales is needed both attribute recent gain further confidence forecasts. Here we document Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project will address this need coordinated model experiments enabling different external drivers be isolated. We highlight account errors propose an attribution approach exploits differences between models diagnose real-world situation overcomes potential atmospheric circulation changes. The analysis proposed here provide substantial improvements our ability understand near-term support World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity Explaining Predicting Earth System Change.
Language: Английский
Citations
47
Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)
Published: May 4, 2024
Abstract Observational and reanalysis datasets reveal a northward shift of the convective regions over northern Africa in summer an eastward winter last four decades, with changes location intensity thermal lows subtropical highs also modulating dust loading cloud cover Middle East North region. A multi-model ensemble from ten models Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—sixth phase gives skillful simulations when compared to in-situ measurements generally captures trends ERA-5 data historical period. For most extreme climate change scenario towards end twenty-first century, are projected migrate poleward by 1.5°, consistent expansion Hadley Cells, weakening tropical easterly jet up third strengthening typically 10% except eastern Mediterranean where storm track is polewards. The length seasons remain about same, suggesting warming likely be felt uniformly throughout year.
Language: Английский
Citations
17
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)
Published: April 12, 2024
Abstract Anthropogenic warming can alter large-scale circulation patterns in the atmosphere, which could have serious consequences for regional climate impacts and extreme weather. Observed thermodynamic changes boreal extratropics been attributed to human emissions with high confidence, but most not. In particular, not only that previous suite of models do capture recent summer storm tracks weakening, also a quantification role weakening has conducted date. Here we use latest models, are found adequately show this is attributable anthropogenic emissions. Human resulted more-rapid latitudes, associated reduction poleward temperature gradient weakened storms. The physical consistency between reanalyses increases our confidence projected presents risks including hot-dry extremes summer.
Language: Английский
Citations
13
Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6
Published: May 3, 2024
Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea contrasts have been predicted by models. However, other changes in tropical sea surface temperature monsoon rainfall are not well simulated model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability structural uncertainties the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests predictions may fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between observations understood due several real apparent puzzles limitations “signal-to-noise paradox” real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside possible range Addressing these discrepancies, is essential, because understanding reliably predicting necessary order communicate effectively about underlying drivers change, provide reliable information stakeholders, enable societies adapt, increase resilience reduce vulnerability. challenges achieving this greater Global South, especially lack observational data over long time periods a scientific focus on South change. To address models, it important prioritize resources for analyzing where why disagree via testing hypotheses biases using Gaps can be discovered filled exploiting new tools, artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution modeling experiments hierarchy, better quantification forcing, observations. Conscious efforts needed toward creating opportunities that allow experts, particularly those from take lead research. includes co-learning technical aspects simulations physics dynamics Finally, improved methods communication needed, which uncertainties, actionable stakeholders media.
Language: Английский
Citations
13
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)
Published: March 9, 2024
Abstract The summer Eurasian westerly jet is reported to become weaker and wavier, thus promoting the frequent weather extremes. However, primary driver of changing stream remains in debate, mainly due regionality seasonality jet. Here we report a sharp increase, by approximately 140%, interannual variability summertime East Asian (EAJ) since end twentieth century. Such interdecadal change induces considerable changes large-scale circulation pattern across Eurasia, consequently climate extremes including heatwaves, droughts, monsoonal rainfall regime shifts. trigger emerges from preceding February North Atlantic seesaw called Scandinavian (contributing 81.1 ± 2.9% enhanced EAJ variability), which harnesses “cross-seasonal-coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge” exert delayed impact on aids relevant predictions five months advance. projections state-of-the-art models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing exhibit no similar changes. This sheds light that, at timescale, substantial portion recently increasing sector arises unforced natural variability.
Language: Английский
Citations
11
Frontiers in Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2
Published: Oct. 1, 2024
The reality of human-induced climate change is unequivocal and exerts an ever-increasing global impact. Access to the latest scientific information on current projection future trends important for planning adaptation measures informing international efforts reduce emissions greenhouse gases (GHGs). Identification hazards risks may be used assess vulnerability, determine limits adaptation, enhance resilience change. This article highlights how recent research programs are continuing elucidate processes advance projections across major systems identifies remaining knowledge gaps. Key findings include projected increases in monsoon rainfall, resulting from a changing balance between rainfall-reducing effect aerosols rainfall-increasing GHGs; strengthening storm track North Atlantic; increase fraction precipitation that falls as rain at both poles; frequency severity El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, along with changes ENSO teleconnections America Europe; hazardous hot-humid extremes. These have potential human natural systems. Nevertheless, these reduced via urgent, science-led by reductions GHGs.
Language: Английский
Citations
11
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)
Published: Feb. 3, 2025
Abstract Given growing concerns about global climate change, it is critical to understand both historical and current shifts in the hydroclimate, particularly regions critically entwined with circulation. The Tibetan Plateau, Earth’s largest highest plateau, a nexus for atmospheric processes, significantly influencing East Asian hydroclimate dynamics through synergy of Monsoon Westerlies. Yet, understanding recent fluctuations their wide-ranging ecological societal consequences remains challenging due short instrumental observations partly ambiguous proxy reconstructions. Here, we present precisely-dated 3476-year precipitation reconstruction derived from tree-ring δ 18 O data on representing one few multi-millennia-long annually-resolved terrestrial records date. Our findings reveal that 20 th century drought extremes are severe within past three millennia, likely linked weakening Westerlies anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Additionally, our analyses identified distinct stages (110 BC–AD 280, AD 330–770 950–1300) characterized by toward arid conditions, corresponding significant social unrest dynasty collapses, which underscores potential impacts hydroclimatic shifts.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Science Advances, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(11)
Published: March 12, 2025
Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and impacts on society growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these will unfold. While challenges remain, given growing trends lengthening observational record, science community is now a position to confront signals, as represented by historical trends, models with observations. This review covers state ability represent system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled observed move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources discrepancies importance future confrontations.
Language: Английский
Citations
1