Climate Models Underestimate Global Decreases in High‐Cloud Amount With Warming DOI Creative Commons
Sarah Wilson Kemsley, Peer Nowack, Paulo Ceppi

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(7)

Published: April 9, 2025

Abstract Cloud feedback has prevailed as a leading source of uncertainty in climate model projections under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Cloud‐controlling factor (CCF) analysis is an approach used to observationally constrain cloud feedback, and subsequently the sensitivity. Although high clouds contribute significantly toward uncertainty, they have received comparatively little attention CCF other observational analyses. Here we use for first time ‐cloud radiative focusing on amount component owing its dominant contribution high‐cloud feedback. Globally, observations indicate larger decreases cloudiness than state‐of‐the‐art models suggest. In fact, half 16 considered here predict feedbacks inconsistent with observations, likely due misrepresenting stability iris mechanism. Despite suggested strong warming, point near‐neutral net almost canceling longwave shortwave contributions.

Language: Английский

Climate Models Underestimate Global Decreases in High‐Cloud Amount With Warming DOI Creative Commons
Sarah Wilson Kemsley, Peer Nowack, Paulo Ceppi

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(7)

Published: April 9, 2025

Abstract Cloud feedback has prevailed as a leading source of uncertainty in climate model projections under increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Cloud‐controlling factor (CCF) analysis is an approach used to observationally constrain cloud feedback, and subsequently the sensitivity. Although high clouds contribute significantly toward uncertainty, they have received comparatively little attention CCF other observational analyses. Here we use for first time ‐cloud radiative focusing on amount component owing its dominant contribution high‐cloud feedback. Globally, observations indicate larger decreases cloudiness than state‐of‐the‐art models suggest. In fact, half 16 considered here predict feedbacks inconsistent with observations, likely due misrepresenting stability iris mechanism. Despite suggested strong warming, point near‐neutral net almost canceling longwave shortwave contributions.

Language: Английский

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