Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 2295 - 2327

Published: June 6, 2023

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC), including first global stocktake Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence system. However, successive IPCC reports published intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, Earth's energy imbalance, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open data, science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000192, Smith et al., 2023a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show human-induced reached 1.14 [0.9 1.4] ∘C averaged over 2013–2022 decade 1.26 [1.0 1.6] 2022. Over period, has been increasing unprecedented rate 0.2 per decade. This high caused a combination being all-time 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increases have slowed, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change climate.

Language: Английский

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Recent intensification of wetland methane feedback

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(5), P. 430 - 433

Published: March 20, 2023

Abstract The positive response of wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions to climate change is an important yet uncertain Earth-system feedback that amplifies atmospheric CH concentrations. Here, using a model, we report intensified during 2000–2021, corresponding with 2020 and 2021 being exceptional years growth. Our results highlight the need for sustained monitoring observations global fluxes document emerging trends, variability underlying drivers.

Language: Английский

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Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(6), P. 2625 - 2658

Published: June 4, 2024

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence global system. However, successive IPCC reports published at intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used in Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open-data, open-science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show that, 2014–2023 decade average, observed was 1.19 [1.06 1.30] °C, which [1.0 1.4] °C human-induced. For single-year human-induced reached 1.31 [1.1 1.7] 2023 relative 1850–1900. best estimate below 2023-observed record 1.43 [1.32 1.53] indicating a substantial contribution internal variability record. Human-induced has been increasing rate that unprecedented instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] per over 2014–2023. This high caused combination net being persistent 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increase CO2 slowed compared 2000s, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change some presented here.

Language: Английский

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The epithelial–mesenchymal plasticity landscape: principles of design and mechanisms of regulation

Nature Reviews Genetics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 24(9), P. 590 - 609

Published: May 11, 2023

Language: Английский

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Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane's Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(8)

Published: July 15, 2023

Abstract Atmospheric methane's rapid growth from late 2006 is unprecedented in the observational record. Assessment of atmospheric methane data attributes a large fraction this to increased natural emissions over tropics, which appear be responding changes anthropogenic climate forcing. Isotopically lighter measurements are consistent with recent being mainly driven by an increase microbial sources, particularly wetlands. The global budget currently disequilibrium and new inputs as yet poorly quantified. Although agriculture waste sources have between 2022 perhaps 35 Tg/yr, wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr net may been biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks change. A model comparison shows that comparable or greater scale speed than isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It remains possible current within range Holocene variability, but it also indicate large‐scale reorganization biosphere under way.

Language: Английский

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Methane emissions are predominantly responsible for record-breaking atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 and 2021

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(8), P. 4863 - 4880

Published: April 25, 2023

Abstract. The global atmospheric methane growth rates reported by NOAA for 2020 and 2021 are the largest since systematic measurements began in 1983. To explore underlying reasons these anomalous rates, we use newly available data from Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to estimate surface emissions. Relative baseline values 2019, find that a significant increase emissions of 27.0 ± 11.3 20.8 11.4 Tg is needed reproduce observed 2021, respectively, assuming fixed climatological OH. We see annual increases during over Eastern Africa (14 3 Tg), tropical Asia (3 4 South America (5 temperate Eurasia reductions China (−6 Tg) India (−2 Tg). comparable emission changes relative except where increased 9 Tg, North 5 2 Tg. elevated contributions saw western half (−5 substantially reduced compared our 2019 baseline. statistically positive correlations between anomalies groundwater, consistent with recent studies have highlighted growing role microbial sources tropics. Emission expected due Covid-19 lockdown but continued which do not currently understand. investigate OH concentrations on 2020–2021, extended inversion state vector include monthly scaling factors six latitude bands. During 2020, tropospheric 1.4 1.7 % corresponding value. revised posteriori decreased 34 17.9 13.2 value inferred using values, sensitivity tests climatology counter statement 66 was emissions, particularly regions. Regional flux differences joint methane–OH typically much smaller than 10 %. amount representing about year. Therefore, conclude most contribution levels

Language: Английский

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Trends in atmospheric methane concentrations since 1990 were driven and modified by anthropogenic emissions

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: Sept. 8, 2023

Abstract The atmospheric methane trend is not fully understood. Here we investigate the role of main sink, natural source, and anthropogenic emissions on growth rate over last three decades using numerical models emission inventories. We find that long-term driven by increased emissions, while wetland show large variability can modify trend. influence hydroxyl radical, through nitrogen oxides carbon monoxide has modified contributed to stabilization from 2000 2007. radical increase prior this period might have decline in isotopic ratio after 2007 due time dependent response radical. Emission reductions COVID-19 restrictions via possibly approximately two thirds 2019 2020.

Language: Английский

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Boreal–Arctic wetland methane emissions modulated by warming and vegetation activity

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 282 - 288

Published: Feb. 14, 2024

Abstract Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions over the Boreal–Arctic region are vulnerable to climate change and linked feedbacks, yet understanding of their long-term dynamics remains uncertain. Here, we upscaled analysed two decades (2002–2021) wetland CH emissions, representing an unprecedented compilation eddy covariance chamber observations. We found a robust increasing trend (+8.9%) with strong inter-annual variability. The majority emission increases occurred in early summer (June July) were mainly driven by warming (52.3%) ecosystem productivity (40.7%). Moreover, 2 °C temperature anomaly 2016 led highest recorded annual (22.3 Tg yr −1 this region, primarily high Western Siberian lowlands. However, current-generation models from Global Carbon Project failed capture magnitude trend, may bias estimates future amplified greening.

Language: Английский

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Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(3)

Published: Feb. 26, 2024

Abstract Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include identification of vast stocks, development new pan‐Arctic maps, an increase terrestrial measurement sites for CO 2 and methane fluxes, important factors affecting cycling, including vegetation changes, periods soil freezing thawing, wildfire, other disturbance events. Process‐based modeling studies now key elements cycling advances statistical inverse enhance understanding region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses model outputs, is likely a wetland source small ecosystem sink with lower net uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, strongest was located western Canada (median: −52 g m −2 y −1 ) smallest sinks Alaska, Canadian tundra, Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 ). Eurasian regions had largest median fluxes (16–18 CH 4 Quantifying regional scale balance remains challenging because high spatial temporal variability relatively low density observations. More accurate require: (a) better maps characterizing wetlands dynamics disturbances, abrupt thaw; (b) establishment year‐round flux underrepresented areas; (c) improved models that represent cycle dynamics, non‐growing season emissions effects.

Language: Английский

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Reactive aldehyde chemistry explains the missing source of hydroxyl radicals

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Feb. 22, 2024

Abstract Hydroxyl radicals (OH) determine the tropospheric self-cleansing capacity, thus regulating air quality and climate. However, state-of-the-art mechanisms still underestimate OH at low nitrogen oxide high volatile organic compound regimes even considering latest isoprene chemistry. Here we propose that reactive aldehyde chemistry, especially autoxidation of carbonyl peroxy (R(CO)O 2 ) derived from higher aldehydes, is a noteworthy regeneration mechanism overwhelms contribution autoxidation, latter has been proved to largely contribute missing source under condition. As diagnosed by quantum chemical calculations, R(CO)O undergo fast H-migration produce unsaturated hydroperoxyl-carbonyls generate through rapid photolysis. This chemistry could explain almost all unknown sources in areas rich both natural anthropogenic emissions warm seasons, may increasingly impact global capacity future society carbon neutrality scenarios.

Language: Английский

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