Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya DOI Creative Commons
Cameron Nosrat, Jonathan Altamirano, Assaf Anyamba

et al.

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. e0009182 - e0009182

Published: March 18, 2021

Climate change and variability influence temperature rainfall, which impact vector abundance the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. is projected to increase frequency intensity extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability affect populations via a variety biological processes thus ability mosquitoes effectively transmit disease. However, effect droughts, floods, heat waves, cold waves not well understood. Using vector, climate, data collected between 2013 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims elucidate rainfall on mosquito risk arboviral infections. To define periods land surface (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for 2000–2019 LST) across four locations Kenya. We classified events upper lower 10% these LST or deviations. Monthly Ae . was recorded Kenya using trapping methods. Blood samples were also children with febrile illness presenting field sites tested virus an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) polymerase chain reaction (PCR). found that eggs adults significantly more abundant one month following abnormally wet month. The relationship follows non-linear association. Our findings suggest early warnings targeted interventions during abnormal temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute reductions viral

Language: Английский

If Precipitation Extremes Are Increasing, Why Aren't Floods? DOI Open Access
Ashish Sharma, Conrad Wasko, Dennis P. Lettenmaier

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 54(11), P. 8545 - 8551

Published: Nov. 1, 2018

Abstract Despite evidence of increasing precipitation extremes, corresponding for increases in flooding remains elusive. If anything, flood magnitudes are decreasing despite widespread claims by the climate community that if extremes increase, floods must also. In this commentary we suggest reasons why extreme rainfall not resulting flooding. Among possible mechanisms responsible, identify decreases antecedent soil moisture, storm extent, and snowmelt. We argue understanding link between changes is a grand challenge hydrologic deserving increased attention.

Language: Английский

Citations

447
A novel deep learning neural network approach for predicting flash flood susceptibility: A case study at a high frequency tropical storm area DOI

Dieu Tien Bui,

Nhat‐Duc Hoang, Francisco Martínez‐Álvarez

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 701, P. 134413 - 134413

Published: Sept. 12, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

331
Influence of changes in rainfall and soil moisture on trends in flooding DOI
Conrad Wasko, Rory Nathan

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 575, P. 432 - 441

Published: May 18, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

289
A novel hybrid approach based on a swarm intelligence optimized extreme learning machine for flash flood susceptibility mapping DOI
Dieu Tien Bui, Phuong Thao Thi Ngo, Tien Dat Pham

et al.

CATENA, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 179, P. 184 - 196

Published: April 17, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

270
Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change DOI
Conrad Wasko, Rory Nathan, Lina Stein

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 603, P. 126994 - 126994

Published: Sept. 27, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

200
Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management DOI Creative Commons
Louise Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25(7), P. 3897 - 3935

Published: July 7, 2021

Abstract. Hydroclimatic extremes such as intense rainfall, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wind or storms have devastating effects each year. One of the key challenges for society is understanding how these are evolving likely to unfold beyond their historical distributions under influence multiple drivers changes in climate, land cover, other human factors. Methods analysing hydroclimatic advanced considerably recent decades. Here we provide a review drivers, metrics, methods detection, attribution, management, projection nonstationary extremes. We discuss issues uncertainty associated with approaches (e.g. arising from insufficient record length, spurious nonstationarities, incomplete representation sources modelling frameworks), examine empirical simulation-based frameworks analysis extremes, identify gaps future research.

Language: Английский

Citations

197
Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean DOI
Yves Tramblay, Samuel Somot

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 151(2), P. 289 - 302

Published: Sept. 25, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

167
Drivers of soil salinity and their correlation with climate change DOI Open Access

Deepthi Eswar,

Rajan Karuppusamy,

S. Chellamuthu

et al.

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 50, P. 310 - 318

Published: Jan. 14, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

167
Does the Hook Structure Constrain Future Flood Intensification Under Anthropogenic Climate Warming? DOI
Jiabo Yin, Shenglian Guo, Pierre Gentine

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2021

Abstract Atmospheric moisture holding capacity increases with temperature by about 7% per °C according to the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship. Thermodynamically then, precipitation intensity should exponentially intensify and thus worsen flood conditions as climate warms. However, regional global analyses often report a nonmonotonic (hook) scaling of runoff, in which extremes strengthen rising up maximum or peak point (T pp ) decline thereafter. The underlying cause this hook structure is not yet well‐understood, whether it may shift and/or regulate storm runoff under anthropogenic warming remains unknown. Here, we examine different using observations large ensemble hydroclimatic simulations over mainland China. In situ suggest spatially homogeneous, negative response relative humidity climates 34.6% land area, remaining hook‐dominated regions usually show colder T than that extremes. streamflow series China's catchments throughout 21st century are projected model cascade chain high‐end emission scenario (RCP 8.5), involves 31 CMIP5 models, 11 CMIP6 members, daily bias correction method, four lumped conceptual hydrological models. projects structures toward warmer bins, resulting 10%–30% China, while more severe future climates.

Language: Английский

Citations

113
An Overview of Flood Concepts, Challenges, and Future Directions DOI
Ashok K. Mishra,

Sourav Mukherjee,

Bruno Merz

et al.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 27(6)

Published: March 24, 2022

This review provides a broad overview of the current state flood research, challenges, and future directions. Beginning with discussion flood-generating mechanisms, synthesizes literature on forecasting, multivariate nonstationary frequency analysis, urban flooding, remote sensing floods. Challenges research directions are outlined highlight emerging topics where more work is needed to help mitigate risks. It anticipated that systems will likely have significant risk due compounding effects continued climate change land-use intensification. The timely prediction floods, quantification socioeconomic impacts developing mitigation strategies continue be challenging. There need bridge scales between model capabilities end-user needs by integrating multiscale models, stakeholder input, social citizen science input for monitoring, mapping, dissemination. Although much progress has been made in using applications, recent upcoming Earth Observations provide excellent potential unlock additional benefits applications. community can benefit from downscaled, as well ensemble scenarios consider changes. Efforts also data assimilation approaches, especially ingest local, citizen, media data. Also enhanced compound hazards assess reduce vulnerability impacts. dynamic complex interactions climate, societal change, watershed processes, human factors often confronted deep uncertainty highlights transdisciplinary science, policymakers, stakeholders vulnerability.

Language: Английский

Citations

96