Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts DOI Creative Commons
Sarah E. Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Lisa V. Alexander, Andrew D. King

et al.

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Oct. 14, 2024

The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been and implemented, physical modelling capabilities generally improved, impact emerged, assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather events in lived experience. However, number non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by community to secure further advancement whilst ensuring scientific rigour appropriate use findings stakeholders associated applications. As part concept series commissioned World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments six key domains relevant EEA, provides recommendations where focus EEA should concentrated coming decade. These are: (1) observations context EEA; (2) definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) (5) attribution; (6) communication. Broadly, call increased capacity building, particularly more vulnerable regions; guidelines assessing suitability models; establishing best-practice methodologies on compound record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement develop scaffolding their broader applications; ongoing investment To address these requires significant multiple fields either underpin (e.g., monitoring; modelling) or are closely related events; impacts) well working consistently with experts outside science generally. if approached investment, dedication, coordination, tackling next decade will ensure robust analysis, tangible benefits global community.

Language: Английский

An update on the influence of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on tropical cyclones DOI Creative Commons
Suzana J. Camargo, Hiroyuki Murakami, Nadia Bloemendaal

et al.

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(3), P. 216 - 239

Published: Sept. 1, 2023

A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding effect climate change tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards risks. These reinforced robustness increases TC intensity risks due to anthropogenic change. New modeling observational suggested potential influence forcings, including greenhouse gases aerosols, global regional activity at decadal century time scales. However, there are still uncertainties owing model uncertainty simulating historical variability Atlantic, limitations observed records. The projected future TCs has become more uncertain IWTC-9 frequency by a few models. new paradigm, seeds, proposed, is currently debate whether seeds can help explain physical mechanism behind changes frequency. also highlighted importance large-scale environmental fields activity, such as snow cover air-sea interactions. Future projections translation speed medicanes additional focus topics report. Recommendations research proposed relevant remaining scientific questions assisting policymakers.

Language: Английский

Citations

23
Event attribution is ready to inform loss and damage negotiations DOI
Ilan Noy, Michael Wehner, Dáithí A. Stone

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(12), P. 1279 - 1281

Published: Nov. 16, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

20
Ten new insights in climate science 2023 DOI Creative Commons
Mercedes Bustamante, Joyashree Roy, Daniel Ospina

et al.

Global Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Non-technical summary We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability implications overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for rapid managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future contribution sinks, (5) intertwinedness crises biodiversity loss change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility face risks, (9) adaptation justice, (10) just transitions food systems. Technical The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides scientific foundation international negotiations constitutes an unmatched resource researchers. However, assessment cycles take multiple years. As to cross- interdisciplinary understanding diverse communities, we have streamlined annual process synthesize significant advances. collected input from experts various fields using online questionnaire prioritized 10 key insights relevance. This year, focus on: overshoot urgency scale-up joint governance accelerated amidst present succinct account these insights, reflect their implications, offer integrated policy-relevant messages. science synthesis communication effort is also basis report contributing elevate every year time United Nations Conference. Social media highlight – more than 200 experts.

Language: Английский

Citations

19
Effects of high-quality elevation data and explanatory variables on the accuracy of flood inundation mapping via Height Above Nearest Drainage DOI Creative Commons
Fernando Aristizabal, Taher Chegini, Gregory Petrochenkov

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(6), P. 1287 - 1315

Published: March 22, 2024

Abstract. Given the availability of high-quality and high-spatial-resolution digital elevation maps (DEMs) from United States Geological Survey's 3D Elevation Program (3DEP), derived mostly light detection ranging (lidar) sensors, we examined effects these DEMs at various spatial resolutions on quality flood inundation map (FIM) extents a terrain index known as Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND). We found that using improved resulting FIM around 80 % catchments analyzed when compared to National Hydrography Dataset Plus High Resolution (NHDPlusHR) program. Additionally, varied resolution 3DEP 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 m (meters), results showed no significant overall effect extent across resolutions. However, further analysis coarser 60 90 revealed degradation in skill, highlighting limitations extremely coarse-resolution DEMs. Our experiments demonstrated burden terms computational time required produce HAND related data finer fit multiple linear regression model help explain catchment-scale variations four metrics employed lack reservoir flooding or upstream river retention systems was factor our analysis. For validation, used Interagency Flood Risk Management (InFRM) Base Level Engineering (BLE)-produced streamflows 100- 500-year event magnitudes sub-region eastern Texas.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Extreme events impact attribution: A state of the art DOI Creative Commons
Ilan Noy, Dáithí A. Stone, Tomáš Uher

et al.

