Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(3)

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for ecosystems under potential scenarios climate change. However, policy commercial activities typically occur on seasonal‐to‐decadal time scales, a span widely used in global modeling community but where skill level assessments MEMs their infancy. This is mostly due technical hurdles that prevent MEM from performing large ensemble simulations with which undergo systematic assessments. Here, we developed novel distributed execution framework constructed low‐tech freely available technologies enable analysis linked ESM/MEM prediction ensembles. We apply this scale, assess how retrospective forecast uncertainty an initialized decadal ESM predictions affects mechanistic spatiotemporal explicit trophodynamic MEM. Our results indicate internal variability has relatively low impact comparison broad assumptions related reconstructed fisheries. also observe sensitive specificities. case study warrants further explorations disentangle impacts change, fisheries scenarios, ecological hypotheses, variability. Most importantly, our demonstrates simple free empower any group fundamental capabilities operationalize modeling.

Language: Английский

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The future Barents Sea—A synthesis of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological changes toward 2050 and 2100

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

The Barents Sea is a hotspot for ongoing Arctic climate change, manifested in rapid warming of the ocean and atmosphere strong decline winter sea-ice cover. These changes physical environment have large consequences marine ecosystems, including commercial fish populations. In warmer future climate, both ecological are expected to intensify. Here, we provide first comprehensive overview change projections Sea, associated physical, biogeochemical, based on models end-to-end ecosystem models. We also discuss potential human activities their impacts, shipping activity contaminants. analyze results two time horizons—the near-future (2040–2050) far-future (2090–2100)—and different emission scenarios: one with moderate greenhouse gas emissions (SSP2-4.5) high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). show that will be warmer, less ice-covered, more acidic, productive, populations spawning sites moving northward. There small differences multi-model mean biogeochemical between scenarios by 2050, while emerge toward end century. implications these far-reaching, identifying sensitivity emissions, informing regional management strategies, potentially needs adaptation already likely occur.

Language: Английский

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Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: July 5, 2024

Abstract Climate warming is one of the facets anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, colder-water retracting. However, future extent implications these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint distribution model occurrence data 107, biomass 61 marine fish from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 2022 northeast Ocean, including Barents Sea. We project overall increases richness declines relative dominance community, generalised species’ ranges across three different scenarios 2050 2100. projected decline capelin practical extirpation polar cod system, two most abundant Sea, drove an reduction at latitudes that not replaced by species. Furthermore, our projections suggest demersal will be high risk extinction end century if no climate refugia available eastern latitudes.

Language: Английский

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Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: May 12, 2022

Abstract Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet’s changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts highly problematic for the communities businesses that depend on these living resources. Advances in prediction mean some regions drivers of be forecast up a decade ahead, although forecasts distribution this critical time-scale, while sought after stakeholders, have yet materialise. Here, we demonstrate application decadal-scale predictions habitat species. We show statistically significant skill individual years outperform baseline 3–10 ahead; multi-year averages perform even better, yielding correlation coefficients excess 0.90 cases. also underlying over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could been foreseen. Our results provide information direct relevance stakeholders decadal-scale. This tool will foreseeing, adapting coping with challenges future climate, particularly most ocean-dependent nations communities.

Language: Английский

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Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 5

Published: June 22, 2023

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and change projections offering prospect of seamless services. Though NTCP is a new area science active research taking place to increase understanding processes mechanisms required produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction future up decade ahead. With growing database, predictability evolving externally-forced internally-generated components system can be quantified. Decision-makers key sectors economy begin assess utility these products informing risk planning adaptation resilience strategies into future. Here, case studies presented finance economics, water management, agriculture fisheries management demonstrating emerging potential inform strategic across broad range applications global economy.

Language: Английский

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Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Dec. 5, 2023

Abstract Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools transition forecasting configuration provide skilful up 12 months in advance. The use ocean temperature anomalies help mitigate whale entanglements sea turtle bycatch, we show that forewarn human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented extremes. further regionally downscaled not necessity be less than global if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight explored regions without infrastructure or downscale, ultimately helping improve resource adaptation globally.

Language: Английский

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Atlantic mackerel population structure does not support genetically distinct spawning components

Open Research Europe, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 4, P. 82 - 82

Published: Jan. 20, 2025

Background The Atlantic mackerel, Scomber scombrus (Linnaeus, 1758) is a commercially valuable migratory pelagic fish inhabiting the northern Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Given its highly behaviour for feeding spawning, several studies have been conducted to assess differentiation among spawning components better define management units, as well investigate possible adaptations comprehend predict recent range expansion northwards. Methods Here, genome of S. was sequenced annotated, an increasing number population genetic proven relevance reference genomes genomic markers/regions potentially linked differences at finer scale. Such used map Restriction-site-associated sequencing (RAD-seq) reads SNP discovery genotyping in more than 500 samples distributed along species range. resulting tables perform connectivity adaptation analyses. Results assembly resulted 741 Mb. Our results show that mackerel consist three previously known genetically isolated units (Northwest Atlantic, Northeast Mediterranean), provide no evidence distinct within Northwest or Atlantic. Conclusions Therefore, our findings resolved previous uncertainties by confirming absence each side thus rejecting homing need redefine boundaries this species. In addition, further signs ongoing were detected species.

Language: Английский

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Forecast‐ready models to support fisheries' adaptation to global variability and change

Fisheries Oceanography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 32(4), P. 405 - 417

Published: March 28, 2023

Abstract Ocean and climate drivers affect the distribution abundance of marine life on a global scale. Marine ecological forecasting seeks to predict how living resources respond physical variability change, enabling proactive decision‐making support adaptation. However, skill forecasts is constrained by underlying models both ocean state species‐environment relationships. As test data‐driven for fisheries, we developed predictive catch‐per‐unit‐effort (CPUE) tuna billfish across south‐west Pacific Ocean, using 12‐year time series catch data large ensemble reanalysis. Descriptors water column structure, particularly temperature at depth upper heat content, emerged as useful predictors CPUE species. Enhancing forecast over sub‐seasonal multi‐year timescales in any system likely require inclusion sub‐surface explicit consideration regional dynamics.

Language: Английский

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Thermal sensitivity of field metabolic rate predicts differential futures for bluefin tuna juveniles across the Atlantic Ocean

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Nov. 27, 2023

Language: Английский

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Robust Estimates of Earth System Predictability of the 1st kind using the CESM2 Multiyear Prediction System (CESM2-MP)

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 3, 2025

Here we present a new seasonal-to-multiyear Earth prediction system (CESM2-MP) based on the Community System Model version 2 (CESM2). A 20-member ensemble which assimilates oceanic temperature and salinity anomalies provides initial conditions for 5-year predictions from 1960 to 2020. We analyze skills using pairwise statistics, calculated among individual members (IM) compare results with more commonly used mean (EM) approach. This comparison is motivated by fact that an EM of nonlinear dynamical generates – unlike reality heavily smoothed trajectory, akin slow manifold evolution. However, most autonomous systems, does not even represent solution underlying physical equations, it should therefore be as estimate expected trajectory. The IM-based approach less sensitive size than EM-based skill computations, its estimates potential predictability are closer actual skill. Using statistics helps unravel physics patterns in CESM-MP their relationship ocean-atmosphere-land interactions climate modes. Furthermore, method emphasizes 1st kind associated propagation conditions. In contrast, 2nd kind, external forcing time-varying boundary Calculating insights into sources due ocean delineate quantify forecast limits internal variability.

Language: Английский

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