Attributing changes in food insecurity to a changing climate DOI Creative Commons
Shouro Dasgupta, Elizabeth Robinson

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: March 18, 2022

It is generally accepted that climate change having a negative impact on food security. However, most of the literature variously focuses complex and many mechanisms linking stressors; links with production or productivity rather than security; future current effects. In contrast, we investigate extent to which changes in insecurity can be plausibly attributed change. We combine data for 83 countries from FAO experience scale (FIES) reanalysed ERA5-Land, use panel regression time-varying coefficients. This framework allows us estimate whether relationship between temperature anomaly changing over time. also control Human Development Index, drought measured by six-month Standardized Precipitation Index. Our empirical findings suggest every 1 [Formula: see text] anomaly, severe global has increased 1.4% (95% CI 1.3-1.47) 2014 but 1.64% 1.6-1.65) 2019. higher case moderate insecurity, increase resulting 1.58% 1.48-1.68) 2.14% 2.08-2.20) Thus, results show not only probability magnitude this counterfactual analysis suggests been responsible reversing some improvements security would otherwise have realised, highest Africa. both provides more evidence costs change, as such benefits mitigation, highlights importance targeted efficient policies reduce insecurity. These are likely need take into account local contexts, might include efforts crop yields, safety nets, behavioural programs promote household resilience.

Language: Английский

The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels DOI

Marina Romanello,

Claudia Di Napoli, Paul Drummond

et al.

The Lancet, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 400(10363), P. 1619 - 1654

Published: Oct. 25, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

1182
The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms DOI

Marina Romanello,

Claudia Di Napoli, Carole Green

et al.

The Lancet, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 402(10419), P. 2346 - 2394

Published: Nov. 14, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

519
Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022 DOI Creative Commons
Joan Ballester, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Raúl Fernando Méndez Turrubiates

et al.

Nature Medicine, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(7), P. 1857 - 1866

Published: July 1, 2023

Abstract Over 70,000 excess deaths occurred in Europe during the summer of 2003. The resulting societal awareness led to design and implementation adaptation strategies protect at-risk populations. We aimed quantify heat-related mortality burden 2022, hottest season on record Europe. analyzed Eurostat database, which includes 45,184,044 counts death from 823 contiguous regions 35 European countries, representing whole population over 543 million people. estimated 61,672 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 37,643–86,807) between 30 May 4 September 2022. Italy (18,010 deaths; 95% CI 13,793–22,225), Spain (11,324; 7,908–14,880) Germany (8,173; 5,374–11,018) had highest numbers, while (295 per million, 226–364), Greece (280, 201–355), (237, 166–312) Portugal (211, 162–255) rates. Relative population, we 56% more women than men, with higher rates men aged 0–64 (+41%) 65–79 (+14%) years, 80+ years (+27%). Our results call for a reevaluation strengthening existing heat surveillance platforms, prevention plans long-term strategies.

Language: Английский

Citations

479
Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective DOI Creative Commons
Ben Clarke, Friederike E. L. Otto, Rupert Stuart-Smith

et al.

Environmental Research Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 012001 - 012001

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and harms experienced on ground by people, property, nature. It therefore allows disentangling of different drivers from human-induced change hence provides valuable information adapt assess loss damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out reach. This due limitations in science, including capacity for studying types as well geographical heterogeneity both impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge influences five hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), impacts recent events each type, thus degree which various are attributable change. For instance, heat extremes have increased likelihood intensity worldwide with tens thousands deaths directly attributable. likely a significant underestimate limited availability lower- middle-income countries. Meanwhile, cyclone rainfall storm surge height individual across all basins. In North Atlantic basin, amplified that, combined, caused half trillion USD damages. At same time, severe droughts many parts world not To advance our understanding present-day developments several levels required. These include improving recording around world, coverage studies regions, using explore contributions non-climate impacts.

Language: Английский

Citations

344
The fundamental links between climate change and marine plastic pollution DOI Creative Commons
Helen Ford, Nia H. Jones, Andrew J. Davies

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 806, P. 150392 - 150392

Published: Sept. 17, 2021

Plastic pollution and climate change have commonly been treated as two separate issues sometimes are even seen competing. Here we present an alternative view that these fundamentally linked. Primarily, explore how plastic contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the beginning end of its life cycle. Secondly, show more extreme weather floods associated with change, will exacerbate spread in natural environment. Finally, both occur throughout marine environment, ecosystems species can be particularly vulnerable both, such coral reefs face disease through climate-driven increased global bleaching events. A Web Science search showed studies ocean often siloed, only 0.4% articles examining stressors simultaneously. We also identified a lack regional industry-specific cycle analysis data for comparisons relative GHG contributions by materials products. Overall, suggest rather than debate over importance or pollution, productive course would determine linking factors between identify solutions combat crises.