Cell Reports Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 1(5), P. 100101 - 100101

Published: May 1, 2024

Extreme weather events lead to many adverse societal, economic, and environmental consequences. Anthropogenic climate change has been identified as a factor that may have already increased the frequency intensity of these events. The methods extreme event attribution (EEA) quantify extent which affected specific recent in past 20 years combined more recently with socio-economic impact data weather's impacts attributable change. This (EEIA) is quickly developing field considers kinds questions about on we should ask, what are best suited answer them, how interpret results provide, purpose can serve. We discuss EEIA, review EEIA results, their implications potential uses.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Climate Changes Affect Human Capital DOI
Germán Caruso,

Inés de Marcos,

Ilan Noy

et al.

Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(1), P. 157 - 196

Published: Jan. 16, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs DOI Creative Commons
Yating Zhang, Bilal M. Ayyub, Juan F. Fung

et al.

Resilient Cities and Structures, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 103 - 113

Published: March 1, 2024

In the last decade, detection and attribution science that links climate change to extreme weather events has emerged as a growing field of research with an increasing body literature. This paper overviews methods for event (EEA) discusses new insights EEA provides infrastructure adaptation. We found can inform stakeholders about current risk, support vulnerability-based hazard-based adaptations, assist in development cost-effective adaptation strategies, enhance justice equity allocation resources. As engineering practice shifts from retrospective approach proactive, forward-looking risk management strategy, be used together projections comprehensiveness decision making, including planning preparing unprecedented events. Additionally, assessment more useful when exposure vulnerability communities past are analyzed, future changes probability evaluated. Given large uncertainties inherent projections, should examine sensitivity design model uncertainties, adapt practice, building codes, uncertain conditions. While this study focuses on planning, also tool informing enhancing decisions related mitigation.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Mobility behaviors shift disparity in flood exposure in U.S. population groups DOI
Bo Li, Chao Fan,

Yu-Heng Chien

et al.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 108, P. 104545 - 104545

Published: May 10, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Operational extreme weather event attribution can quantify climate change loss and damages DOI Creative Commons
Michael Wehner, Kevin A. Reed

PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(2), P. e0000013 - e0000013

Published: Feb. 1, 2022

“It is now well established that the influence of anthropogenic climate change on certain individual extreme weather events can be quantified by event attribution techniques. It time these activities move from research community to operational centers. Such routine evaluation human increases our scientific understanding and informs public impacts. Furthermore, quantification used fairly evaluate induced loss damages”.

Language: Английский

Citations

20
Inequality determined social outcomes of low-carbon transition policies: A conceptual meta-review of justice impacts DOI Creative Commons
Chandni Dwarkasing

Energy Research & Social Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 97, P. 102974 - 102974

Published: Feb. 9, 2023

Inequality and climate change represent two key challenges in modern societies across the world. In this paper, we provide a critical engagement with literature that treats aggravated social economic inequalities as (potential) negative outcomes of low-carbon transition policies aim to achieve carbon emission reductions energy transport sectors. We introduce conceptual meta-review systematises but also departs from three existing reviews by challenging prevailing treatment ex-post outcomes. Instead, draw on multifaceted systemic occurrences are rooted socio-economic structures. Therefore, exhibits an inequality filter which shapes nature policy costs, benefits compliance. other words, treated ex-ante phenomena interact policies. This interaction then determines terms access, health, employment, essential goods affordability livelihoods. Each these feed back into where either amplified or diminished. order examine efficacy our framework, limited review more recent discusses well measures prevent Altogether, paper suggests mitigation inequalities, rather than prevention is necessary avert transmission

Language: Английский

Citations

13