Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: Jan. 20, 2025

The latest climate models project widely varying magnitudes of future extreme precipitation changes, thus impeding effective adaptation planning. Many observational constraints have been proposed to reduce the uncertainty these projections at global sub-continental scales, but generally requires detailed, local scale information. Here, we present a temperature-based adaptative emergent constraint strategy combined with data aggregation that reduces error variance projected end-of-century changes in annual extremes daily under high emissions scenario by >20% across most areas world. These improved could benefit nearly 90% world's population permitting better impact assessment and planning levels. Our physically motivated strategy, which considers thermodynamic dynamic components change, exploits link between warming component precipitation. Rigorous cross-validation provides strong evidence its reliability constraining projections. This study presents more accurate scales constrained past observations using an approach.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal evolution of drought status and its driving factors attribution in China

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 958, P. 178131 - 178131

Published: Dec. 19, 2024

Language: Английский

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Constraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(9)

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

The warming climate is creating increased levels of risk because changes to the hazards which human and natural systems are exposed. Projections how those will change affected by uncertainties in sensitivity models, among other factors. While level-of-global-warming approach can circumvent model some applications, practitioners faced with specific adaptation responsibilities often find such projections difficult use they generally require time-oriented information. Earth system following specified emissions scenarios can, however, be constrained applying observationally yield more reliable for adaption planning implementation. This also allows individual groups produce consistent comparable assessments multifaceted impacts causal mechanisms, thereby benefiting at national international that provide science basis action.

Language: Английский

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Climate risks, multi-tier medical insurance systems, and health inequality: evidence from China’s middle-aged and elderly populations

BMC Health Services Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: April 1, 2025

Against the backdrop of increasing population aging, uncertainty and irreversibility climate change have a significant impact on health healthcare burden elderly. However, it remains uncertain whether multi-tiered medical insurance system disproportionately influences impacts risks. Using data from China Health Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2011 to 2020, matched with urban risk variables, we employ multi-dimensional panel fixed effects model an instrumental variable examine risks middle-aged elderly, while also investigating unequal system. Climate significantly worsened self-reported elderly (β = 0.073, P 0.089), increased both total costs 2.570, 0.012) out-of-pocket expenses 2.652, 0.003). Notably, increases in hospitalization 0.721, 0.004) 0.706, 0.036) are particularly prominent. The current results costs. Specifically, employee commercial effectively improve outcomes individuals affected by Urban residents' reduces for whereas new rural cooperative shows no mitigating effect. Additionally, there is evidence suggest that integration resident can reduce populations caused Our long-term projections indicate that, under SSP245 SSP585 scenarios, increase due irreversible. restrictive policies would yield benefits, potentially reducing per capita nearly 50%. decentralized multi-tier leads inequality study emphasizes critical role reforming existing social implementing protect populations.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Gradients of the Urban Heat Island Effect in Subtropical Furnace Megacity

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(7), P. 3238 - 3238

Published: April 5, 2025

Urban heat island (UHI) effect significantly influences the urban sustainability and health of cities varies seasonally. However, spring autumn have received less attention. Furthermore, research on long-term seasonal UHI changes impacts is insufficient. This study examines spatiotemporal dynamics gradient characteristics in spring, summer, autumn, winter Changsha, a typical subtropical “furnace city” from 2006 to 2022. (1) Spatiotemporal dynamics: The high-temperature (relatively zone zone) range expands most least autumn. Additionally, migrates northward within area, proximity core results multiple effects. (2) Gradient characteristics: proportion decreases varying degrees 5 km central point, but increases 6–8 11–13 gradients, especially 8 aggregation index (AI), contagion (CONTAG), largest patch (LPI) decreased, with patches more affected by these metrics Overall, this offers new insights into effects development UHI, which are crucial for addressing climate change, promoting sustainability, improving human well-being.

Language: Английский

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Trends of energy-related CO2 emissions from non-ferrous metal smelting in China: Multi-factor analysis and emission reduction potential

Energy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 136254 - 136254

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic aerosols to recent summer warming over western Europe

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(5)

Published: April 28, 2025

Language: Английский

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Projecting Multiscale River Flood Changes Across Japan at +2°C and +4°C Climates

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(5)

Published: May 1, 2025

Abstract This study addresses computational challenges in high‐resolution, large‐domain, process‐based flood quantile estimation, focusing on Japan's future risks at 150 m resolution. Using the Aggregating Grid Event (AGE) method, Rainfall‐Runoff‐Inundation (RRI) model, and Peaks‐Over‐Threshold (POT) approach, it incorporates 2,160‐year precipitation data from a 5‐km dynamically downscaled ensemble (d4PDF DDSJP) across three climate stages (historical, +2°C, +4°C). The AGE method identified critical events for estimations POT was employed to estimate 100‐year discharge (Q100) over 2.2 million river grid cells. Key findings include: (a) Nationwide, is projected increase 1.16 times (+2°C) 1.37 (+4°C), with equivalent return periods reduced 45 years 23 (+4°C). Northern regions (Hokkaido Tohoku) are particularly climate‐sensitive, exceeding national averages Q100 increases. (b) Small basins transition zones plains mountains exhibit higher ratios, necessitating targeted prevention measures. (c) Flash expected rise, most seeing flashiness increases of 10% 20% Southern Japan faces further flash intensification, while under +4°C stage anticipates emerging related floods. underscores urgency adaptive management strategies mitigate increasing risks, offering foundation informed policymaking public‐engaged mitigation. Simulation opens pathways research cascading disaster scenarios +2°C climates.

Language: Английский

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Should we think of observationally constrained multidecade climate projections as predictions?

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(20)

Published: May 16, 2025

Empirical evidence indicates that the range of model-projected future warming can be successfully narrowed by conditioning projected on past observed warming. We demonstrate projections conditioned entire instrumental annual surface temperature record are sufficiently high quality and should considered as long-term predictions rather than merely projections. support this view considering skill predicted 20- 50-year lead changes under Shared Economic Pathway (SSP)1-2.6 SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios in climates different sensitivities. Using climate model simulations, we show adjusting raw multimodel with Kriging for Climate Change (KCC) method eliminates most biases reduces uncertainty irrespective sensitivity being considered. Simpler methods, or using only more recent part record, provide less effective constraints. The high-skill obtained via KCC have a serious place informing global policies.

Language: Английский

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Study on the Effect of Cyclic Loading on the Geomechanics of Sandstone Reservoirs in Gas Storage

International Journal of Chemical Engineering, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2024(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

In the implementation process of carbon capture and storage (CCS), geomechanical problems arising from cyclic injection dioxide into formation cannot be ignored. To clarify influence loading on geomechanics properties reservoir rocks, tests were carried out rocks in sandstone reservoirs with RTR‐2000 Rock Mechanics Test System, evolution compressive strength, elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio parameters was analyzed, which revealed law deterioration damage under loading. The results show that same load, when number cycles is increased to a certain degree, peak strength small. As increases, modulus elasticity rock appears increasing then decreasing, whereas rapid increase slow occur cycles. Under cycles, core gradually decreased maximum stress. When load smaller than yield stress core, effect small, larger stress, significantly. With showed tendency decrease, had decreasing overall degree change

Language: Английский

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