Releasing global forests from human management: How much more carbon could be stored?

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 380(6646), P. 749 - 753

Published: May 18, 2023

Carbon storage in forests is a cornerstone of policy-making to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C. However, the impact management (for example, harvesting) on carbon budget remains poorly quantified. We integrated maps forest biomass and with machine learning show that by removing human intervention, under current climatic conditions dioxide (CO2) concentration, existing could increase their aboveground up 44.1 (error range: 21.0 63.0) petagrams carbon. This an 15 16% over levels, equating about 4 years anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Therefore, without strong reductions emissions, this strategy holds low mitigation potential, sink should be preserved offset residual emissions rather than compensate for present levels.

Language: Английский

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EU-Trees4F, a dataset on the future distribution of European tree species

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Feb. 3, 2022

Abstract We present “ EU-Trees4F ”, a dataset of current and future potential distributions 67 tree species in Europe at 10 km spatial resolution. provide both climatically suitable areas occupancy the distribution expected under scenario natural dispersal for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5) three time steps (2035, 2065, 2095). Also, we version where ranges are limited by land use. These data-driven projections were made using an ensemble model calibrated EU-Forest, comprehensive occurrences Europe, driven seven bioclimatic parameters derived from EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations, soil parameters. can benefit various research fields, including forestry, biodiversity, ecosystem services, bio-economy. Possible applications include calibration or benchmarking dynamic vegetation models, informing forest adaptation strategies based on assisted migration. Given multiple European policy initiatives related to forests, this represents timely valuable resource support policymaking.

Language: Английский

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Forest tree species distribution for Europe 2000–2020: mapping potential and realized distributions using spatiotemporal machine learning

PeerJ, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10, P. e13728 - e13728

Published: July 25, 2022

This article describes a data-driven framework based on spatiotemporal machine learning to produce distribution maps for 16 tree species ( Abies alba Mill., Castanea sativa Corylus avellana L., Fagus sylvatica Olea europaea Picea abies L. H. Karst., Pinus halepensis nigra J. F. Arnold, pinea sylvestris Prunus avium Quercus cerris ilex robur suber and Salix caprea L.) at high spatial resolution (30 m). Tree occurrence data total of three million points was used train different algorithms: random forest, gradient-boosted trees, generalized linear models, k-nearest neighbors, CART an artificial neural network. A stack 305 coarse covariates representing spectral reflectance, biophysical conditions biotic competition as predictors realized distributions, while potential modelled with environmental only. Logloss computing time were select the best algorithms tune ensemble model stacking logistic regressor meta-learner. An trained each species: probability uncertainty produced using window 4 years six per species, distributions only one map produced. Results cross validation show that consistently outperformed or performed good individual in both tasks, models achieving higher predictive performances (TSS = 0.898, R 2 logloss 0.857) than ones average 0.874, 0.839). Ensemble Q. achieved 0.968, 0.952) 0.959, 0.949) distribution, P. 0.731, 0.785, 0.585, 0.670, respectively, distribution) 0.658, 0.686, 0.623, 0.664) worst. Importance predictor variables differed across green band summer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) fall diffuse irradiation precipitation driest quarter (BIO17) being most frequent important distribution. On average, fine-resolution (250 m) +6.5%, +7.5%). The shows how combining continuous consistent Earth Observation series state art can be derive dynamic maps. predictions quantify temporal trends forest degradation composition change.

Language: Английский

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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of the Dominant Tree Species in Greece

Plants, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 11(12), P. 1616 - 1616

Published: June 20, 2022

Climate change is affecting species distribution and ecosystem form function. Forests provide a range of services, understanding their vulnerability to climate important for designing effective adaptation strategies. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used derive habitat suitability maps under current conditions project shifts change. In this study, we model the future dominant tree in Greece (Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus brutia, halepensis, nigra, Quercus ilex, pubescens, frainetto Fagus sylvatica), based on species-specific presence data from EU-Forest database, enhanced with that currently under-represented terms occurrence points. By including these additional data, areas relatively drier some study were included SDM development, yielding potentially lower conditions. SDMs developed each taxon using soil at resolution ~1 km2. Model performance was assessed found adequately simulate potential distributions. Subsequently, models SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5 scenarios 2041-2070 2071-2100 time periods. Under scenarios, reduction habitat-suitable predicted most species, higher elevation taxa experiencing more pronounced shrinkages. An exception endemic A. cephalonica its sister which, although mid high elevations, seem able maintain scenarios. Our findings suggest could significantly affect dynamics forest ecosystems Greece, ecological, economic social implications, thus adequate mitigation measures should be implemented.

Language: Английский

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Drought and heat reduce forest carbon uptake

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Oct. 6, 2023

Climate extremes threaten the land carbon sink and it is important to understand their impact in a changing climate. A recent study provides new insights on reduced forest uptake during severe 2022 drought heatwave across Europe.

Language: Английский

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Assisted tree migration can reduce but not avert the decline of forest ecosystem services in Europe

Global Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 80, P. 102676 - 102676

Published: April 18, 2023

Language: Английский

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Impacts of climate change on allergenic pollen production: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 349, P. 109948 - 109948

Published: March 5, 2024

Language: Английский

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Projected loss of brown macroalgae and seagrasses with global environmental change

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: June 24, 2024

Abstract Although many studies predict extensive future biodiversity loss and redistribution in the terrestrial realm, changes marine remain relatively unexplored. In this work, we model global shifts one of most important functional groups—ecosystem-structuring macrophytes—and substantial end-of-century change. By modelling distribution 207 brown macroalgae seagrass species at high temporal spatial resolution under different climate-change projections, estimate that by 2100, local macrophyte diversity will decline 3–4% on average, with 17 to 22% localities losing least 10% their species. The current range macrophytes be eroded 5–6%, highly suitable habitat substantially reduced globally (78–96%). Global shift among regions, a potential for expansion polar regions.

Language: Английский

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Global Warming Reshapes European Pyroregions

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(5)

Published: May 1, 2023

Abstract Wildland fire is expected to increase in response global warming, yet little known about future changes regimes Europe. Here, we developed a pyrogeography based on statistical models better understand how warming reshapes across the continent. We identified five large‐scale pyroregions with different levels of area burned, frequency, intensity, length period, size distribution, and seasonality. All other things being equal, was found alter distribution these pyroregions, an expansion most prone ranging respectively from 50% 130% under 2° 4°C scenarios. Our estimates indicate strong amplification parts southern Europe subsequent shift toward new regimes, implying substantial socio‐ecological impacts absence mitigation or adaptation measures.

Language: Английский

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The missing part of the past, current, and future distribution model of Quercus ilex L.: the eastern edge

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. 90 - 99

Published: March 22, 2024

Language: Английский

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