Language: Английский

Citations

306
Classic and exertional heatstroke DOI
Abderrezak Bouchama, Bisher Abuyassin, Cynthia Lehé

et al.

Nature Reviews Disease Primers, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Feb. 3, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

267
Estimating the cause-specific relative risks of non-optimal temperature on daily mortality: a two-part modelling approach applied to the Global Burden of Disease Study DOI Creative Commons
Katrin Burkart, Michael Bräuer, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin

et al.

The Lancet, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 398(10301), P. 685 - 697

Published: Aug. 1, 2021

Associations between high and low temperatures increases in mortality morbidity have been previously reported, yet no comprehensive assessment of disease burden has done. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global regional due non-optimal temperature exposure.In part 1 this study, linked deaths daily estimates from ERA5 reanalysis dataset. We modelled cause-specific relative risks for 176 individual causes death along 23 mean zones using a two-dimensional spline within Bayesian meta-regression framework. then calculated total temperature-attributable countries which data were available. In 2, applied all locations globally. combined exposure-response curves with gridded based on underlying Global Burden Diseases, Injuries, Risk Factors Study, years 1990-2019. Uncertainty components modelling chain, including risks, exposure, theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, defined as across included causes, was propagated posterior simulation 1000 draws.We 64·9 million International Classification Diseases-coded nine different countries, occurring Jan 1, 1980, Dec 31, 2016. 17 met inclusion criteria. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy myocarditis, hypertensive diabetes, chronic kidney lower respiratory infection, obstructive pulmonary showed J-shaped relationships temperature, whereas external (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, related disasters, mechanical, transport, other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically temperature. The levels varied by location year function cause composition. Estimates ranged 7·98 (95% uncertainty interval 7·10-8·85) per 100 000 population attributable fraction (PAF) 1·2% (1·1-1·4) Brazil 35·1 (29·9-40·3) PAF 4·7% (4·3-5·1) China. 2019, average cold-attributable exceeded heat-attributable Cold effects most pronounced China PAFs 4·3% (3·9-4·7) rates 32·0 (27·2-36·8) New Zealand 3·4% (2·9-3·9) 26·4 (22·1-30·2). Heat 0·4% (0·3-0·6) 3·25 (2·39-4·24) (0·3-0·5) 2·71 (2·15-3·37). When applying our framework globally, estimated that 1·69 (1·52-1·83) globally 2019. highest burdens observed south southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa Middle East, eastern central Europe, Asia.Acute heat cold can increase or decrease diverse set death. Although regions dominate, prevailing exhibit substantial far exceeding burden. Particularly, contributed strong impacts, but cardiorespiratory diseases metabolic could also be contributors. Changes both exposures composition drove changes over time. Steady are increasing concern health.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Language: Английский

Citations

266
Prediction and projection of heatwaves DOI
Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, Erich Fischer

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4(1), P. 36 - 50

Published: Dec. 13, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

202
Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries DOI Creative Commons
Barrak Alahmad, Haitham Khraishah, Dominic Royé

et al.

Circulation, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 147(1), P. 35 - 46

Published: Dec. 12, 2022

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones generally considered associations with total rather than cause-specific deaths.We used unified data collection protocols within Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database daily counts specific causes from 567 cities 27 countries across 5 continents overlapping periods ranging 1979 2019. City-specific ambient were obtained weather stations climate reanalysis models. To investigate mortality extreme hot cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models each city then mixed-effects meta-analytic framework pool individual estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles compared minimum location. Excess calculated for range days.The analyses included any (32 154 935), ischemic heart (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), failure (3 673 723), arrhythmia (670 859). At percentiles, heat (99th percentile) (1st associated higher risk dying cause, disease, stroke, as temperature, which least mortality. Across days (above 97.5th (below 2.5th accounted 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) 9.1 eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess every 1000 deaths, respectively. Heart was highest proportion 2.6 2.4-2.8) 12.8 12.2-13.1) respectively.Across large, multinational sample, exposure greater multiple common conditions. The intersections health need be thoroughly characterized present day-and especially under changing climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

194
The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change DOI Creative Commons

Rebecca Newman,

Ilan Noy

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Sept. 29, 2023

Extreme weather events lead to significant adverse societal costs. Event Attribution (EEA), a methodology that examines how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions had changed the occurrence of specific extreme events, allows us quantify climate change-induced component these We collect data from all available EEA studies, combine with on socio-economic costs and extrapolate for missing arrive at an estimate global attributable change in last twenty years. find US[Formula: see text] 143 billion per year is climatic change. The majority (63%), this due human loss life. Our results suggest frequently cited estimates economic arrived by using Integrated Assessment Models may be substantially underestimated.

Language: Английский

Citations

192