Destination Earth – A digital twin in support of climate services

Climate Services, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30, P. 100394 - 100394

Published: April 1, 2023

The European Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative aims at implementing a digital twin of the system. DestinE combines high-end physical with impact science enabled by novel technologies to create new, interactive information system in support decision-making. Climate change adaptation and disaster risk management for weather-extremes have been selected as priority targets first implementation phase. digital-twin paradigm prompts co-design experts users, whom is creating opportunities variety sectors, among others, renewable resources, water, food, energy, public health. From start initiative, build on interest existing communities invites them contribute design use cases that embrace ways sharing.

Language: Английский

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AI for climate impacts: applications in flood risk

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: June 8, 2023

Abstract In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the potential Artificial Intelligence (AI) to address global threat climate change. Here, we consider change applications, and review ability AI technologies better quantify change-induced hazards, impacts risks, key challenges this domain. We focus on three application areas: data-driven modeling, enabling uncertainty quantification, leveraging geospatial big data. For these, provide examples from flood-related applications illustrate advantages AI, comparison alternative methods, whilst also considering its limitations. conclude that by streamlining process translating weather data into actionable information, facilitated suitable technology framework, can play role building resilience.

Language: Английский

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The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High‐Frequency Model Output

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2023

Abstract Single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles are powerful tools to quantify the forced response, internal climate variability, and their evolution under global warming. Here, we present CMIP6 version of Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE CMIP6) with currently 30 realizations for historical period five emission scenarios. The power MPI‐GE goes beyond its predecessor ensemble by providing high‐frequency output, full range scenarios including highly policy‐relevant low SSP1‐1.9 SSP1‐2.6, opportunity compare complementary high‐resolution simulations. First, describe CMIP6, evaluate it observations reanalyzes MPI‐GE. Then, demonstrate six application examples how use better understand future extremes, inform about uncertainty in approaching Paris Agreement warming limits, combine artificial intelligence. For instance, allows us show that recently observed Siberian Pacific North American heatwaves would only avoid reaching 1–2 years return periods 2071–2100 scenarios, European precipitation extremes captured simulations, 3‐hourly output projects a decreasing activity storms mid‐latitude oceans. Further, is ideal estimates probabilities crossing limits irreducible introduced sufficiently be used infilling surface temperature

Language: Английский

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Future hydrological drought changes over the upper Yellow River basin: The role of climate change, land cover change and reservoir operation

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 617, P. 129128 - 129128

Published: Jan. 13, 2023

Language: Английский

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Global and Zonal‐Mean Hydrological Response to Early Eocene Warmth

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 38(6)

Published: June 1, 2023

Abstract Earth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response global warming, with a “wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier” anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data‐modeling approach reconstruct and zonal‐mean rainfall patterns during early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that mid‐ (30°–60°N/S) high‐latitudes (>60°N/S) thermodynamically dominated warming overall tropical band (0°–15°N/S) also conditions, several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone. However, latter not evident data. subtropics negative precipitation‐evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) models, but there surprisingly large inter‐model variability mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, find weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) reduction subtropical moisture divergence, leading increase MAP. These simulations agree more closely our new proxy‐derived reconstructions other key climate metrics imply was reduced divergence. If gradient even than suggested those circulation‐induced changes have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, subtropics. This highlights importance accurately reconstructing zonal when patterns.

Language: Английский

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Biodiversity and Climate Extremes: Known Interactions and Research Gaps

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(6)

Published: June 1, 2024

Abstract Climate extremes are on the rise. Impacts of extreme climate and weather events ecosystem services ultimately human well‐being can be partially attenuated by organismic, structural, functional diversity affected land surface. However, ongoing transformation terrestrial ecosystems through intensified exploitation management may put this buffering capacity at risk. Here, we summarize evidence that reductions in biodiversity destabilize functioning facing extremes. We then explore if impaired could, turn, exacerbate argue only a comprehensive approach, incorporating both ecological hydrometeorological perspectives, enables us to understand predict entire feedback system between altered This ambition, however, requires reformulation current research priorities emphasize bidirectional effects link ecology atmospheric processes.

Language: Английский

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Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(12), P. 7041 - 7062

Published: June 19, 2024

Abstract. Accelerated progress in climate modeling is urgently needed for proactive and effective change adaptation. The central challenge lies accurately representing processes that are small scale yet climatically important, such as turbulence cloud formation. These will not be explicitly resolvable the foreseeable future, necessitating use of parameterizations. We propose a balanced approach leverages strengths traditional process-based parameterizations contemporary artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to model subgrid-scale processes. This strategy employs AI derive data-driven closure functions from both observational simulated data, integrated within encode system knowledge conservation laws. In addition, increasing resolution resolve larger fraction small-scale can aid toward improved interpretable predictions outside observed distribution. However, currently feasible horizontal resolutions limited O(10 km) because higher would impede creation ensembles calibration uncertainty quantification, sampling atmospheric oceanic internal variability, broadly exploring quantifying risks. By synergizing decades scientific development with advanced techniques, our aims significantly boost accuracy, interpretability, trustworthiness predictions.

Language: Английский

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Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 2007 - 2032

Published: April 29, 2024

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (“k-scale”). However, surface parameters for land (LSMs) within ESMs running at k-scale typically derived from coarse-resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global with resolution 1 km multiple years 2001 2020, utilizing latest most accurate available Specifically, datasets consist related use cover, vegetation, soil, topography. Differences between newly developed conventional emphasize their potential higher accuracy due incorporation advanced data sources. To demonstrate capability these parameters, we conducted simulations using E3SM Land Model version 2 (ELM2) over contiguous United States. Our results that contribute significant spatial heterogeneity in ELM2 soil moisture, latent heat, emitted longwave radiation, absorbed shortwave radiation. On average, about 31 % 54 information is lost by upscaling 12 resolution. Using eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) methods, influential factors driving variability loss were identified, highlighting substantial impact various as well mean climate conditions. The comparison against four benchmark indicates ELM generally performs simulating moisture energy fluxes. tailored meet emerging needs LSM ESM modeling implications our understanding water, carbon, cycles under change. publicly https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10815170 (Li et al., 2024).

Language: Английский

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Climate sensitivity and relative humidity changes in global storm-resolving model simulations of climate change

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(26)

Published: June 28, 2024

The climate simulation frontier of a global storm-resolving model (GSRM; or

Language: Английский

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Past, present and future rainfall erosivity in central Europe based on convection-permitting climate simulations

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(1), P. 87 - 102

Published: Jan. 5, 2024

Abstract. Heavy rainfall is the main driver of soil erosion by water, which a threat to and water resources across globe. As consequence climate change, precipitation – especially extreme increasing in warmer world, leading an increase erosivity. However, conventional global models struggle represent rain events cannot provide data at high spatiotemporal resolution that needed for accurate estimation future Convection-permitting simulations (CPSs), on other hand, high-resolution better representation events, but they are mostly limited relatively small spatial extents short time periods. Here, we present, first time, erosivity large modeling domain such as central Europe based CPS generated with regional model COSMO-CLM using Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We calculated past (1971–2000), present (2001–2019), near (2031–2060) far (2071–2100). Our results showed increases can be up 84 % region's river basins. These much higher than previously estimated regression mean annual precipitation. conclude despite remaining limitations, CPSs have enormous currently unexploited potential impact studies erosion. Thus, community should closely follow recent advances take advantage new studies.

Language: Английский

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