Non-monotonic changes in Asian Water Towers’ streamflow at increasing warming levels

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: March 1, 2023

Previous projections show consistent increases in river flows of Asian Water Towers under future climate change. Here we find non-monotonic changes for seven major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at warming levels 1.5 °C, 2.0 and 3.0 °C based on an observation-constrained hydrological model. The annual mean streamflow level decreases by 0.1-3.2% relative to present-day condition, 1.5-12% level. shifting Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, Ganges are mostly influenced projected rainfall, but those Mekong, Salween, Indus dictated snowmelt glacier melt. Reduced a moderately warmed threaten water security riparian countries, while elevated flood risks expected with further temperature over Plateau.

Language: Английский

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Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(32)

Published: Aug. 9, 2023

The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that 2022 drought is worst event (30% lower than second worst, with six-century return period), part an increasing trend in severe occurrence. decline summer flows (-4.14 cubic meters per year), which more relevant precipitation decline, attributed to combination changes regime, resulting snow fraction (-0.6% year) snowmelt (-0.18 millimeters day evaporation rate (+0.013 kilometers irrigated areas (100% increment from 1900). Our study presents compelling case where impact change exacerbated by local hydrologic seasonality water use.

Language: Английский

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Southeast Asian ecological dependency on Tibetan Plateau streamflow over the last millennium

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(12), P. 1151 - 1158

Published: Nov. 13, 2023

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the 2022 extreme drought in the Yangtze River Basin using GRACE-FO

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 630, P. 130680 - 130680

Published: Jan. 23, 2024

Language: Английский

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The Dynamic Monitoring and Driving Forces Analysis of Ecological Environment Quality in the Tibetan Plateau Based on the Google Earth Engine

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 682 - 682

Published: Feb. 14, 2024

As a region susceptible to the impacts of climate change, evaluating temporal and spatial variations in ecological environment quality (EEQ) potential influencing factors is crucial for ensuring security Tibetan Plateau. This study utilized Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform construct Remote Sensing-based Ecological Index (RSEI) examined dynamics Plateau’s EEQ from 2000 2022. The findings revealed that RSEI Plateau predominantly exhibited slight degradation trend 2022, with multi-year average 0.404. Utilizing SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanation) interpret XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), identified natural as primary influencers on Plateau, temperature, soil moisture, precipitation variables exhibiting higher values, indicating their substantial contributions. interaction between temperature showed positive effect RSEI, value increasing rising precipitation. methodology results this could provide insights comprehensive understanding monitoring dynamic evolution amidst context change.

Language: Английский

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Reconstructed Jing River streamflow from western China: A 399-year perspective for hydrological changes in the Loess Plateau

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 621, P. 129573 - 129573

Published: April 25, 2023

Language: Английский

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Prediction of streamflow based on the long-term response of streamflow to climatic factors in the source region of the Yellow River

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 52, P. 101681 - 101681

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

The source region of the Yellow River (SRYE) is located in eastern part Tibetan Plateau a major water production and conservation area for River. This study aims to investigate correlations between streamflow meteorological factors/ocean SRYE from 1960 2018 using wavelet analysis. effects signals on were calculated Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM). Furthermore, climate factors with strong correlation used as inputs random forest (RF) multiple linear regression (MLR) models predict monthly streamflow. Meteorological showed stronger compared ocean signals, explaining 79.3% variation much higher than (0.1%). Among factors, precipitation had largest direct effect (P < 0.01), followed by potential evapotranspiration snow depth > 0.05), which together explained 78% variability. Temperature relative humidity are two important that indirectly influenced through 0.01). Finally, precipitation, humidity, minimum temperature chosen predictors SRYE. RF better performance predicting long-term MLR under complex climate-hydrological system.

Language: Английский

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Glaciers determine the sensitivity of hydrological processes to perturbed climate in a large mountainous basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(3), P. 669 - 689

Published: Feb. 15, 2024

Abstract. The major rivers on the Tibetan Plateau supply important freshwater resources to riparian regions but have been undergoing significant climate change in recent decades. Understanding sensitivities of hydrological processes is for water resource management, large divergences exist previous studies because uncertainties models and projection data. Meanwhile, spatial pattern local was poorly explored despite strong heterogeneity Plateau. This study adopted perturbation method analyze a typical mountainous basin (Yarlung Tsangpo River, YTR) change. We utilized tracer-aided model Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed-Tracer-aided version (THREW-T) simulate cryospheric YTR basin. Multiple datasets internal stations were used validate provide confidence baseline simulation sensitivity analysis. Results indicated that (1) THREW-T performed well simulating streamflow, snow cover area (SCA), glacier mass balance (GMB) stream isotope, ensuring good representation key reasonable estimation runoff components. acceptably streamflow at eight located mainstream two tributaries, indicating reflected by model. (2) Increasing temperature led decreasing annual runoff, smaller inter-annual variation, more even intra-annual distribution an earlier maximum runoff. It also influenced regime increasing contributions rainfall melt overland subsurface snowmelt precipitation had opposite effect temperature. (3) response varied significantly, with changing rate −18.6 % 54.3 5∘ warming. ratio (GAR) dominant factor both perturbed precipitation. Some non-monotonic perturbation, which represented most dynamic within basin, as they kept shifting between energy- water-limited stages. GAR mean (MAP) linear relation formed boundary different trends GAR–MAP plot.

Language: Английский

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Increasing Risks of Future Compound Climate Extremes With Warming Over Global Land Masses

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2023

Abstract Compound climate extremes (here referred to compound dry–hot events and pluvial–hot events) result in devastating disasters which threaten water‐food‐energy security. However, a warming scenario, the risk of occurrence, quantification uncertainty, associated drivers extremes—particularly events—have not been fully explored. By leveraging model large ensembles, it is revealed that projected increase 2–3 times over most global land masses future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing compared with historical forcing. Increased risks are mainly attributed changes temperature dependence between precipitation temperature, while change contributing these two exhibits approximately spatial complementary. In world, hot spots lie Europe, South Africa, Amazon, those mostly eastern USA, southern Asia, Australia, central Africa. These findings help stakeholders decision makers develop package adaptation strategies manage mitigate extremes.

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: May 19, 2023

Abstract The increased precipitation in the Asian water tower has prompted abrupt lake expansion and runoff, significantly reshaping resource redistribution Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP). However, dynamic attribution behind this decadal increment remains unclear. Here, analysis of observations, large ensemble simulations, pacemaker experiments indicates that increase was mainly attributed to synergistic effects external forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse aerosol emissions) Pacific internal variability, while Atlantic Indian Ocean play a secondary role. Observations simulations show thermodynamic work collaboratively increase. Remarkably, upper-level convergence over ITP would be enhanced through teleconnection atmospheric feedback when involving resulting more occurrence. Further analyses stationary Rossby wave propagation Eurasia strengthened transient eddy activity North could contribute anomalous cyclone weakened East westerly jet, which built pathway for variability impacting ITP. These results can improve our understanding summer applied emergent constraints on future prediction.

Language: Английский

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