The 2018–2020 Multi‐Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(3)

Published: March 1, 2022

During the period 2018–2020, Europe experienced a series of hot and dry weather conditions with significant socioeconomic environmental consequences. Yet, extremity these multi-year is not recognized. Here, we provide comprehensive spatio-temporal assessment drought hazard over by benchmarking past exceptional events during from 1766 to 2020. We identified 2018–2020 event as new benchmark having an unprecedented intensity that persisted for more than 2 years, exhibiting mean areal coverage 35.6% average duration 12.2 months. What makes this truly compared its near-surface air temperature anomaly reaching +2.8 K, which constitutes further evidence ongoing global warming exacerbating present events. Furthermore, future based on climate model simulations Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 suggest should be prepared comparable but durations longer any those in last 250 years. Our study thus emphasizes urgent need adaption mitigation strategies cope such across Europe.

Language: Английский

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Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(3), P. 259 - 272

Published: Jan. 5, 2023

Language: Английский

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Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(28)

Published: July 3, 2023

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, severity) continued anthropogenic warming relative baseline recent observed period (1982 2019). combine weekly information for 26 climate divisions across globe, employing historical model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically trends are revealed both simulated (2020 2099). East Africa, North Australia, America, Central Asia, Europe, Southeastern South America show greatest increase frequency through late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater occurrence, while Northern severity. Regional warmings play role changes most regions. These findings implications minimizing of extreme developing adaptation mitigation policies cope with risk water, food sectors critical geographical

Language: Английский

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Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 817, P. 152552 - 152552

Published: Dec. 21, 2021

Understanding and modelling future risks from natural hazards is becoming increasingly crucial as the climate changes, human population grows, asset wealth accumulates, societies become more urbanised interconnected. This need recognised by 2015–2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which emphasises importance of preparing disasters that our world may face tomorrow through strategies/policies aim to minimise uncontrolled development in hazardous areas. While vast majority natural-hazard risk-assessment frameworks have so far focused on static impacts associated with current conditions and/or are influenced historical context, some authors sought provide decision makers risk-quantification approaches can be used cultivate a sustainable future. Review documents these latter efforts, explicitly examining work has modelled quantified individual components comprise tomorrow's risk, i.e., affected change, exposure (e.g., terms population, land use, built environment), evolving physical vulnerabilities world's infrastructure. We end discussion challenges faced modellers determining hazards, constraints place decision-making abilities relevant stakeholders.

Language: Английский

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Europe

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1817 - 1928

Published: June 22, 2023

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Language: Английский

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Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(6), P. 592 - 599

Published: April 17, 2024

Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect annual temperature changes. However, roles precipitation, variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections models with empirical dose-response functions translating shifts in means variability, rainfall patterns precipitation into damage, we show that at +3

Language: Английский

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Challenges to Water Resource Management: The Role of Economic and Modeling Approaches

Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 610 - 610

Published: Feb. 18, 2024

The field of water management is continually changing. Water has been subject to external shocks in the form climate change and globalization. analysis disciplinary developments inter-disciplinary interactions. Are these well-documented literature? Initial observations interdisciplinary literature suggest that results are fragmented, implying a state-of-the-art review needed. This paper aims close such gap by reviewing recent economics address increasing perceptions scarcity looking first at changes supply quality then impacts on extremes. Among responses challenges, this identifies use patterns including co-managing from different sources, surface groundwater, reclaimed wastewater, desalinated water. Technological advancements also among resources challenges. challenges reflected internationally shared A surge scientific work identified international treaties as significant contributor management. reviews recently employed economic approaches, experimental economics, game theory, institutional valuation methods. And, finally, it explores modeling hydro-economic computable general equilibrium models, being used deal with

Language: Английский

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Comparison of LSTM and SVM methods through wavelet decomposition in drought forecasting

Earth Science Informatics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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A novel agricultural drought index based on multi-source remote sensing data and interpretable machine learning

Agricultural Water Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 308, P. 109303 - 109303

Published: Jan. 16, 2025

Language: Английский

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The Implications of Long-Term Local Climate Change for the Energy Performance of an nZEB Residential Building in Volos, Greece

Energies, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(5), P. 1032 - 1032

Published: Feb. 20, 2025

The construction of nearly zero-emission buildings in Europe and internationally has become mandatory by legislation. In parallel with these developments, the non-reversible increase ambient temperatures stresses buildings’ energy systems during summer months extreme temperatures, their severity varying according to local microclimate. These phenomena result an cooling loads. Thus, HVAC system’s performance needs more careful study, especially for residential sector wherever night effect is no longer capable releasing stress. present work, impact climate change on a building’s studied through simulations. future increases intensity duration heat waves assessed exploiting long-term forecasting capabilities transformer neural network model, trained existing meteorological data period 2007–2023. Based forecasted climatic conditions 2030 2040 produced this way, projected effects are assessed. forecast was aided 43 years temperature Europe, available ERA5 Copernicus program datasets. respective predictions electricity consumption wave episodes long durations point necessity special measures keep internal grid’s autonomy reduce unwanted interactions external grid. Moreover, further improvements nZEB building design improved would be critical success policy next two decades.

Language: Английский

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