The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Feb. 9, 2023

In late June 2021 a heatwave of unprecedented magnitude impacted the Pacific Northwest region Canada and United States. Many locations broke all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C, Canadian national record was broken 4.6 with new 49.6 °C. Here, we provide comprehensive summary this event its impacts. Upstream diabatic heating played key role in anomaly. Weather forecasts provided advanced notice event, while sub-seasonal showed an increased likelihood heat extreme lead times 10-20 days. The impacts were catastrophic, including hundreds attributable deaths across Northwest, mass-mortalities marine life, reduced crop fruit yields, river flooding from rapid snow glacier melt, substantial increase wildfires-the latter contributing to landslides months following. These examples can learn vivid depiction how climate change be so devastating.

Language: Английский

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Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: April 14, 2023

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising different variables across space time, here we illustrate that robust analyses events - such as frequency uncertainty analysis under present-day future conditions, attribution to change, exploration low-probability-high-impact require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required is much larger than needed for univariate extremes. We demonstrate Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations multiple models, provide hundreds thousands years crucial advancing our assessments constructing model projections. Combining SMILEs an improved physical understanding will ultimately practitioners stakeholders best available information risks.

Language: Английский

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Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: March 27, 2023

During summer 2021, Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave with record-breaking high temperatures associated a strong anomalous high-pressure system, i.e., heat dome. Here, we use flow analog method and find that the dome over WNA can explain half of magnitude temperature. The intensities hot extremes similar dome-like atmospheric circulations increase faster than background global warming in both historical change future projection. Such relationship between mean temperature be partly explained by soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. probability 2021-like is projected to due warming, enhanced feedback weak but still significantly increased circulation. population exposure such will also increase. Limiting 1.5 °C instead 2 (3 °C) would lead avoided impact 53% (89%) under RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario.

Language: Английский

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How Unexpected Was the 2022 Summertime Heat Extremes in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River?

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 50(16)

Published: Aug. 10, 2023

Abstract The 2022 heatwave in China featured record‐shattering high temperatures, raising questions about its origin and possible link to global warming. Here we show that the maximum temperature anomalies over Central reached 13.1°C summer of 2022, which is ∼4.2σ above 1981–2010 mean with a return period tens thousands years. Our results suggested persistent high‐pressure anomaly associated extreme likely resulted mainly from internal variability, although anthropogenic warming has increased probability such heatwaves. We also estimate 2022‐like becomes six seven times more under conditions when compared stochastic circulation states. Due shift toward warmer temperatures flattening distribution function, rare heatwaves are projected become much common at level 4°C, occurring once every 8.5

Language: Английский

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Unprecedented 21st century heat across the Pacific Northwest of North America

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Feb. 17, 2023

Abstract Extreme summer temperatures are increasingly common across the Northern Hemisphere and inflict severe socioeconomic biological consequences. In 2021, Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) experienced a 2-week-long extreme heatwave, which contributed to record-breaking temperatures. Here, we use tree-ring records show that in as well rate summertime warming during last several decades, unprecedented within context millennium for PNW. absence committed efforts curtail anthropogenic emissions below intermediate levels (SSP2–4.5), climate model projections indicate rapidly increasing risk PNW regularly experiencing 2021-like temperatures, with 50% chance yearly occurrence by 2050. The 2021 provide benchmark impetus communities historically temperate climates account heat-related impacts change adaptation strategies.

Language: Английский

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Record-shattering 2023 Spring heatwave in western Mediterranean amplified by long-term drought

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: Jan. 23, 2024

Abstract The western Mediterranean region experienced an exceptional and unprecedented early heatwave in April 2023. By shattering historical temperature records, especially the Iberian Peninsula northwestern Africa, this extreme offers a stark illustration of drought–heatwave compound event. Here, we investigate soil moisture–temperature interactions that underpinned event, using most up-to-date observations robust statistical analysis. Our results reveal moisture deficit preconditions, concurring with strong subtropical ridge as synoptic driver, had key contribution to amplification duration record-breaking heatwave. Specifically, estimate records would have been 4.53 times less likely 2.19 °C lower soils wet. These findings indicate content may be crucial variable for seasonal forecasting HW other climate regimes are already suffering increment frequency events.

Language: Английский

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Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(4)

Published: Jan. 24, 2024

Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, lack independent spatial reconstructions both soil moisture temperature limits potential to identify these events in past place them a long-term context. We develop Western American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), data-independent 0.5° gridded reconstruction summer maximum temperatures back 16th century. Our evaluation WNATA with existing hydroclimate reveals an increasing association between recent decades, relative five centuries. The synthesis paleo-reconstructions indicates that amplification modern WNA megadrought by frequency extent compound dry conditions 21st are likely unprecedented since at least

Language: Английский

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Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1), P. 35 - 50

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Language: Английский

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Impacts of Land Use Characteristics on Extreme Heat Events: Insights from Explainable Machine Learning Model

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 106139 - 106139

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Sept. 30, 2023

Abstract Efforts to diagnose the risks of a changing climate often rely on downscaled and bias-corrected information, making it important understand uncertainties potential biases this approach. Here, we perform variance decomposition partition uncertainty in global projections quantify relative importance downscaling bias-correction. We analyze simple metrics such as annual temperature precipitation averages, well several indices extremes. find that bias-correction contribute substantial local decision-relevant outcomes, though our results are strongly heterogeneous across space, time, metrics. Our can provide guidance impact modelers decision-makers regarding associated with when performing local-scale analyses, neglecting account for these may risk overconfidence full range possible futures.

Language: Английский

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