A double-edged aspect of basin entropy for predicting biodiversity in spatial rock–paper–scissors games

Chaos Solitons & Fractals, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 197, P. 116465 - 116465

Published: April 26, 2025

Language: Английский

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Marine and freshwater regime changes impact a community of migratory Pacific salmonids in decline

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 28(1), P. 72 - 85

Published: Oct. 20, 2021

Marine and freshwater ecosystems are increasingly at risk of large cascading changes from multiple human activities (termed "regime shifts"), which can impact population productivity, resilience, ecosystem structure. Pacific salmon exhibit persistent fluctuations in their dynamics driven by combinations intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) extrinsic factors changes, species interactions). In recent years, many have declined due to regime shifts but clear understanding the processes driving these remains elusive. Here, we unpacked role dependence, trends, stochasticity on productivity regimes for a community five anadromous salmonids (Steelhead, Coho Salmon, Pink Dolly Varden, Coastal Cutthroat Trout) across rich 40-year time-series. We used Bayesian multivariate state-space model examine whether had similarly occurred explored marine or associated with those shifts. Overall, identified three regimes: an early (1976-1990), compensatory (1991-2009), declining (since 2010) where declines were observed Steelhead, Trout, intermediate no change Salmon. These cumulative effects life cycle. For example, increased seal densities ocean competition lower adult survival Steelhead. Watershed logging also intensified over past 40 years was (all else equal) ≥97% Cutthroat, Coho. played approximately equal roles explaining trends total productivity. Collectively, changing environments limited juvenile production lowered future returns. results reveal how jointly shape among ecological communities, like salmon, consequences resilience.

Language: Английский

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Catastrophic bifurcation in the dynamics of a threatened bird community triggered by a planetary-scale environmental perturbation

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 291, P. 110466 - 110466

Published: Feb. 13, 2024

Ecological modeling has been traditionally dominated by a focus on the asymptotic behaviour, but transient dynamics can have profound effect species and community persistence. We show strong non-stationary coupling of ecological drivers in one world's major Mediterranean ecosystems, Doñana wetlands, which is currently threatened many stressors. Recurrent changes precipitation fluctuations triggered sudden reorganizations trends population guild ten wintering waterfowl during 36-year period. An anomalously dry cold period Northern Hemisphere, induced volcanic eruption Mt. Pinatubo 1991, prompted an abrupt shift to alternative regime fluctuating densities. Most did not recover previous values even though local weather patterns large-scale climatic conditions returned normal values. Although dynamical stability similar both regimes, structural declined: probability feasibility dropped across time due depressed densities at equilibrium. A stochastic cusp catastrophe model fitted series data suggests that spatio-temporal persistence areas, coupled with warm wet breeding grounds, modulated hysteresis through behavioral shifts sites. Our study provides empirical evidence for existence catastrophic bifurcation tipping point imperiled vertebrate community, highlighting relevance history multi-stability explaining current biological conservation.

Language: Английский

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First Passage Times of Long Transient Dynamics in Ecology

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 86(4)

Published: Feb. 23, 2024

Language: Английский

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Modeling tumors as complex ecosystems

iScience, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 27(9), P. 110699 - 110699

Published: Aug. 10, 2024

Many cancers resist therapeutic intervention. This is fundamentally related to intratumor heterogeneity: multiple cell populations, each with different phenotypic signatures, coexist within a tumor and its metastases. Like species in an ecosystem, cancer populations are intertwined complex network of ecological interactions. Most mathematical models ecology, however, cannot account for such diversity or predict consequences. Here, we propose that the generalized Lotka-Volterra model (GLV), standard tool describe species-rich communities, provides suitable framework ecology heterogeneous tumors. We develop GLV growth discuss how emerging properties provide new understanding disease. potential extensions their application plasticity, cancer-immune interactions, metastatic growth. Our work outlines set questions road map further research ecology.

Language: Английский

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